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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


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from what I've seen, you and I should be snow to start, changing to a mix, but maybe more snow just to your west, and then back to snow for all. Its impossible to draw the all snow line yet, fairly safe to say the Mtns and western foothills are probably all snow, down to extreme NW SC and NE GA, and eastern TN. As usual, we're on the line for everything, but with the arctic high in place and low dewpoints, unless the Euro suddenly changes, we should be about stated as above. Take that with a grain of salt though, at 4 days out.

Yeah, no doubt. The trend away from inland track is due to the s/w not digging as far south and going neg tilt earlier. It's not as strong or as intense with the precip, but it doesn't scour out the cold air as quickly. If it can trend more SE and turn neg that would be even better.

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With this type of strong, wrapped up system, my view is that you are going to need to be 2 topographical regions to the west of the 850mb low track to get mostly or all snow. So if the 850 low tracks through the piedmont (as was the case in this morning's Euro), you are going to need to be in the mtns and west. If it tracks up I-95, you are going to need to be in the Shelby to Hickory corridor and west.

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Storms this winter seem to be really heading for the Gulf Stream if physics will permit. My original thoughts were Mobile to just inside of Hatteras. However, I'm getting the feeling this storm has its sights set on the Gulf Stream again - if the high to the north will remain in place long enough. Points from the top of the Apps to central NC look to be in the bullseye if tonight's trends are correct. E TN appears to be a toss-up.

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Yeah, no doubt. The trend away from inland track is due to the s/w not digging as far south and going neg tilt earlier. It's not as strong or as intense with the precip, but it doesn't scour out the cold air as quickly. If it can trend more SE and turn neg that would be even better.

yeah if the Euro would trend deeper and sharper on the 5H across the Ala/Tenn area before cutting off, like it did last night I think, would be the best solution at locking in our cold, as well as heavy rates. The kicker behind it may not allow it, but we'll see. I'm not that concerned with temps yet, but if its delayed too much past 12z Tue. that would throw a wrench in it, atleast the first part of the storm, so long as we still get a strong cutoff and the coastal track, we'd still be good for comma head snow, like the Nogaps somewhat.

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With this type of strong, wrapped up system, my view is that you are going to need to be 2 topographical regions to the west of the 850mb low track to get mostly or all snow. So if the 850 low tracks through the piedmont (as was the case in this morning's Euro), you are going to need to be in the mtns and west. If it tracks up I-95, you are going to need to be in the Shelby to Hickory corridor and west.

yeah but the only thing i think i disagree with is that IF the storm is as wrapped up as the euro was this morning there will be major dynamic cooling and the foothills,western piedmont and possibly the upstate and far northeast georgia would be in some insane snowfall rates with thundersnow and all. even with 850's a little warm dynamic cooling is mighty powerful.

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Looks like its matching closely to Euro and Ukmet a good bit. Notice how the tight confluence in the northeast holds throughout. Again I'm against the grain of other mets and saying that the high will likely stay inland for the first half of the event as far as the western Carolinas and GA is concerned, and maybe for the duration, but it won't matter as much even if it slides out toward the end becuase the low heights and upper dynamics will kick in for CLT and points west I think, if the Euro and GGEM and UKIE track work out, so far, so good. We've actually seen storms a few times lately where it was wintry precip in the Carolinas but rain toward DC and Richmond. Not saying thats going to happen yet, but it could because of the setup. Timing is everything. Also, the GGEm ooks cold, which is unusual since its warm biased.

Heres the UKIE at 72 hours. Notice again a strong eastern Canada low of 956mb !! The confluence below it holds strong arctic high pressure in damming position for the first half of the storm.

post-38-0-36692200-1295672666.gif

It's my understanding that some models don't handle CAD events very well. Are these the same models that are pushing the high in NE Canada out of the way?

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yeah if the Euro would trend deeper and sharper on the 5H across the Ala/Tenn area before cutting off, like it did last night I think, would be the best solution at locking in our cold, as well as heavy rates. The kicker behind it may not allow it, but we'll see. I'm not that concerned with temps yet, but if its delayed too much past 12z Tue. that would throw a wrench in it, atleast the first part of the storm, so long as we still get a strong cutoff and the coastal track, we'd still be good for comma head snow, like the Nogaps somewhat.

Yeah the runs of earlier today were great with the cutoff 500 low down over GA. We'll see how the Euro swings... out to 18 hrs now

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yeah but the only thing i think i disagree with is that IF the storm is as wrapped up as the euro was this morning there will be major dynamic cooling and the foothills,western piedmont and possibly the upstate and far northeast georgia would be in some insane snowfall rates with thundersnow and all. even with 850's a little warm dynamic cooling is mighty powerful.

exactly. this storm is (on Euro) looking powerful with dynamics on the western flank, as most are like this. So even at +1 or +2 the dynamic cooling can overcome that, plus the cold advection is coming in at the same time the 5H is coming through, not to mention already this storm is working with lower than normal heights, so that only helps cool the column, compared to other storms. Its one of the reasons I'd like to see a track from the Fl. panhandle to the GA coast, but we in the west could handle a jog inland somewhat (not too far west though). The GGEM ptypes pounded northeast GA , nw SC (above GSP) and western NC with all snow for the storm. It has a slight warm biase.

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It's my understanding that some models don't handle CAD events very well. Are these the same models that are pushing the high in NE Canada out of the way?

no model handles cad well, but all models (except GFS ) are keeping the high in place for the first half of the storm, and its hard to say with the UKMET it probably slides it out after the first half, others have it inland near Maine/Canada. This could be one of those situations where we lock in cold from tuesday morning, then have cold aloft from the storm passing to our east later Tuesday evening.

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Big ECMWF run initializing atm, proprietary data which leads to pay per view, and maybe a more accurate depiction given the resources... Wishing the western areas the best, as this may be the first worthy chase candidate of the season and given the general track, your area is most in play. I have cleared the schedule here, as has my SN storm chasing partner, bring this sucker home I-77 and west, convective type!!! :popcorn:

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