Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I hope for his sake he doesn't have to eat crow. Sure wouldn't be a safe thing to do... putting out a forecast like that. Right--its the wording issue. I see no issue with-- "the model data shows a strong potential for a LARGE snowfall" open ended--- not concrete. He didn't really throw out as a guess--just like a matter of fact, we are going to get 7-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 @48 the energy out west is a little weaker then the NAM but it certainly is giving in to the solution the NAM and Euro have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Right--its the wording issue. I see no issue with-- "the model data shows a strong potential for a LARGE snowfall" open ended--- not concrete. He didn't really throw out as a guess--just like a matter of fact, we are going to get 7-12 inches. you are correct, however, when people in the se hear snow, they tend to start going bananas. to hear 7" or more in the se can cause near toilet paper, bread and milk panic mode heres to hoping the gfs starts playing catch up with this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 @51 the GFS looks like it might be a little west with our 500mb energy which could bode well for us, you never know though it might make a sharp turn towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Indeed. GFS finally seeing that energy back over MT and WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dont now if anyone mentioned it but the NOGAPS did indeed go a little east at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is indeed further west...maybe 50-100 miles? Could make all the difference though. Lets see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you are correct, however, when people in the se hear snow, they tend to start going bananas. to hear 7" or more in the se can cause near toilet paper, bread and milk panic mode heres to hoping the gfs starts playing catch up with this run... Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T i could probably count on one hand (or at the most both hands) the number of times 'wrap around' moisture has given accumulations in much of n ga. seeing as how the last storm was the biggest for this county since 1993 i would be wary of getting two storms bigger than that one in the same winter, let alone within the same month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i could probably count on one hand (or at the most both hands) the number of times 'wrap around' moisture has given accumulations in much of n ga But when it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, and he is talking from wrap around (words meaning fail most times around here). He must be buying the 93 similarity in strength. T Where on any model is there a storm that even comes close to the strength of the Superstorm when it was in the south. I've yet to see anything that comes close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i could probably count on one hand (or at the most both hands) the number of times 'wrap around' moisture has given accumulations in much of n ga Not your normal wraparound here..could be in the deformation zone to the NW of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol GFS is finally catching on...@72 our low is just off the LA and MS coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the GFS has changed its tune big time. The height field is colder than NAM and 850's as well. Its a smidge further east with the developing neutral tilt trough right at the Tx/La border.With strong damming and a well inland high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Where on any model is there a storm that even comes close to the strength of the Superstorm when it was in the south. I've yet to see anything that comes close. The Euro is pretty close to a big storm at least in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 @78 looks like it's starting to go negative, the low is off of the AL coast...this doesn't look like it'll be an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dont now if anyone mentioned it but the NOGAPS did indeed go a little east at 6z. Though it's precipitation shield probably should be larger(especially to the west where I live, lol), that would be the inland track I envision this storm taking. I'll bet the Euro is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At 78 the low is in the northeast Gulf. Much colder everywhere, big hit for a lot of folks. The zero line at 850 is right along 85 from GSO to GSP to Lake Lanier, but works west after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not your normal wraparound here..could be in the deformation zone to the NW of the low. yes, its just that historically (or least in my memory) this doesnt happen much. honestly, being under the deformation zone is something i never take for granted or think about until i am nowcasting and see the radar and its movement. otherwise i could set myself up for major disappointment. out to 78 on the gfs isnt looking too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow @84 this could be the run WNC was waiting for on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Insanely early to throw out big numbers ---especially for the south. If you have not been following a persons forecast its kind of hard for you to Jump on this crew. The problem you have is they threw out big numbers for this same area for the Christmas storm and the Storm two weeks ago well in advance even with all the model flip flops and you do realize they were correct while others like the NWS were not...Kind of something to add in when you want to call them out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 @78 looks like it's starting to go negative, the low is off of the AL coast...this doesn't look like it'll be an inland runner. True. I would highly doubt the GFS would go from nothing to an inland runner in one run. Will take several runs for its solution to evolve - if indeed it has been wrong all along. What it evolves to is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL the GFS looks to be down on two knees bowing to the EURO! Big steps in the right direction, finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BOOM! @90 that sucker is bombing off of CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 (Twitter) Hmmm...Weather guy at WAFF (NBC Huntsville) calling for 7-12" of snow Tues afternoon in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 goes negative at hr 87...bombs away at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL the GFS looks to be down on two knees bowing to the EURO! Big steps in the right direction, finally Oh it's on it's knees doing something on this run, but in the interest of keeping the board PG I won't say what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol CLT would get buried this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the magical blue line sure does look contorted at 90 lol (esp over alabama) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For some reason its QPF field looks off, for such a neg. tilt trough in South GA. But its a major snow in Ala, northern GA, even to ATL burbs I think, western SC and NC, west of 77 esp. through. The low goes to 996 just off MYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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