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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


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Everything looks great right now for those of us in western NC. Powerstroke and me were talking last night and we both have one concern. For awhile storms seem to track farther WEST the closer we get to the actual event. So

while I'm excited for the possibility of a nice wallop. I still have to temper my excitement because of a known trend that would possibly move everything west. My area has benefited from those moves west, this is my reason for

concern. When you start hearing the high looks to be moving off shore earlier then we could easily see a more west track, not just less cold air to work with.

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Everything looks great right now for those of us in western NC. Powerstroke and me were talking last night and we both have one concern. For awhile storms seem to track farther WEST the closer we get to the actual event. So

while I'm excited for the possibility of a nice wallop. I still have to temper my excitement because of a known trend that would possibly move everything west. My area has benefited from those moves west, this is my reason for

concern. When you start hearing the high looks to be moving off shore earlier then we could easily see a more west track, not just less cold air to work with.

Robert seems to think we are ok as I mentioned the same thing to him. I would feel better if euro came out today down to Cubathumbsupsmileyanim.gif as all storms for the past year have went west when we needed them too.

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How big of a role will/could dynamic cooling play in an event like this for the I85 corridor in N Ga, upstateSC, and Western NC?

Big difference potentially. Maybe just a little too far out to be very specific right now. As it looks now, it appears to be a very dynamic type of system. It will certainly be a dynamic NOWCast event!

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Lowering heights plus possible heavy rates would the trick for those SE of the 850 line. GSP seems to think

"

AT THIS POINT...BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE WET BULBS...IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85...AND ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR COULD SEE MORE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START OFF AS THEY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CHRISTMAS DAY STORM THOUGH ONCE PRECIP STARTS THEY SHOULD GO RAPIDLY TO ALL SNOW."

Just keep reading today the rates will always be talked about by a Met...

How big of a role will/could dynamic cooling play in an event like this for the I85 corridor in N Ga, upstateSC, and Western NC?

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If I remember correctly he said last week the next storm was ours! guitar.gif Also my Avatar is how much snow I WANT!

Robert seems to think we are ok as I mentioned the same thing to him. I would feel better if euro came out today down to Cubathumbsupsmileyanim.gif as all storms for the past year have went west when we needed them too.

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Before everyone continues quoting the Euro as the gospel- just saw the ensembles and there is a lot of spread at storm time with the majority of members not as deep as the Op.

Just sayin'

But a real key to last night's runs for this area was that the UKMet also moved significantly to the east with its track and was showing a bomb.

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12z NAM rolling -- at 30 hours, actually looks "diggier" than even teh 6z run.

RE: GFS, this is actually like watching a sappy Disney movie where the GFS is the bad guy and you KNOW he's going to lose in the end, but it's still fun watching it happen.

Shortwave a good bit stronger as its digging down

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Has anything changed for the piedmont of NC (Specifically Winston-Salem and Greensboro)? Last night when I went to bed, things were a bit discouraging. TWC still has us as a wintry mix for Tues and Wed.

Depends on when you went to bed. 00z models (except for GFS) trended much better for us as they moved further east representing an eastward shift in the r/s line. Even then, we'll be close.

TW

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Im referring to this

nam_500_030s.gif

Is there a place on here that explains all the weather lingo? What is shortwave? What do you mean by digging?

Im not the person to try to explain. Burgertime has a great link ( I did not save it) about the 500 MB level and S/W and Digging..

Edit..

Here is it http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/

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Has anything changed for the piedmont of NC (Specifically Winston-Salem and Greensboro)? Last night when I went to bed, things were a bit discouraging. TWC still has us as a wintry mix for Tues and Wed.

Not sure why you feel that way. Winston in in a great spot, GSO will be close but probably good. The 2 best models at this range shifted east last night (UK shifted from an Apps runner to a coastal)

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My question is this...Being that we are still 3-4 days out what are the most likely changes/trends to the current setup? I haven't been following storms for nearly as long as most of you, but for the time that I have it seems pretty infrequent that the models have it right 4 days out. What are you seeing in the current trends that might take us to what actually verifies?? Thanks in advance!!

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