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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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This thing has fail written all over it in my view. I hate to say it but that is where I am right now. The parent high will likely already be offshore as this thing arrives leaving only in-situ CAD in place. Without a sufficient cold air feed and warming aloft freezing rain could occur and its latent heat release would kill the wedge in addition to any potential scouring out. Anyway I just don't see the formula for a major snow for most in NC right now. Perhaps I am missing something? Any inland track would not be helpful either. I know there was talk of this potentiallly "generating its own cold air" but we shall see if that can happen. In the meantime I will be sure to have the rain boots ready.

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Very true. NAM at 84....lol

Im with you, until it is snowing, game is not ON yet.....

This is going to be now cast storm (like 12/25 was)

Interestingly enough it seems like the last two storms that came from the gulf ended up being a little more south and east in the end? Maybe we can luck out with this one and be in the money zone. It seems to me it's usually the precip shield that ends up more NW.

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its going to depend on where the new 5H energy begins to sharpen up at . Most models were a little east of the Tx region, but the NAM is there, it could be that way, these things are tricky and could be unknown for another day or even 2. Either way, I still like the idea of big snow in N. Ala, N. Miss (much of miss. later on) and southern half of TN, as either track is still going to get them. The further south and not inland track would allow N. GA and the western CArolinas on mostly snow, but as it its with the NAM, they will have to wait until the 850 low comes by, similar to the March 2009 storm.

Or March 1993 storm

that dropped 20+ in NW GA..:whistle:

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its going to depend on where the new 5H energy begins to sharpen up at . Most models were a little east of the Tx region, but the NAM is there, it could be that way, these things are tricky and could be unknown for another day or even 2. Either way, I still like the idea of big snow in N. Ala, N. Miss (much of miss. later on) and southern half of TN, as either track is still going to get them. The further south and not inland track would allow N. GA and the western CArolinas on mostly snow, but as it its with the NAM, they will have to wait until the 850 low comes by, similar to the March 2009 storm.

It is looking more and more like the Euro and Canadian have a better handle on this. That 12z NAM solution is the farthest west I've seen. So, I'm tempted to think it's too far west. Maybe some new data is changing its solution. I really don't know. It started this business last night at 6z. I would think Chattanooga to SW VA would probably get hammered w/ this track. I'd say if the Euro holds its line from last night, your map will look pretty good.

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Any guess on the GFS? I just can't see it going the way of the 00z and 6z like it had. I'm still confused as to why the NAM and GFS look so night and day using the same data for initialization. Guess that higher resolution just is working it's magic right now on the NAM

Burger, are you getting any smow/flurries from this small band passing through metro CLT on radar?

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I'm so confident it's going to snow, I willing to bet New England Patriots Beat New York Jets. ( as good as the storm looks, things can go wrong and little details end up being big ones)

Unfortunately, I see the west trend is starting, but like Robert said it is the nam.

This is a rare storm indeed, because hardly ever do storms produce their own cold. That's why I have some doubts . I must also say that this thing could still cut up and be a APPS runner.

But, on the positive we have the european models on our side

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I must say the way things are setting up CLT could be in for a heartbreak as we could just be on the outside of the cutoff for really good stuff, this is one of those storms I'll be sweating out until I see the snow falling and even then I'll be worried.

I keep telling you that snow triangle on your profile is a jinx. Take it off for one storm.

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Any guess on the GFS? I just can't see it going the way of the 00z and 6z like it had. I'm still confused as to why the NAM and GFS look so night and day using the same data for initialization. Guess that higher resolution just is working it's magic right now on the NAM

I wouldn't lose much sleep on the 0z NAM @ 84 BTW - I'm sure you already know that. Just words of encouragement. The models that matter show a much more favorable solution at 0z. We'll see if they hold at 0z. I have a feeling they will be close to 0z. And who really knows w/ the GFS? Maybe it scores a coup - maybe.

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I wouldn't lose much sleep on the 0z NAM @ 84 BTW - I'm sure you already know that. Just words of encouragement. The models that matter show a much more favorable solution at 0z. We'll see if they hold at 0z. I have a feeling they will be close to 0z. And who really knows w/ the GFS? Maybe it scores a coup - maybe.

Hey I would love for you guys to get hammered. Looks like MS would be in for a historic storm if it verified which would be really cool and I'd be willing to take some rain for that thumbsupsmileyanim.gif (I know you weren't implying this just saying).

Yea I guess it's happened before but I can't remember the differences being that extreme in the NAM and GFS.

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I'm gonna say this is the run where the GFS joins the party. It should go back to something similar to it's 00z run from a couple nights ago. This would make me feel a tad bit more comfortable with the solution of a big storm. Even if the GFS doesn't come in with a solution near the other models, we'll just say throw it out, so we might as well not even look at the 12z, lets just throw it out before it comes out.

