burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 From a pure QPF perspective folks in WNC will not be happy but oh boy does this thing look sweet...then again not paying to much attention to temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh it's on it's knees doing something on this run, but in the interest of keeping the board PG I won't say what. HAHA I was heading in the same direction but reconsidered at the last moment. It's good to see the GFS now back in the game... very little doubt a storm is coming now with all models pointing at it. Just need to hammer out the specifics now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason its QPF field looks off, for such a neg. tilt trough in South GA. But its a major snow in Ala, northern GA, even to ATL burbs I think, western SC and NC, west of 77 esp. through. The low goes to 996 just off MYR. I agree Robert...a 996 off MYR would have a lot more qpf than being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you have not been following a persons forecast its kind of hard for you to Jump on this crew. The problem you have is they threw out big numbers for this same area for the Christmas storm and the Storm two weeks ago well in advance even with all the model flip flops and you do realize they were correct while others like the NWS were not...Kind of something to add in when you want to call them out IMO. Huff has been around longer than 95% of those on the board. He knows his stuff. Just his opinion like everyone else's thoughts at this time. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason its QPF field looks off, for such a neg. tilt trough in South GA. But its a major snow in Ala, northern GA, even to ATL burbs I think, western SC and NC, west of 77 esp. through. The low goes to 996 just off MYR. Yea I was thinking the same thing, it really wants to kill the qpf on this run....It looks like the Christmas track but much stronger and we see how that one turned out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 From a pure QPF perspective folks in WNC will not be happy but oh boy does this thing look sweet...then again not paying to much attention to temp profiles. Yea I was thinking the same thing, it really wants to kill the qpf on this run....It looks like the Christmas track but much stronger and we see how that one turned out for us. yes (and as foothills pointed out) qpf isnt all that impressive for a lot on the nw side, but at least the gfs is looking better than yesterday. this winter even when models arent showing what we want this far out, as long as the storm is there and cold air around, within the last day the models have all generally started upping the qpf amounts. so until mon/tue when there is still no qpf i wont really worry about what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Has anyone noticed the HP nosing into SE as the low rolls thru the SE? This has been building with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I seriously, seriously doubt the GFS has this even remotely nailed down. It has gone from no storm to snowstorm in one run. It is just catching on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason its QPF field looks off, for such a neg. tilt trough in South GA. But its a major snow in Ala, northern GA, even to ATL burbs I think, western SC and NC, west of 77 esp. through. The low goes to 996 just off MYR. Do you think this would include Athens? Looks like the temps are too high for the majority of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yes (and as foothills pointed out) qpf isnt all that impressive for a lot on the nw side, but at least the gfs is looking better than yesterday If this trend keeps up we have nothing to worry about. Almost every storm has more qpf on the NW side...of course for MBY I love this run for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How are the temp profiles for Central and Eastern NC? I agree Robert...a 996 off MYR would have a lot more qpf than being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I seriously, seriously doubt the GFS has this even remotely nailed down. It has gone from no storm to snowstorm in one run. It is just catching on... what may be more amusing, is now that the gfs is catching on, the euro will start to loose it like the last couple of events. if it does, then roars back at the last minute and the RUC shows copious qpf we could be in business for yet another really good se winter storm If this trends keeps up we have nothing to worry about. Almost every storm has more qpf on the NW side...of course for MBY I love this run for obvious reasons. lol i was posting the above when you were posting this. i agree and am getting fairly excited again. i know its still far out, but jeesh this really does seem to be sort of following the trends and pattern with the se storms all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Do you think this would include Athens? Looks like the temps are too high for the majority of the event. Farley Dawg....you're last 3 posts have been about " how much/what is it like for Athens " Please read and stop posting these IMBY questions. It's far too early to nail down specifics anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I seriously, seriously doubt the GFS has this even remotely nailed down. It has gone from no storm to snowstorm in one run. It is just catching on... I agree...Even though the gfs shows a lot better track for my area, I have a hard time trusting it is correct w/ the way it's been bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great run for RDU, starts as rain changes to snow, if QPF was higher it would change quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 850 low goes from central GA to central SC. The warmest CLT gets at 850 is +2, but crashes with collapsing heights and dynamic cooling. A very wet snow , and if it high enough in rates, then the kind that is damaging to trees and structures. The QPF isn't all that great, and doesnt' match its 5H field too well, but its much more reasonable with how this evolves, and those will come up with time. I like how the surface high stays completely inland throughout our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks to me that the GFS holds the high pressure in Maine for about six hours longer than the NAM. Look what a difference that makes in sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great run for RDU, starts as rain changes to snow, if QPF was higher it would change quick. .51" I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lolz...this thing is a heartbreaker for the MA if this run verfied. Check out those cold temps coming after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 850 low directly over the Charleston area at 90: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 little bit of a change there.... what a piece of crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 on twister, the snowfall map from the gfs (yeah i know about its realiability) is really popping out the amounts at hour 84 in nw ga and a lot of n alabama. even though amounts are in question, when it does show at least some accumulating snow this year we have usually seen at least some falling little bit of a change there.... what a piece of crap model. lol - thats pretty amusing. nice graphical representation of why we say dont fret over just one model run this far out. from nothing to BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the high stays in place during the storm it's an epic win for Brandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS looks good for me .04 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 850 low directly over the Charleston area at 90: If that verified I think we might be buried there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 .51" I'll take it! If, and this is a big if, the gfs was correct those numbers would be a lot higher imo...A severe neg tilt w/ a 996 mb sfc low off or MYR should be much higher qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the high stays in place during the storm it's an epic win for Brandon. no doubt. he and foothills have been spot on this year so far. If, and this is a big if, the gfs was correct those numbers would be a lot higher imo...A severe neg tilt w/ a 996 mb sfc low off or MYR should be much higher qpf wise. which is why i am getting sort of excited....after watching some of our posters (see above!) be very accurate with the amounts and set up, i would think it will go higher. most of ga and the upstate gets at least .50 with this run. so anything additional is a major bonus. i cant believe i am saying this for the se, but i do believe the amounts will increase (how long has it been prior to this year when we could say that of a se winter system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lolz...this thing is a heartbreaker for the MA if this run verfied. Check out those cold temps coming after the storm. Looks like it Misses DC and then curves back into New England. I think another storm did that earlier this season. Anyway, if yo look at the 850 temps, you can clearly see how the GFS is seeing dynamic cooling, then when precip is over, we warm up for a few hours aloft, then the cold advection kicks in. We pull it out by the skin of our teeth, honestly those are th best snows, if you like high rates. Of course now all eyes on GEM and the Euro. Lets hope we keep this track. It would be good for southern half of TN, northern and central Ala, Mis, GA and western CArolinas, and turning to snow eastern Carolinas. The qpf is very low on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 on twister, the snowfall map from the gfs (yeah i know about its realiability) is really popping out the amounts at hour 84 in nw ga and a lot of n alabama. even though amounts are in question, when it does show at least some accumulating snow this year we have usually seen at least some falling At hr 90 it even gives CAE some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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