The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)

[Rankin5150]

rough precip amts.. near 1" QPF over most of the SE. Heavier eastern areas, but it's rain.

Are you saying rain for our area Wow? Or implying rain for eastern sections? If eastern sections, where is the cutoff shown? Thanks

[tgarren]

Right in line with UKIe, except about 50 miles inland for track. I can score big with this run, but have no more room for westward track. All in all great runs for Triad espeacilly Ukie,Nogaps and Euro. Nam doesnt go out far enough, but right in line with the 3 I mentioned and I cant remember the Canadian exact track. Then theres the GFS throwing up all over itself.

i have a feeling its going to be one of those storms where your side of the county gets 10 inches and my side gets rain mix and squat.

[FoothillsNC]

This would have a very big snow gradient over the ATL metro- maybe only an inch or two at the airport. a couple- 3 at my house, but up in far northern burbs 6" not out of the question. The mountains- up to a foot.

Yep, typical big storm with the city close to the line. It could swith either way for the city, but the north side looks snowier, and the mtns of GA def. a big one.

Robet, did you happen to have the QPF numbers for CAE? Thanks.

sorry. CAE .85", CHS 1.25"

[Wow]

don't get that inquisitive over QPF right now. just know that's it's significant enough. This looks to be a nearly all snow event ROUGHLY GSO westward. And with the neg tilted, compact but intense mid level system and bombing low crawling up the coastline, there would be widespread foot-plus amounts, especially for the mtns and foothills.

[DLI4SCwx]

.74...almost all rain.

Thanks Jeremy. Almost all rain huh, we need some anyways.

[HWY316wx]

At least 3-5" on this run I would guess....

Given the low pressure I would think this is a conservative guess, I would think snow rates would be pretty intense.

[Wow]

Are you saying rain for our area Wow? Or implying rain for eastern sections? If eastern sections, where is the cutoff shown? Thanks

eastern half of the state, would be mostly rain. These intense, dynamically driven storms tend to have sharp cutoffs between rain and snow. Usually the track of the 850 lows helps determine that.

[griteater]

Are you saying rain for our area Wow? Or implying rain for eastern sections? If eastern sections, where is the cutoff shown? Thanks

Euro would be all snow or nearly all snow for CLT

[snowflake29684]

robert i thought you said it was snowing heavy in cae?

Thanks Jeremy. Almost all rain huh, we need some anyways.

[DLI4SCwx]

Yep, typical big storm with the city close to the line. It could swith either way for the city, but the north side looks snowier, and the mtns of GA def. a big one.

sorry. CAE .85", CHS 1.25"

Thanks for the information on the QPF numbers Robert. Even though it looks like mostly rain, hope we can salvage a lil snow out of this.

[Pilotwx]

Robert, what is the pressure on the storm as it goes north of the VA/NC boarder. If deep enough we could see a major wind event after the storm passes.

i have a feeling its going to be one of those storms where your side of the county gets 10 inches and my side gets rain mix and squat.

[BullCityWx]

eastern half of the state, would be mostly rain

Here's a rough estimation of the rn/sn line in NC:

[Rankin5150]

eastern half of the state, would be mostly rain. These intense, dynamically driven storms tend to have sharp cutoffs between rain and snow. Usually the track of the 850 lows helps determine that.

Thank you sir!

[weatherman566]

Wouldn't we need the low to be futher south to produce more snow for parts of Northern Alabama/Georgia and parts of SC? Or will the dynamics be too strong to just support rain? I am assuming behind the low will be all wrap around/CAA/snow, correct?

Just trying to figure out where the Euro stands based on temperatures both at 850 and near the surface.

[Rankin5150]

Euro would be all snow or nearly all snow for CLT

Thank you!

[BullCityWx]

The euro warms me up to 7.5C on the afternoon after the storm....thats strange.

[phil882]

Its safe to say the GFS is all alone, since the GGEM, UKMET, and EURO all held on to strong amplified solutions. Maybe not as extreme as 12z, but they have much more continuity than the gfs runs.

