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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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I hope for his sake he doesn't have to eat crow. Sure wouldn't be a safe thing to do... putting out a forecast like that.

Right--its the wording issue. I see no issue with-- "the model data shows a strong potential for a LARGE snowfall" open ended--- not concrete. He didn't really throw out as a guess--just like a matter of fact, we are going to get 7-12 inches.

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Right--its the wording issue. I see no issue with-- "the model data shows a strong potential for a LARGE snowfall" open ended--- not concrete. He didn't really throw out as a guess--just like a matter of fact, we are going to get 7-12 inches.

you are correct, however, when people in the se hear snow, they tend to start going bananas. to hear 7" or more in the se can cause near toilet paper, bread and milk panic mode

heres to hoping the gfs starts playing catch up with this run...

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you are correct, however, when people in the se hear snow, they tend to start going bananas. to hear 7" or more in the se can cause near toilet paper, bread and milk panic mode

heres to hoping the gfs starts playing catch up with this run...

Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T

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Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T

i could probably count on one hand (or at the most both hands) the number of times 'wrap around' moisture has given accumulations in much of n ga. seeing as how the last storm was the biggest for this county since 1993 i would be wary of getting two storms bigger than that one in the same winter, let alone within the same month

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Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T

Where on any model is there a storm that even comes close to the strength of the Superstorm when it was in the south. I've yet to see anything that comes close.

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Not your normal wraparound here..could be in the deformation zone to the NW of the low.

yes, its just that historically (or least in my memory) this doesnt happen much. honestly, being under the deformation zone is something i never take for granted or think about until i am nowcasting and see the radar and its movement. otherwise i could set myself up for major disappointment.

out to 78 on the gfs isnt looking too bad.

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Insanely early to throw out big numbers ---especially for the south.

If you have not been following a persons forecast its kind of hard for you to Jump on this crew. The problem you have is they threw out big numbers for this same area for the Christmas storm and the Storm two weeks ago well in advance even with all the model flip flops and you do realize they were correct while others like the NWS were not...Kind of something to add in when you want to call them out IMO.

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@78 looks like it's starting to go negative, the low is off of the AL coast...this doesn't look like it'll be an inland runner.

True. I would highly doubt the GFS would go from nothing to an inland runner in one run. Will take several runs for its solution to evolve - if indeed it has been wrong all along. What it evolves to is anyone's guess.

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