NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And the best part of that NOGAPS run...Lookout gets about a foot of snow I tried to go for the hat trick and google the KMA, no luck. Would be hillarious if lookout got crushed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry about the GGEM being so big guys, it's one size fits all on them. ....thats what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL! I'm just not buying the GFS at all right now, Tony. I was talking to wxincanton and emersonga earlier and was telling them that if the GFS could be consistant just for TWO RUNS in a row, I would start to worry. That has not happened all week, not one time. At least the EURO is pulling a JB and sticking to it's guns until the bitter end and I'm going to ride that train as long as it will carry me. lOL! One thing I've noticed about Goofy is it often wants to join up features it sees in fantasy land. It seems good at sniffing out a general time period for a storm, but has trouble with the elements of the drama. It has been having a storm for a while around Sun/ Mon/Tues and one Fri/Sat next week, and I think it is trying to join a weeks worth of sw's together into one big and one smaller, but doesn't know how, or when, and it got brain lock At least the general weather theme is chances, and I'm sure blocking is coming back, so...fun ride. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS would do fine on the moon. All sunny hot days and cold clear nights. I don't know. On day 4 it would probably forecast a low digging deep only to push it out to the Sea of Tranquility when the the Euro & the UKMET show a major dust storm riding up the Terra Niuiu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Comparing 500 map to 12z run, does look quite a bit different, however. Not digging as deep? GGEM looks good so far at 84. Still a pos tilt trough over MO and looks to still be digging SE. This time yesterday the GGEM had it neutral at that point and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't know. On day 4 it would probably forecast a low digging deep only to push it out to the Sea of Tranquility when the the Euro & the UKMET show a major dust storm riding up the Terra Niuiu. Glad to see we've got a poster from Linkerton...we've got the entire 321 corridor covered now from here to boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Comparing 500 map to 12z run, does look quite a bit different, however. Not digging as deep? seems to be quicker than 12z... which is good regarding the HP situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WOW, huge trend eastward by the CMC! Wasn't it an Apps Runner last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think that 96 hour frame is pretty kind to those of us along or west of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WOW, huge trend eastward by the CMC! Wasn't it an Apps Runner last run? No, but it was slower and inland 200 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Check out the differences in the thickness line between 12z run at 108 and 0z at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No, but it was slower and inland 200 miles or so. Oh, that's right, that was the UKMet that was an Apps Runner. Still a huge shift for the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008 SLP over ILM at 96. The SLP is a little weaker as the mid level low isn't as wrapped up and go neg as quickly but still puts down a big snow for W NC on north. Better to go neg too late than too early or the WAA would kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Glad to see we've got a poster from Linkerton...we've got the entire 321 corridor covered now from here to boone. Actually I'm in Mooresville but I thought Lincolnton was the closest airport abv. to my house. Perhaps I should tweak my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Actually I'm in Mooresville but I thought Lincolnton was the closest airport abv. to my house. Perhaps I should tweak my location. Well then we have 2 mooresville posters...anyway, welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM looks good so far at 84. Still a pos tilt trough over MO and looks to still be digging SE. This time yesterday the GGEM had it neutral at that point and warmer Looks like its matching closely to Euro and Ukmet a good bit. Notice how the tight confluence in the northeast holds throughout. Again I'm against the grain of other mets and saying that the high will likely stay inland for the first half of the event as far as the western Carolinas and GA is concerned, and maybe for the duration, but it won't matter as much even if it slides out toward the end becuase the low heights and upper dynamics will kick in for CLT and points west I think, if the Euro and GGEM and UKIE track work out, so far, so good. We've actually seen storms a few times lately where it was wintry precip in the Carolinas but rain toward DC and Richmond. Not saying thats going to happen yet, but it could because of the setup. Timing is everything. Also, the GGEm ooks cold, which is unusual since its warm biased. Heres the UKIE at 72 hours. Notice again a strong eastern Canada low of 956mb !! The confluence below it holds strong arctic high pressure in damming position for the first half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008 SLP over ILM at 96. The SLP is a little weaker as the mid level low isn't as wrapped up or as far south but still puts down a big snow for W NC on north Not an all out blizzard here but still a really nice storm...I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One thing I've noticed about Goofy is it often wants to join up features it sees in fantasy land. It seems good at sniffing out a general time period for a storm, but has trouble with the elements of the drama. It has been having a storm for a while around Sun/ Mon/Tues and one Fri/Sat next week, and I think it is trying to join a weeks worth of sw's together into one big and one smaller, but doesn't know how, or when, and it got brain lock At least the general weather theme is chances, and I'm sure blocking is coming back, so...fun ride. T Good observation Tony. One of the BAMA guys answered my question about the qpf chart over GA on the NOGAPS. I know it's not the best or most respected model but it closer matches the rest so far.