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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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LOL! I'm just not buying the GFS at all right now, Tony. I was talking to wxincanton and emersonga earlier and was telling them that if the GFS could be consistant just for TWO RUNS in a row, I would start to worry. That has not happened all week, not one time. At least the EURO is pulling a JB and sticking to it's guns until the bitter end and I'm going to ride that train as long as it will carry me. lOL!

One thing I've noticed about Goofy is it often wants to join up features it sees in fantasy land. It seems good at sniffing out a general time period for a storm, but has trouble with the elements of the drama. It has been having a storm for a while around Sun/ Mon/Tues and one Fri/Sat next week, and I think it is trying to join a weeks worth of sw's together into one big and one smaller, but doesn't know how, or when, and it got brain lock :) At least the general weather theme is chances, and I'm sure blocking is coming back, so...fun ride. T

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The GFS would do fine on the moon. All sunny hot days and cold clear nights.

I don't know. On day 4 it would probably forecast a low digging deep only to push it out to the Sea of Tranquility when the the Euro & the UKMET show a major dust storm riding up the Terra Niuiu.

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1008 SLP over ILM at 96. The SLP is a little weaker as the mid level low isn't as wrapped up and go neg as quickly but still puts down a big snow for W NC on north. Better to go neg too late than too early or the WAA would kill us.

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GGEM looks good so far at 84. Still a pos tilt trough over MO and looks to still be digging SE. This time yesterday the GGEM had it neutral at that point and warmer

Looks like its matching closely to Euro and Ukmet a good bit. Notice how the tight confluence in the northeast holds throughout. Again I'm against the grain of other mets and saying that the high will likely stay inland for the first half of the event as far as the western Carolinas and GA is concerned, and maybe for the duration, but it won't matter as much even if it slides out toward the end becuase the low heights and upper dynamics will kick in for CLT and points west I think, if the Euro and GGEM and UKIE track work out, so far, so good. We've actually seen storms a few times lately where it was wintry precip in the Carolinas but rain toward DC and Richmond. Not saying thats going to happen yet, but it could because of the setup. Timing is everything. Also, the GGEm ooks cold, which is unusual since its warm biased.

Heres the UKIE at 72 hours. Notice again a strong eastern Canada low of 956mb !! The confluence below it holds strong arctic high pressure in damming position for the first half of the storm.

post-38-0-36692200-1295672666.gif

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One thing I've noticed about Goofy is it often wants to join up features it sees in fantasy land. It seems good at sniffing out a general time period for a storm, but has trouble with the elements of the drama. It has been having a storm for a while around Sun/ Mon/Tues and one Fri/Sat next week, and I think it is trying to join a weeks worth of sw's together into one big and one smaller, but doesn't know how, or when, and it got brain lock :) At least the general weather theme is chances, and I'm sure blocking is coming back, so...fun ride. T

Good observation Tony. One of the BAMA guys answered my question about the qpf chart over GA on the NOGAPS. I know it's not the best or most respected model but it closer matches the rest so far.(except for the GFS of course)

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Wow, absolutely obliterates the Charlotte region.

NoCrap verbatim is an Athens - Charlotte - Richmond clobbering, nothing short, something more... Hate to say the model has a progressive bias at any range, so it could be west of this line. Furthermore, it could be right, as it support the ens mean of both the CMC, GFS and EC, but still lots of spread amongst the members.

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I posted this earlier today, so take notes cliff jumpers!

  • Okay, I giving a play by play from now till the storm
    1.) Tonight the Euro takes our hope away for the storm!
    2.) Tomorrow the GFS, NAM take way our storm. GFS( took it away one run earlier)
    3.) Sunday GFS starts to trend back to a storm but not so big, with the NAM to follow.
    4.) Early in the wee morning hours of Monday the EURO, GFS are hinting this thing is going to be a major hit.
    5.) Monday evening we start to get some people putting out amounts and lots are Happy and Few no so much.
    6.) Tuesday it starts snowing and those who are getting snow are as happy as a cheshire cat.
    7.) Wed. we add up the snow totals and find the winners and losers. At the same time we are already on the look out for then next storm.
    8.) WED., Thurs those who got a foot plus of snow want more and those who got nothing want more!
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Not to be blasphemous, but is it fair to say this Canadian run was actually a step toward the GFS? A little less digging, quicker transfer the coast, less robust precip. Not trying be a nattering nabob, just want to recognize the trends.

You could say that. Ditto for the UKMET and possibly the NAM. That front piece of energy does separate as much from the rest of the group and dig as far SW compared to previous runs. But that doesn't mean it's a bust... yet!

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You could say that. Ditto for the UKMET and possibly the NAM. That front piece of energy does separate as much from the rest of the group and dig as far SW compared to previous runs. But that doesn't mean it's a bust... yet!

all the models tonight are clustered around the 5H closed off over TN valley with a sudden explosion of moisture over Ala, Ga eastern Tenn and most of the Carolinas starting around 12z Tuesday (later for eastern Carolinas), with a surface low going from northern Gulf to ILM area, with the high staying inland for the first half of the storm. Big winter storm if you ask me, from CLT to GSO and points west and southwest. All snow in western NC from about HKY west, with a mix toward the western Piedmont, thats my take on things so far...but the Euro hasn't run :gun_bandana:

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all the models tonight are clustered around the 5H closed off over TN valley with a sudden explosion of moisture over Ala, Ga eastern Tenn and most of the Carolinas starting around 12z Tuesday (later for eastern Carolinas), with a surface low going from northern Gulf to ILM area, with the high staying inland for the first half of the storm. Big winter storm if you ask me, from CLT to GSO and points west and southwest. All snow in western NC from about HKY west, with a mix toward the western Piedmont, thats my take on things so far...but the Euro hasn't run :gun_bandana:

Robert,

Thanks (as always) for the quick analysis. When you say mix for our areas (western Piedmont) are you thinking mix for the entire duration? Or do you still think a period of snow before, then mix and then snow? Thoughts? TIA!

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Robert,

Thanks (as always) for the quick analysis. When you say mix for our areas (western Piedmont) are you thinking mix for the entire duration? Or do you still think a period of snow before, then mix and then snow? Thoughts? TIA!

from what I've seen, you and I should be snow to start, changing to a mix, but maybe more snow just to your west, and then back to snow for all. Its impossible to draw the all snow line yet, fairly safe to say the Mtns and western foothills are probably all snow, down to extreme NW SC and NE GA, and eastern TN. As usual, we're on the line for everything, but with the arctic high in place and low dewpoints, unless the Euro suddenly changes, we should be about stated as above. Take that with a grain of salt though, at 4 days out.

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Here is where we stand as of now with soil temps. Should be able to stay at this level,if not drop them some prior to Tuesday storm. Im betting we see quite a few clouds Sat with temps struggling to reach mid 30's for highs in Triad. Sunday and possibly early Monday should be the only solar insulation we receive. These soil temps shouldnt be any problem to those receiving snow, due to the intensity it would have no trouble accumulating if this system is as loaded with qpf as being projected.

http://www.agronational.com/weather/soil-temperature-map.aspx

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