phil882 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Would dearly love to be wrong on this one. That said. It would take a truly powerful storm(almost blizzard like proportions) to be powerful enough to drive moisture over the mountains and overcome downsloping issues - if the 0z Euro track was correct tonight w/ an slp in Savannah. The pitfall is if the southeast jog continues. I usually base my thinking on model trends. KTYS and KTRI are much closer on the 0z run to the westward cut-off than the12z run. I have to admit, I did not see the southeast jog coming. Could be a waffle. Might not be. Just got a look at the 0z Euro in 6 hr increments. There are substantial differences in the amount of moisture able to make it up west of the Apps - substantial. @ 12z most of TN was engulfed in moisture. 0z it is very limited to how far north it will carry and how far west it goes. Just by looking at the 850mb streamlines from the Euro, the southeasterly flow makes it into W TN. I'd imagine Knoxville and the Tri-Cities area does pretty well based upon that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Given QPF Verbatim the Eurp paints a nice 6-8" here on the 00Z run. I am just worried once again we will be too for NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This one will probably not be as wound up as 93, but you would certainly have to nit pick to locate differences in track as modeled by the euro. Also this one has plenty of energy west of the apps I've had snow on the ground off and on 99 percent of the winter since late November. If your in upper east TN you will get plenty of NW flow, it may not be orographic upslope but it will accumulate if guidance verifies. I went back and found a loop of the 1993 slp trajectory from the GOM after you mentioned that. The track is admittedly similar. I'll give you that. Never pictured it being that far east. I would just be surprised if it was that strong since '93 is on its own for what it was able to do. I wasn't overly impressed w/ the 0z Euro at six hour increments for the TN Valley - especially for the central and northern locations. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to eat my words...or shovel it. Plenty of time for this to waffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just by looking at the 850mb streamlines from the Euro, the southeasterly flow makes it into W TN. I'd imagine Knoxville and the Tri-Cities area does pretty well based upon that setup. Thanks. I enjoy your write-ups BTW. The trend concerns me more than anything. But really, it's been a nice winter here already - especially w/ the unexpected cold this January. My Dad and I were talking tonight about how this winter seems to have had snow on the ground more than many we can remember. So, while I would be disappointed if this didn't pan out, it's been a great winter so far. On the other hand, Asheville is looking very good at the moment. Edit: Certainly gets cold by the end of its run @ 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 . I wasn't overly impressed w/ the 0z Euro at six hour increments for the TN Valley - especially for the central and northern locations. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to eat my words...or shovel it. Plenty of time for this to waffle. Everybody is entitled to their opinion, but Im just wondering what you need to see to be impressed?? Euro has nearly a inch of qpf for all of east TN, with cooperating BL and 850 temps, not to mention a very strong miller a bomb running up the coast. The Euro has been utterly consistent with this scenario. Im really not seeing any trend concering the dr. One run its slightly west one run its slightly east. Pretty much the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I went back and found a loop of the 1993 slp trajectory from the GOM after you mentioned that. The track is admittedly similar. I'll give you that. Never pictured it being that far east. I would just be surprised if it was that strong since '93 is on its own for what it was able to do. I wasn't overly impressed w/ the 0z Euro at six hour increments for the TN Valley - especially for the central and northern locations. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to eat my words...or shovel it. Plenty of time for this to waffle. I don't know, with that run dumping .84 QPF on TYS with favorable temps, I have a hard time believing that was a shift in the wrong direction for us. I'm all ears to be proven wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Before everyone continues quoting the Euro as the gospel- just saw the ensembles and there is a lot of spread at storm time with the majority of members not as deep as the Op. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Before everyone continues quoting the Euro as the gospel- just saw the ensembles and there is a lot of spread at storm time with the majority of members not as deep as the Op. Just sayin' The 0z GFS ens shows a fair amount of continuity at 96 hrs, not sure how this compares to the EC, but would like your op as you are privy to the EC ens data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't know, with that run dumping .84 QPF on TYS with favorable temps, I have a hard time believing that was a shift in the wrong direction for us. I'm all ears to be proven wrong though. Part of what I look at (mainly what I look at) is the trajectory of the slp as it exits the gulf on its northeast path. Generally, a track through the Piedmont is best for snow in middle and east TN - exiting from the area around New Orleans or Mobile first. The 0z Euro has more of a jog through the Coastal Plain. What I guess I'm saying is that