Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ht crashing at the trough base begins at 84. still pos tilted over AR/W TX/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 90... SLP south of FL panhandle.. trough really sharpening up, near neutral tilt. HP is offshore already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 90 its bombing in southern Alabama. Theres extrmely heavy snow in n Miss and Noth Alabama and the Zero is down into the Upstate and western NC. But the high is sliding out. Still the lower heights with this storm mean business. At 96, the zero line follows 85, snow in western Carolinas, and very heavy in GA and Al, and TEnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ht crashing at the trough base begins at 84. still pos tilted over AR/W TX/MO JWow, Do you have a moment to explain about "ht's crashing at trough base" and pos tilt? Basically what implications these two features have downstream. I THINK this implies that this will limit WAA and the HP will hold in longer? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Big storm coming !!! sub 1004mb SLP over SAV at 96 trough going neg.. SUB 996MB LOW OVER ILM AT 102 HEAVY SN WESTERN HALF OF NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 96, its 1004 near SAV, with a strong neutral or neg. trough in south GA. Very low heights over the Southeast. At 102, big snow in CLT CAE GSO and points west to ATL and GSP. 994MB low over ILM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Bombs away at 102...Still slightly inland but a little east of 12z. Looks real good for CLT west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 qpf so far is .75" AVL GSP and 1.00" ATL (Not all snow in ATL but northern GA is bombed) At 108, 988 over ORF. Complete blockbuster snowstorm in southern and eastern TENN, northern Alabama, northern GA, the western third of Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I knew that UKMet run was a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the RDU people out there this a better run for us. We look to start as rain then turn to snow as the dynamics kick in and the sfc low moves a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 96, its 1004 near SAV, with a strong neutral or neg. trough in south GA. Very low heights over the Southeast. At 102, big snow in CLT CAE GSO and points west to ATL and GSP. 994MB low over ILM area. Robert, this is the best one yet I've seen from the Euro or any model for this storm. Even the HP has snaked back in over extreme W Canada at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the RDU people out there this a better run for us. We look to start as rain then turn to snow as the dynamics kick in and the sfc low moves a little north. From the sounds of the strength of the storm, we would probably see some pretty appreciable snows after the changeover, I'd think, despite starting as rain. I wouldn't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so big snow for me in cumming ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 qpf so far is .75" AVL GSP and 1.00" ATL (Not all snow in ATL but northern GA is bombed) At 108, 988 over ORF. Complete blockbuster snowstorm in southern and eastern TENN, northern Alabama, northern GA, the western third of Carolinas. Robert, how far south of Ga. is the track? Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I keep hearing folks say that no models are showing a 50/50 low. Can someone explain to me why this is not a 50/50 low? I'm certainly no expert on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 qpf so far is .75" AVL GSP and 1.00" ATL (Not all snow in ATL but northern GA is bombed) At 108, 988 over ORF. Complete blockbuster snowstorm in southern and eastern TENN, northern Alabama, northern GA, the western third of Carolinas. This would have a very big snow gradient over the ATL metro- maybe only an inch or two at the airport. a couple- 3 at my house, but up in far northern burbs 6" not out of the question. The mountains- up to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 rough precip amts.. near 1" QPF over most of the SE. Heavier eastern areas, but it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so big snow for me in cumming ga? At least 3-5" on this run I would guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What a run...half an inch qpf by 6z wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If I take this run literally, I'd have a shot at being over 20" on the season by the end of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Right in line with UKIe, except about 50 miles inland for track. I can score big with this run, but have no more room for westward track. All in all great runs for Triad espeacilly Ukie,Nogaps and Euro. Nam doesnt go out far enough, but right in line with the 3 I mentioned and I cant remember the Canadian exact track. Then theres the GFS throwing up all over itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 From the sounds of the strength of the storm, we would probably see some pretty appreciable snows after the changeover, I'd think, despite starting as rain. I wouldn't complain. Yeah, it's hard to tell when the switch over would happen. If this would slide just 100 more miles east we would be in a lot better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 114, its over for the Carolinas. Also meant to add for RDU area at 104 there is heavy rain but just after once the low is over HAT or just west of HAT then the central piedmont is in heavy wrap around snow. Remember, this will be a deepening slow moving storm, so its probably a good snow there as well, esp. closer to GSO where its colder for longer Heres some rough QPF, but dont' take it to heart. The track is everytihgn, and this is one incredible track with the low from New Orleans to SAV to ILM region, so the numbers are likely a little low AVL .80" CLT .75" GSO 1.00" HKY .85" RDU 1.25" ILM 1.65" HAT 3.00" GSP 1.00" AHN .95" ATL 1.00" MCN 1.05" BHM 1.10" MEM .10" BNA .95" TYS .85" TRI .75" ROA .85" RIC 1.75" DCA 2.00" PHL 2.50" NYC 2.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NVM, answered in post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 114, its over for the Carolinas. Also meant to add for RDU area at 104 there is heavy rain but just after once the low is over HAT or just west of HAT then the central piedmont is in heavy wrap around snow. Remember, this will be a deepening slow moving storm, so its probably a good snow there as well, esp. closer to GSO where its colder for longer Heres some rough QPF, but dont' take it to heart. The track is everytihgn, and this is one incredible track with the low from New Orleans to SAV to ILM region, so the numbers are likely a little low AVL .80" CLT .75" GSO 1.00" HKY .85" RDU 1.25" ILM 1.65" HAT 3.00" GSP 1.00" AHN .95" ATL 1.00" MCN 1.05" BHM 1.10" MEM .10" BNA .95" TYS .85" TRI .75" ROA .85" RIC 1.75" DCA 2.00" PHL 2.50" NYC 2.65" Robet, did you happen to have the QPF numbers for CAE? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The same for ATH?? At least 3-5" on this run I would guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My new Avatar explains how I feel about the EURO for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to admit, I'm a little more interested in this storm than I was prior to the 0z runs. We will see what tomorrow holds. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Robet, did you happen to have the QPF numbers for CAE? Thanks. .74...almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Robert, let me be one of the first to say thank you for the play by play and mentioning every freaking area in the SE. No one should say anything about their BY not getting mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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