Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Morristown is normally conservative. I thought this was quite interesting. That said, I still don't like last night's model trends. However, I feel a little more confident w/ the local office gets on board. They have been careful(and correct) in waiting this year to jump on board every event. Probably been their best winter in a long time. Their forecast for the last storm was almost perfect. KTRI's comments: .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN STATES INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE GRADUALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MONDAY TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MIXED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MONDAY. MONDAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INCREASED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS GET SYSTEM MORE DEVELOPED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM/ECMWF DEVELOPING LOW ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST SHIFTING TO THE ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THIS PERIOD CLOSELY ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND NE STORM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRYING FRIDAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My question is this...Being that we are still 3-4 days out what are the most likely changes/trends to the current setup? I haven't been following storms for nearly as long as most of you, but for the time that I have it seems pretty infrequent that the models have it right 4 days out. What are you seeing in the current trends that might take us to what actually verifies?? Thanks in advance!! Trends have been kind of funny w/ this storm. There always seems to be a new "trend" everyday. I would say the latest trend that started on the 0z runs was a strong storm but shifted east some. Who knows if that trend will continue today or will it start working it's way back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That NE High of 1031 looks like it's about to get shoved out to sea by a Great Lakes low at Hour 66. Could have effects on the amount of cold air available in the south, unless of course, the storm creates enough of its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Has anything changed for the piedmont of NC (Specifically Winston-Salem and Greensboro)? Last night when I went to bed, things were a bit discouraging. TWC still has us as a wintry mix for Tues and Wed. Go back and read through the discussion from last night, you obviously went to bed after the gfs and before the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z Nam has a western Gulf low developing at 69 and copious moisture coming north. Its about to close off, very strong s/w in Texas. At 72 hours its about to go neg. tilt West of the Missippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sure looks warm to me -- 850 line on N.C/Va line and Ky/Tenn. line. Surface low stronger and north. 500 map is ungodly -- that thing is about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Inland runner coming up on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 <br />Trends have been kind of funny w/ this storm. There always seems to be a new "trend" everyday. I would say the latest trend that started on the 0z runs was a strong storm but shifted east some. Who knows if that trend will continue today or will it start working it's way back west.<br /><br /><br /><br />If we are throwing out the GFS, the big questions for a lot of us is if this storm hugs the coast or runs up I-95. RAH discussed this yesterday; explaining that a storm running up the I-95 would put RDU in the transition zone (snow-rain-snow). I-95 areas would see mostly rain. A coast hugger would move the transition zone to I-95 providing RDU westward mostly snow. So sorry people out west I'm one of the people wanting the eastward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I see you lurking Robert. Any changes in your thoughts this morning? Also is it a cold or was it the drywall dust? jus got up. Yes it was the drywall dust. Wear a mask ! I feel terrible. Anyway this run is too strong too far west so far, not good for the snow lovers, our 850's are soaring east of the mtns. Also the high is slid out, but we're talking NAM here. It dug the energy so far west in TExas that allowed too much development, but we'll see if the rest of the run stays south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 If it goes neg w of the mississippi prob so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Will be interesting to see if the eastern shift in the 0z models continues in 12z...I don't know enough about what is causing the shift to understand one way or the other. <br /><br /><br /> If we are throwing out the GFS, the big questions for a lot of us is if this storm hugs the coast or runs up I-95. RAH discussed this yesterday; explaining that a storm running up the I-95 would put RDU in the transition zone (snow-rain-snow). I-95 areas would see mostly rain. A coast hugger would move the transition zone to I-95 providing RDU westward mostly snow. So sorry people out west I'm one of the people wanting the eastward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 850s are really far north(VA-MD border!) for those east of the Apps at hour 78. But the surface low seems have dragged the 850s really far south (Baton Rough to Jackson to Huntsville to Knoxville) for those west of the Apps at the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Our only hope with this scenario is a super strong 850 low crashing heights and temps to its north. At this rate, that high is going to be in England by the time the storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is really gonna bomb on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 jus got up. Yes it was the drywall dust. Wear a mask ! I feel terrible. Anyway this run is too