I would be highly surprised to see qpf amounts of that magnitude verify w/ that particular track in relation to the TN Valley. As Cyclonic mentioned there is a counterexample of this happening w/ the '93 storm. But, that was a one-of-a-kind. The northern TN Valley is around .5-.75 qpf. Downslope will eat a good chunk of that. You can actually see the downslope on the qpf printout at 132 for NE TN. In order to overcome downslopling issues and proximity issues w/ regards to a slp, the storm will have to be powerful. Generally, I would say 2-4 inches would fall in the valley when those qpf numbers are shown(because of downslope problems) - if the storm doesn't bomb out. We'll see you all tomorrow at 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z Nam looks a bit slower w/ the slp in the GOM @ 72 hrs. High pressure @ 78 appears to have slid of the coast more so than was depicted on the 0z run. System appears stronger at 6z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't know, with that run dumping .84 QPF on TYS with favorable temps, I have a hard time believing that was a shift in the wrong direction for us. I'm all ears to be proven wrong though. As always, I try not to get too excited about a storm until we are within about 60 hours; that said, it does appear to me anyway that we stand to get another 3"-4" sno out of this, hopefully more, course one would not know it by the NWS out of Nashville, man, sometimes I wonder if they are asleep at the wheel over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep, typical big storm with the city close to the line. It could swith either way for the city, but the north side looks snowier, and the mtns of GA def. a big one. sorry. CAE .85", CHS 1.25" Thanks for the awesome pbp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z NAM @84 looks fantastic to me. Of course the GFS is on the pipe...the scary thing is how strong it's being for no storm...of course if the Euro holds serve at 12z the GFS will probably soon follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z NAM @84 looks fantastic to me. Of course the GFS is on the pipe...the scary thing is how strong it's being for no storm...of course if the Euro holds serve at 12z the GFS will probably soon follow. It does look good, and just for the heck of it, the DGEX follows up with what looks like a favorable set-up for snow for much of NC (Western 1/2 to 2/3?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great Evening update from Brad Travis Chief Met-Huntsville. A good watch. Talks about the possibilities with maps and even throws out a numbers map as an early guess.. Brad Travis Evning Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great Evening update from Brad Travis Chief Met-Huntsville. A good watch. Talks about the possibilities with maps and even throws out a numbers map as an early guess.. Brad Travis Evning Update Depicts the classic snowstorm for the TN Valley; will be interesting for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Snowfall forecast from HPC: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conus.php?element=SnowAmt You will need to click on the arrow at the top of the grapic to get to desired timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's oddly liberating to be pretty muchly written out of this storm so early. Perhaps the consolation prize of much-needed heavy rain and two decent storms already is sufficient. We're cheering for the folks who got shafted Christmas weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z Nam looks amazing already showing the changeover and Major Snow developing in NE BAMA SE TENN and NW GA by Lunchtime Tuesday! 500 Vort.... 6:AM Tuesday: Lunch Tuesday: 850's (Note How they drop drastically between Morning and Noon) 6:AM Tuesday (Note how they are up in Tennessee) Noon Tuesday:(Note they drop all the way down into Central Bama and into South Atlanta.) Keep in mind the Low is still South and West of most area has not even started the climb NE and just started deepning... Now Surface Maps: 6:AM Tuesday Lunch Time Tuesday Low again has not even gone negative and started making the Climb Yet..WOW extrap out and it would be a MAJOR HIT for the Tennessee Valley... From Midnight through Noon Tuesday (12hrs) QPF charts already showing .25 or so of precip in NE Bama and NW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif [/url]http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif Looks like the HPC is still favoring the Euro with regards to QPF. Look at the increase in precip from the 0z (5 day total) and the 12z. This is going to be quite a storm folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man, as long as we can keep the cold air locked in, we're golden. Right now, temps are the ONLY thing I'm worried about. At least I'm NE of Atlanta (20 miles east of Athens) where more of the cold air will be. I know it's four days out but I hate being on the line between massive rain or massive snow. Just a little colder please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just put up a quick morning discussion. The difference between the GFS and essentially every other model is the location of the 500mb energy as it dives into the Lower 48 from Canada. GFS is east of almost everything else, and the result is a much weaker system. All other models bring it in farther west, including the NAM. Fairly amazing the similarities in tracks for the surface low....all (minus GFS) pretty much in general agreement with some expected differences in exact strength and placement. One thing that i do think needs to be noted...the 0z Euro is a little east of the 12z yesterday Euro position with that energy entering the Lower 48 later tomorrow. Don't know if that is a trend or just an adjustment to reality. Again, see the blog, linked below, for more....just finished typing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep 6z Nam has the look to me of Heavy Snow or atleast undergoing the transisition in BHM already at lunch time Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 interesting tidbit from GSP am forecast discussion to show how strong this storm COULD possibly be.. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND SURFACE LOW TRACK STILL CREATES SOME CAUSE FOR CONCERN. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES ITS RECENT TREND OF KEEPING THE TROF WELL NORTH OF THE PREFERRED ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS...AND TAKES IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS SUCH THERE IS NO GULF SURFACE LOW AND IT ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE FA DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE THEIR BULLISH RUN TO RUN TREND OF A DEVELOPING GULF CYCLONE THAT THAT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS...THOUGH THEIR TIMING CONTINUITY IS QUITE EXCELLENT. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHARPEST AND DEEPEST REPRESENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF AS IT TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THE ECMWF WOULD SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE FA STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SLP DROP OF AROUND 31MB BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE QUITE WET AND WOULD GENERATE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. Now keep in mind I think the 93 storm SLP drop in a timeframe like this was 29MB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just put up a quick morning discussion. The difference between the GFS and essentially every other model is the location of the 500mb energy as it dives into the Lower 48 from Canada. GFS is east of almost everything else, and the result is a much weaker system. All other models bring it in farther west, including the NAM. Fairly amazing the similarities in tracks for the surface low....all (minus GFS) pretty much in general agreement with some expected differences in exact strength and placement. One thing that i do think needs to be noted...the 0z Euro is a little east of the 12z yesterday Euro position with that energy entering the Lower 48 later tomorrow. Don't know if that is a trend or just an adjustment to reality. Again, see the blog, linked below, for more....just finished typing it... Thanks for the update! Now all we can do is watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thinking temps may be an issue here in Ga. Maybe more of a change over to snow here in nega (Athens). I guess time will tell. Any thinking from others?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man, as long as we can keep the cold air locked in, we're golden. Right now, temps are the ONLY thing I'm worried about. At least I'm NE of Atlanta (20 miles east of Athens) where more of the cold air will be. I know it's four days out but I hate being on the line between massive rain or massive snow. Just a little colder please. I,ve got a meeting in Buford near the Mall of GA. Does this area generally have the same weather as you in this type of setup? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You know how you feel when you're gut tells you that something big is about to happen? I've been around awhile and probably much older than most of you (55) but I've seen and watched a lot of weather, I don't believe this is going to be an ordinary storm by any stretch of the imagination. The storm of '93 was one of big surprises. From Wikipedia "This marked the first time that National Weather Service meteorologists were able to predict accurately a system's severity five days in advance. Official blizzard warnings were issued two days before the storm arrived, as shorter-range models began to confirm the predictions." If you've never read about it, here it is: http://en.wikipedia...._of_the_Century. "Barometric pressures recorded during the storm were quite low: readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida and lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England. Usually, such low readings near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico are observed only in hurricanes of Category 2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale),[6] or within cyclonic storms out to sea." If we're looking at a 31mb pressure drop in 24 hours... watch out, this could be a very dangerous storm for some people and not to be taken lightly. The storm of '93 killed more than 300 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I love the 5 day totals map!! http://www.hpc.ncep....48iwbg_fill.gif http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif Looks like the HPC is still favoring the Euro with regards to QPF. Look at the increase in precip from the 0z (5 day total) and the 12z. This is going to be quite a storm folks. Great disco from all you late night folks. Since how school, in my county, was out all last week, we are working today Anyway, thanks for listing the QFP amounts Robert. Thanks WeatherNC for putting the data on for the major cites also. Saved a lot of work this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I,ve got a meeting in Buford near the Mall of GA. Does this area generally have the same weather as you in this type of setup? TW Yes it does. The mall is 15 minutes west from me but still the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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