weatherheels Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It it is 50 miles to the west while we are in rain (just a scenario), then I am on a roadtrip to a hotel or something to see it play out. Anyone in? I coudl not sit here with something so awesome right on my doorstep. I'll travel as well if I'm on the rainy side of things. With a miller A low like this someone is going to sit watching rain all day while 10 miles away probably gets pounded with snow. That line is oh so fine in situations like this. Hopefully, for all of us, the models stay in somewhat good agreement until this storm arrives instead of the usual lose it period where we jump off the cliff. I really don't feel like cliff diving this weekend so I'll just stay too drunk to read this board or models and see what we have on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some differences early on the 12z compared to the 00z......still waiting for later frames when the fun should really begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 @90 our low is starting to build just off the FL panhandle...I'm going out on a limb and saying this might look pretty close to 00z. @93 it's a little bit colder then the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 @96 snow is in the Upstate...too warm verbatim for ATL...might be light snow in WNC and CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well I take that back about it looking like the 00z @102 the low has transferred to the coast of SC leaving light snow across almost all of NC and sfc temps look border line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Another model run another solution....this is night day qpf wise from the 00z (to be expected)...this run might look enticing to RDU though as that low is going up the coast. The low totally avoids everyone in NC and slams into MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well I take that back about it looking like the 00z @102 the low has transferred to the coast of SC leaving light snow across almost all of NC and sfc temps look border line. 500mb was different. Check that out first! That won't be resolved until we're within 72 at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The coastal doesn't really get going until the NC/Va border. Very light qpf for all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 More rock solid GFS consistency. 0z GFS at Wed. 0z had the low just SW of the Big Bend of Florida. 12z GFS at Wed. 0z has the low off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 500mb was different. Check that out first! Yea I was just looking at the qpf/850 maps. Trying to avoid having too many tabs open on weather just in case someone important walks bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Miller B time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 major differences with h5 early on not a good run for nc or really anyone in the se slams the ne after passing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Miller B? Guess I'll start looking for my dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Huh? The 540 line runs from Columbus to Macon to Augusta and 850 0 deg is right on top of Atlanta. This looks more like a mix Atlanta south, all snow north...to me anyway. Sfc temps >32 = not frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Miller B time. I'm not seeing a Miller B. I'm seeing a miller A that seems to merge with another LP in the NE that is coming through the midwest, kind of like our last storm around here, you know, barely any snow and a little zr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this GFS run is much further north and east with the 5H system, so without the digging, the Southeast doesn't get a big storm. There are several s/w behind it. We have to get the 5H to dig much further west, like the NAM is doing or else this would favor miller B and a Midatlantic storm. The temps are cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks more like the gfs ensembles now. going to be interesting to see if the euro flip flops too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 S/W doesn't dig as far, probably owing to the next S/W hot on its heals. If I remember the March 93 storm right (which might be a stretch), there weren't so many waves in the flow. Hard to get things to time out just right with too many waves to negotiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 s/w hooked neutral really early and the western ridge is further east. end of s/w digging.. no SE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not seeing a Miller B. I'm seeing a miller A that seems to merge with another LP in the NE that is coming through the midwest, kind of like our last storm around here, you know, barely any snow and a little zr.. Looks to me like the low in the Plains runs into the wedge from the high/confluence in the NE and transfers to the coast. I'm not discouraged by this, though, as it will change a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Boy, northern Mid-Atlantic would get hammered with this solution. The reality is, it's much more likely than the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the whole 5H system was much futher east coming into ND instead of the Id/Mt border at 48 hours or so. Thats a huge jump east. I think its too far east considering the stong ne blocking high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12Z GFS = Kiss my arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models are flip flopping worse than politicians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to me like the low in the Plains runs into the wedge from the high/confluence in the NE and transfers to the coast. I'm not discouraged by this, though, as it will change a bunch. Yeah, I see exactly what you're saying. We still have a low coming from the gulf, but clearly the low in the plains transfers to the coast and rocks the I-95ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well from the NE thread there was new flight data ingested on the 12z runs but doesn't explain the huge difference between the NAM and the GFS at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The good news is the pattern is in place, the details will work themselves out in a few days. Might as well sit back and enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think with the low running up the coast there will be more precip with this storm ( currently shown on the 12 GFS). Even now it shows maybe 1-2 inches for central NC. I think this is a great setup with many more changes; hopefully for the good of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Got to love the jump in the gfs models since the 00z run. Plenty more runs to go. wondering which scores the coup with this system??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This model flipping is driving me crazy. Looks like NEGA (Athens) may be in for a mix of everything as of now. More than likely, we are looking at a cold rain for the main portion of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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