strong too far west so far, not good for the snow lovers, our 850's are soaring east of the mtns. Also the high is slid out, but we're talking NAM here. It dug the energy so far west in TExas that allowed too much development, but we'll see if the rest of the run stays south. Ugh, the low is coming way inland! It's just SW of Atlanta at Hour 84. Making the turn way to soon for those of us farther east. But, MI, AL, and TN would get decent snows out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Alabama special on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the good news, if any on the NAM for the Carolinas, is the height field is dropping, the whole time, before the precip gets to us. Its already low to start, so this storm has its own cold air, and the thicknessess aren't warm, so dyanmic cooling is going to play a role, I'd prefer to have lower 850's though. Tn, Al, Ms. are getting hit hard with snow. At 84 hours, its a bowling bowl in Southern Albama at 5H, with the strong 850 low in eastern Central Alabama, heavy duty snow in Alabama NW GA and western NC, points west. Strong dynamic storm and the 5H looks similar to March 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Holy Cow @ H5! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Based on this NAM run, looks like a cold rain for Athens, maybe a brief change over to snow. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the sfc low is 1004 in Columbus GA with heavy snow in much of central/N. Alabama eventually getting to ATL , srn TN and n. Ms. do well too. Use caution on the NAM at this time range, but we'll see if other models trend inland and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the sfc low is 1004 in Columbus GA with heavy snow in much of central/N. Alabama eventually getting to ATL , srn TN and n. Ms. do well too. Use caution on the NAM at this time range, but we'll see if other models trend inland and west. GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!!! THE NAM is a BOMB FOR NW GA ALABAMA SRN TENN :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My thoughts on this event this morning. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snow-today-along-the-coast-more-snow-next-week-for-parts-of-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Folks in MS who see the snow map are going to cream their pants almost the whole state in a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to remember if your in n ga or the western Carolinas this is the warmest part of the storm for us with all the southwe flow. When it moves to our east. Watch out. Massive height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW, the NAM(not so accurate @ 84 I know...) is a big snowstorm for E TN - all of it if it eventually(edit). I'm sure according to this run. I'm w/ Foothills. I'll need to see some other models before I even remotely buy into that solution. I think the key is that it's getting that high out of the way in Maine. That opens the door for an inland runner. As stubborn as the cold has been this year, I'd be surprised to see that high slide off that quick. The European models have been leading the way. Last night, they trended east. I'm quite interested to see their solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I must say the way things are setting up CLT could be in for a heartbreak as we could just be on the outside of the cutoff for really good stuff, this is one of those storms I'll be sweating out until I see the snow falling and even then I'll be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 IT sure does get wound up tight at 84. What a bomb. As stated it is the NAM and should see if the others play the far west game today. the sfc low is 1004 in Columbus GA with heavy snow in much of central/N. Alabama eventually getting to ATL , srn TN and n. Ms. do well too. Use caution on the NAM at this time range, but we'll see if other models trend inland and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW, the NAM(not so accurate @ 84 I know...) is a big snowstorm for E TN. I'm w/ Foothills. I'll need to see some other models before I even remotely buy into that solution. I think the key is that it's getting that high out of the way in Maine. That opens the door for an inland runner. As stubborn as the cold has been this year, I'd be surprised to see that high slide off that quick. The European models have been leading the way. Last night, they trended east. I'm quite interested to see their solutions. its going to depend on where the new 5H energy begins to sharpen up at . Most models were a little east of the Tx region, but the NAM is there, it could be that way, these things are tricky and could be unknown for another day or even 2. Either way, I still like the idea of big snow in N. Ala, N. Miss (much of miss. later on) and southern half of TN, as either track is still going to get them. The further south and not inland track would allow N. GA and the western CArolinas on mostly snow, but as it its with the NAM, they will have to wait until the 850 low comes by, similar to the March 2009 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 IT sure does get wound up tight at 84. What a bomb. As stated it is the NAM and should see if the others play the far west game today. Interestingly enough it seems like the last two storms that came from the gulf ended up being a little more south and east in the end? Maybe we can luck out with this one and be in the money zone. It seems to me it's usually the precip shield that ends up more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very true, As shown, it would produce a lot of qpf in the area you mentioned. People need to remember if your in n ga or the western Carolinas this is the warmest part of the storm for us with all the southwe flow. When it moves to our east. Watch out. Massive height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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