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This thing has fail written all over it in my view. I hate to say it but that is where I am right now. The parent high will likely already be offshore as this thing arrives leaving only in-situ CAD in place. Without a sufficient cold air feed and warming aloft freezing rain could occur and its latent heat release would kill the wedge in addition to any potential scouring out. Anyway I just don't see the formula for a major snow for most in NC right now. Perhaps I am missing something? Any inland track would not be helpful either. I know there was talk of this potentiallly "generating its own cold air" but we shall see if that can happen. In the meantime I will be sure to have the rain boots ready.

You are not missing anything. What, from a meteorological standpoint is going to keep this bombing storm from going right up through the heart of the Piedmont or even farther west? What? Certainly not the wedge-producing high that's moving at light speed off the NE coast. Certainly not the strong shortwave digging way to the west. Certainly not the non-existent -NAO. Certainly not the non-existent 50/50 low. Certainly not because the Euro and Ukie shows it. I have been looking for some physical reason that this might bomb out farther east and then track up the coast, either along the coast or just offshore. I can't find it. The only real trend I see is that the NE high continues to slip away before the storm moves in. That is unfavorable on just about every level.

The only thing that would promote a farther eastward track is a weaker system in this case, maybe owing to the kicker shortwave. And a weaker system would have less dynamics and generate less cold air. Again, without the high staying in the NE or a new one moving in, predominately rain all around, except maybe extreme western NC. I know we all want this not to track too far inland, but where am I wrong here?

I think we need to start thinking about severe weather with this.

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Hey I would love for you guys to get hammered. Looks like MS would be in for a historic storm if it verified which would be really cool and I'd be willing to take some rain for that thumbsupsmileyanim.gif (I know you weren't implying this just saying).

Yea I guess it's happened before but I can't remember the differences being that extreme in the NAM and GFS.

I think the varying solutions basically imply that nobody is out of this yet - not by a long shot. It's been easy to get small snows in NE TN this season, but the pattern has rarely yielded a 4+ outside of the mountains. That said, it's been a great winter here, considering past winters of the decade. It has been almost wall-to-wall cold since Dec. 2nd. That has been what is most impressive here for the winter. For NE TN to get into decent snow w/ these set-ups, the slp has to track somewhat inland and to the northeast. Unfortunately, it means others get rain who are on this board. Usually we are wishing for two different set-ups, which stinks. As a side note, it has been impressive how long the mountains have held snow since early December. Usually a thaw melts some of it, but I don't think Roan Mountain(@ Carver's Gap) has lost snow all winter.

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This thing has fail written all over it in my view. I hate to say it but that is where I am right now. The parent high will likely already be offshore as this thing arrives leaving only in-situ CAD in place. Without a sufficient cold air feed and warming aloft freezing rain could occur and its latent heat release would kill the wedge in addition to any potential scouring out. Anyway I just don't see the formula for a major snow for most in NC right now. Perhaps I am missing something? Any inland track would not be helpful either. I know there was talk of this potentiallly "generating its own cold air" but we shall see if that can happen. In the meantime I will be sure to have the rain boots ready.

This bolded can also be said as "its gonna rain" or at least that is my experiance 99% of the time I hear those words used. It appears that we are looking at this needing to be weak and strung out if we want a period of winter weather before mixing out and any storng storm would be all rain here at least. If it does bomb I want it way west so I can at least maybe get a DP and temp spike and some severe weather out of it.

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I'm gonna say this is the run where the GFS joins the party. It should go back to something similar to it's 00z run from a couple nights ago. This would make me feel a tad bit more comfortable with the solution of a big storm. Even if the GFS doesn't come in with a solution near the other models, we'll just say throw it out, so we might as well not even look at the 12z, lets just throw it out before it comes out.

I think you might be right...

Funny how the NYC/PHL thread is hanging its hopes on the GFS and rationalizing its solution. It's certainly possible, I'm just not sure how plausible it is given the extent of modeling that says otherwise.

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12Z NAM, I'll take it and run. Looks like a big snow maker for TN, MS, AL and parts of Georgia. Sorry it does not look good for North Carolina but a good chunk of the SE would make out very well with the 12Z NAM. It's not bad for everyone, not even close. I appreciate the mets not calling this a bad run when many people in the southeast would rack up.

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Not a bad run.Just a little away from the trends. Or a jump to a new trend.. Hard to tell until others show it also...

12Z NAM, I'll take it and run. Looks like a big snow maker for TN, MS, AL and parts of Georgia. Sorry it does not look good for North Carolina but a good chunk of the SE would make out very well with the 12Z NAM. It's not bad for everyone, not even close. I appreciate the mets not calling this a bad run when many people in the southeast would rack up.

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