(except for the GFS of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, absolutely obliterates the Charlotte region. NoCrap verbatim is an Athens - Charlotte - Richmond clobbering, nothing short, something more... Hate to say the model has a progressive bias at any range, so it could be west of this line. Furthermore, it could be right, as it support the ens mean of both the CMC, GFS and EC, but still lots of spread amongst the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not to be blasphemous, but is it fair to say this Canadian run was actually a step toward the GFS? A little less digging, quicker transfer the coast, less robust precip. Not trying be a nattering nabob, just want to recognize the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The only places where I would feel good about this is in the NC Mtns, far N GA, N Bama, and TN. Even with a sfc low along the coast, there is going to be a ton of warm air pouring in at 850mb with this type of wrapped up system that I don't see being denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I posted this earlier today, so take notes cliff jumpers! Okay, I giving a play by play from now till the storm1.) Tonight the Euro takes our hope away for the storm!2.) Tomorrow the GFS, NAM take way our storm. GFS( took it away one run earlier) 3.) Sunday GFS starts to trend back to a storm but not so big, with the NAM to follow.4.) Early in the wee morning hours of Monday the EURO, GFS are hinting this thing is going to be a major hit.5.) Monday evening we start to get some people putting out amounts and lots are Happy and Few no so much.6.) Tuesday it starts snowing and those who are getting snow are as happy as a cheshire cat. 7.) Wed. we add up the snow totals and find the winners and losers. At the same time we are already on the look out for then next storm. 8.) WED., Thurs those who got a foot plus of snow want more and those who got nothing want more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 0z FIM apparently is coming east, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not to be blasphemous, but is it fair to say this Canadian run was actually a step toward the GFS? A little less digging, quicker transfer the coast, less robust precip. Not trying be a nattering nabob, just want to recognize the trends. You could say that. Ditto for the UKMET and possibly the NAM. That front piece of energy does separate as much from the rest of the group and dig as far SW compared to previous runs. But that doesn't mean it's a bust... yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well then we have 2 mooresville posters...anyway, welcome! Thank you. Now I will go back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You could say that. Ditto for the UKMET and possibly the NAM. That front piece of energy does separate as much from the rest of the group and dig as far SW compared to previous runs. But that doesn't mean it's a bust... yet! all the models tonight are clustered around the 5H closed off over TN valley with a sudden explosion of moisture over Ala, Ga eastern Tenn and most of the Carolinas starting around 12z Tuesday (later for eastern Carolinas), with a surface low going from northern Gulf to ILM area, with the high staying inland for the first half of the storm. Big winter storm if you ask me, from CLT to GSO and points west and southwest. All snow in western NC from about HKY west, with a mix toward the western Piedmont, thats my take on things so far...but the Euro hasn't run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 all the models tonight are clustered around the 5H closed off over TN valley with a sudden explosion of moisture over Ala, Ga eastern Tenn and most of the Carolinas starting around 12z Tuesday (later for eastern Carolinas), with a surface low going from northern Gulf to ILM area, with the high staying inland for the first half of the storm. Big winter storm if you ask me, from CLT to GSO and points west and southwest. All snow in western NC from about HKY west, with a mix toward the western Piedmont, thats my take on things so far...but the Euro hasn't run Robert, Thanks (as always) for the quick analysis. When you say mix for our areas (western Piedmont) are you thinking mix for the entire duration? Or do you still think a period of snow before, then mix and then snow? Thoughts? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Robert, Thanks (as always) for the quick analysis. When you say mix for our areas (western Piedmont) are you thinking mix for the entire duration? Or do you still think a period of snow before, then mix and then snow? Thoughts? TIA! from what I've seen, you and I should be snow to start, changing to a mix, but maybe more snow just to your west, and then back to snow for all. Its impossible to draw the all snow line yet, fairly safe to say the Mtns and western foothills are probably all snow, down to extreme NW SC and NE GA, and eastern TN. As usual, we're on the line for everything, but with the arctic high in place and low dewpoints, unless the Euro suddenly changes, we should be about stated as above. Take that with a grain of salt though, at 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is where we stand as of now with soil temps. Should be able to stay at this level,if not drop them some prior to Tuesday storm. Im betting we see quite a few clouds Sat with temps struggling to reach mid 30's for highs in Triad. Sunday and possibly early Monday should be the only solar insulation we receive. These soil temps shouldnt be any problem to those receiving snow, due to the intensity it would have no trouble accumulating if this system is as loaded with qpf as being projected. http://www.agronational.com/weather/soil-temperature-map.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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