[Rob]

I take it there is a sharp gradient between Memphis and Nashville. I can not believe we pull out .95" QPF.

[jburns]

Here's a rough estimation of the rn/sn line in NC:

Yep. Right through the center of Randolph county. Pretty normal stuff.

[Rankin5150]

Here's a rough estimation of the rn/sn line in NC:

Thank you Jerms! I do think all of NC and half of SC snow covered to a certain extent before all is said and done, with the dynamics ON THIS RUN of the Euro.

[BullCityWx]

Something really interesting showed up on the GFS extracted data for some of the piedmont locales:

Charlotte:

66 01/24 18Z   42     24     130       6    0.00  0.00    534    551   -3.6 -21.1 1021.7  19          CLR    118FEW140    CLR      42     24 20.0
 72 01/25 00Z   35     28     157       6    0.00  0.00    536    552   -3.1 -21.7 1020.3  51       082BKN113    FEW       CLR      45     34 20.0
 78 01/25 06Z   33     28     194       5    0.00  0.00    536    550   -1.4 -23.6 1018.1  86       070BKN095 208FEW227 227SCT267   36     32 20.0
 84 01/25 12Z   33     33     216       5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -27.6 1015.3  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN253   34     33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   46     35     266       6    0.00  0.00    530    539   -2.0 -31.4 1011.6  79 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      46     33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37     31     350      11    0.05  0.05    527    539   -4.2 -27.3 1014.8  36 -TSSN 039SCT092 122FEW145    CLR      48     37 20.0

Gastonia:

 84 01/25 12Z   33     33     218       5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -28.0 1015.2  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN252   34     33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   47     35     265       6    0.00  0.00    529    539   -2.1 -31.5 1011.7  71 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      47     33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37     30     350      11    0.05  0.04    528    540   -4.3 -26.6 1015.0  30 -TSSN 039SCT093 122FEW145    CLR      48     37 20.0
102 01/26 06Z   27     25     359       6    0.00  0.00    534    550   -5.0 -21.5 1019.5  22 -SN   063FEW111    CLR       CLR      37     27  4.4

[NCSNOW]

i have a feeling its going to be one of those storms where your side of the county gets 10 inches and my side gets rain mix and squat.

Its still early. The exact track is everything as Im sure you already know. NW GOM/SAV/HAT is usually a perfect track for all our county. Good trends for us tonight. I prefer the UKIE track so we can have some breathing room. But as they say in order to get the most/best snow, you gotta be able to smell the rain. I cant count the times we have the transition line with precip types, 32/33 surface temps, qpf come through this county with winter weather events.

[BullCityWx]

Yep. Right through the center of Randolph county. Pretty normal stuff.

No idea where you are in relation to HBI but that station definitely mixes over

[Pilotwx]

Thunder snow?!

Something really interesting showed up on the GFS extracted data for some of the piedmont locales:

Charlotte:

66 01/24 18Z   42 	24 	130   	6    0.00  0.00    534    551   -3.6 -21.1 1021.7  19          CLR    118FEW140    CLR      42 	24 20.0
 72 01/25 00Z   35 	28 	157   	6    0.00  0.00    536    552   -3.1 -21.7 1020.3  51   	082BKN113    FEW   	CLR      45 	34 20.0
 78 01/25 06Z   33 	28 	194   	5    0.00  0.00    536    550   -1.4 -23.6 1018.1  86   	070BKN095 208FEW227 227SCT267   36 	32 20.0
 84 01/25 12Z   33 	33 	216   	5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -27.6 1015.3  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN253   34 	33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   46 	35 	266   	6    0.00  0.00    530    539   -2.0 -31.4 1011.6  79 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      46 	33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37 	31 	350      11    0.05  0.05    527    539   -4.2 -27.3 1014.8  36 -TSSN 039SCT092 122FEW145    CLR      48 	37 20.0

Gastonia:

