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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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little bit of a change there....:blink: what a piece of crap model.

I would guess it's not done changing either. Do you think it finally has it, or will it transition even more? I truly have not idea where it's heading. By the time it finally arrives, it may have given snow and taken away snow from just about everyone in the SE.

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Looks like it Misses DC and then curves back into New England. I think another storm did that earlier this season. Anyway, if yo look at the 850 temps, you can clearly see how the GFS is seeing dynamic cooling, then when precip is over, we warm up for a few hours aloft, then the cold advection kicks in. We pull it out by the skin of our teeth, honestly those are th best snows, if you like high rates. Of course now all eyes on GEM and the Euro. Lets hope we keep this track. It would be good for southern half of TN, northern and central Ala, Mis, GA and western CArolinas, and turning to snow eastern Carolinas. The qpf is very low on this run.

maybe the christmas storm? it seems like we got a lot of snow, and NE had the blizzard and the MA pretty much missed out

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Good post Brandon...

Love the jump in that time frame.. and yes POS model....

little bit of a change there....:blink: what a piece of crap model.

So true man...

I would guess it's not done changing either. Do you think it finally has it, or will it transition even more? I truly have not idea where it's heading. By the time it finally arrives, it may have given snow and taken away snow from just about everyone in the SE.

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what may be more amusing, is now that the gfs is catching on, the euro will start to loose it like the last couple of events. if it does, then roars back at the last minute and the RUC shows copious qpf we could be in business for yet another really good se winter storm

lol i was posting the above when you were posting this. i agree and am getting fairly excited again. i know its still far out, but jeesh this really does seem to be sort of following the trends and pattern with the se storms all winter

The Euro has a dark sense of humor, I'm sure the 12Z or 0Z will show an inland runner lol. While it's far from a lock at this point (what I'd give to have another 1/9-10 storm with plentiful cold air), the GFS coming on board to some extent is pretty inspiring. I tend to go easy on FFC, but now that their favorite model the GFS is on board there is no reason to continue being so pessimistic assuming the rest of the 12Z suite looks bullish. Even the NAM shows sig. snow for parts of the CWA, if not for the immediate metro area. I know I gave them a pass last night, but with fresh model data starting to strongly suggest a major winter storm for at least the far N CWA they need to start speaking up.

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HP seems to me that it is sliding out. At 90, it is centered WELL east of Maine. That seems to fit the fact that the GFS has GSO hitting 45 Tuesday afternoon and 48 on Wednesday afternoon. Sure 850's stay around freezing, but if the hp were "locked in", temps would be MUCH colder. My thoughts are that will the track of the lp, we'll see the hp start to hold in a little better. Otherwise, it's going to be a cold rain or a warm/wet snow for alot of folks. I think it will make the turn as opposed to ots.

TW

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If the high stays in place during the storm it's an epic win for Brandon.

Well i don't think it's going to stay in place per say, but i woudn't be surprised if we see some of the models slow down with how fast they are pulling it out. I just hope folks are buckled up. This is going to be a wild ride. UKMET is now inland, gfs is off the coast, euro is in the middle.

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The fine line you mentioned is how (at least in the foothills of WNC) we score big snows. Heavy rates, large flakes blacking out the sky.. All around 34-30 degrees.

I was at 34 for most of the day on 12/25 and scored 5"...

HP seems to me that it is sliding out. At 90, it is centered WELL east of Maine. That seems to fit the fact that the GFS has GSO hitting 45 Tuesday afternoon and 48 on Wednesday afternoon. Sure 850's stay around freezing, but if the hp were "locked in", temps would be MUCH colder. My thoughts are that will the track of the lp, we'll see the hp start to hold in a little better. Otherwise, it's going to be a cold rain or a warm/wet snow for alot of folks. I think it will make the turn as opposed to ots.

TW

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Well i don't think it's going to stay in place per say, but i woudn't be surprised if we see some of the models slow down with how fast they are pulling it out. I just hope folks are buckled up. This is going to be a wild ride. UKMET is now inland, gfs is off the coast, euro is in the middle.

Well that's what I meant, you were all over that high staying in place a little longer.....it's the roller coaster now.

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Looks like it Misses DC and then curves back into New England. I think another storm did that earlier this season. Anyway, if yo look at the 850 temps, you can clearly see how the GFS is seeing dynamic cooling, then when precip is over, we warm up for a few hours aloft, then the cold advection kicks in. We pull it out by the skin of our teeth, honestly those are th best snows, if you like high rates. Of course now all eyes on GEM and the Euro. Lets hope we keep this track. It would be good for southern half of TN, northern and central Ala, Mis, GA and western CArolinas, and turning to snow eastern Carolinas. The qpf is very low on this run.

Enjoy your analysis very much. One question. What do you think about surface temps for somewhere like Huntsville, Al...models keep trying to show it as rain and above freezing, with over an inch of QPF. Should we be worried about that?

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I'll bet the Euro goes more with the GFS and is further SE with the low (compared to last nights run) but further NW with the precip...just got that feeling on it.

I hope your feeling is correct. I'm kind of leaning towards a track of the 0z euro. Not as good for my area but if I had to say, that's the track I would go with.

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BooHoo GFS gives me .04 of snow. lol :stun:

But I would bet it will be a Inland track rather than a coastal track ! I just hope not to far Inland........ :raining:

Stop wishcasting! Just kidding. :thumbsup: I'd bet on a more inland solution as this has plenty of time for the models to flip back what they were showing 24-48 hours ago. I do, however, like the trend for MBY. It's just that daggon' 0c line, no matter where the track, it's over my house.:yikes:

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I do believe phil882 posted verification rankings for the models that had the Ukie coming out on top (or near the top at least):whistle:

A MET from the NY board was stating just because the UK is ranked 2nd does not necessarily mean it handles EC storms the 2nd best. This was earlier in the week.

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I have to disagree with you about the surface high; it is completely offshore by hour 72. There is a weak hybrid-cad signature for a while, but I think it's pretty obvious that we quickly lose all caa as we progress beyond 72 hours.

What is your opinion of precip type in the Triangle, based on the GFS specifically? The track appears to be favorable, with the low strengthening. That looks good, but the cold seems to still be marginal.

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GFS looks good for me .04 qpf :arrowhead:

I was waiting on you after I saw that doughnot hole show up. Trust me this would give you atleast a .5 qpf id be willing to bet. Every model that runs, with the exception of the now late to the party gfs(screwed up qpf ) has you in all snow no matter how you slice it. After last night runs, Id say with strong confidence pilot is in the same boat with you in regards to not having to worry about any 850 gimmicks. Powerstroke should feel pretty safe as well. From me east is where the transition line will waver. I feel pretty good after last night euro/ukie. GFS track is right on par with those 2 models. Its the track and the point of negative tilt Im interested in. Also I feel the theory of HP sliding out fast/scouring CAD/50/50 absent e.t.c doesnt carry as much weight up our way like it does down in NE GA/Upstate at the moment if the storm will come on in Tuesday. Been good trends for the Triad since last night, with maybe the exception of the 12z NAM.

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