 84 01/25 12Z   33 	33 	218   	5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -28.0 1015.2  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN252   34 	33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   47 	35 	265   	6    0.00  0.00    529    539   -2.1 -31.5 1011.7  71 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      47 	33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37 	30 	350      11    0.05  0.04    528    540   -4.3 -26.6 1015.0  30 -TSSN 039SCT093 122FEW145    CLR      48 	37 20.0
102 01/26 06Z   27 	25 	359   	6    0.00  0.00    534    550   -5.0 -21.5 1019.5  22 -SN   063FEW111    CLR   	CLR      37 	27  4.4

[Rob]

I take it there is a sharp gradient between Memphis and Nashville. I can not believe we pull out .95" QPF.

Foothills I think BNA is at .48 QPF. Correct me if I am wrong?

[FoothillsNC]

Robert, let me be one of the first to say thank you for the play by play and mentioning every freaking area in the SE. No one should say anything about their BY not getting mentioned.

for CAE region about Tuesday night is the switchover but most of the precip is pulling out. Maybe .20" falls after the switch, or .10"hard to say. There are going to be surprises with this storm, like always, and you can't necessarily go by 850s'. If your close to the line, it could switch instantly depening on rates. The safest call is heavy snow in N. Alabama, N. GA (north of ATL/FFC) to roughly the 85 corridor and points west. Like normal the 85 region could switch either way, but with low heights I'd favor the colder snowier setup, unless the low moves further west than shown .

I made this map before the 00Z ECMWF, but my thoughts still hold after seeing it.

http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com

[phil882]

This looks great for WNC... nice pool of subfreezing 850mb temps.

[Rankin5150]

Something really interesting showed up on the GFS extracted data for some of the piedmont locales:

Charlotte:

66 01/24 18Z   42     24     130       6    0.00  0.00    534    551   -3.6 -21.1 1021.7  19          CLR    118FEW140    CLR      42     24 20.0
 72 01/25 00Z   35     28     157       6    0.00  0.00    536    552   -3.1 -21.7 1020.3  51       082BKN113    FEW       CLR      45     34 20.0
 78 01/25 06Z   33     28     194       5    0.00  0.00    536    550   -1.4 -23.6 1018.1  86       070BKN095 208FEW227 227SCT267   36     32 20.0
 84 01/25 12Z   33     33     216       5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -27.6 1015.3  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN253   34     33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   46     35     266       6    0.00  0.00    530    539   -2.0 -31.4 1011.6  79 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      46     33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37     31     350      11    0.05  0.05    527    539   -4.2 -27.3 1014.8  36 -TSSN 039SCT092 122FEW145    CLR      48     37 20.0

Gastonia:

 84 01/25 12Z   33     33     218       5    0.00  0.00    533    545   -1.6 -28.0 1015.2  98 -RA   040BKN078 165BKN224 225BKN252   34     33  0.5
 90 01/25 18Z   47     35     265       6    0.00  0.00    529    539   -2.1 -31.5 1011.7  71 -RA   041BKN066 114SCT194    CLR      47     33 20.0
 96 01/26 00Z   37     30     350      11    0.05  0.04    528    540   -4.3 -26.6 1015.0  30 -TSSN 039SCT093 122FEW145    CLR      48     37 20.0
102 01/26 06Z   27     25     359       6    0.00  0.00    534    550   -5.0 -21.5 1019.5  22 -SN   063FEW111    CLR       CLR      37     27  4.4

Ugh...rain for CLT with maybe a trace of snow? Is that how that reads Mr. Soundwhisperer? Thanks for any input as you are da man when it comes to data for our area(s)

[BullCityWx]

Thunder snow?!

yeah, strange thing is it only showed up for Gastonia, Charlotte and Rock Hill.

[BullCityWx]

Ugh...rain for CLT with maybe a trace of snow? Is that how that reads Mr. Soundwhisperer? Thanks for any input as you are da man when it comes to data for our area(s)

Well, it doesnt really matter because the GFS is so wrong at this point.