tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you look at hr 102, the storm is clearly there. It is just 350 miles east of the Delmarva penninsula. This is a typical gfs bias in the 96-120 hour range. I think we're back to the good ole days when the gfs would trend hundreds of miles north and west in the 48-96 hour period. we didn't see this earlier in the winter as it was in a different pattern. So, since the nam looked warm and west (a typical nam bias in years past) I think the answer will be somewhere between, but much closer to the nam/euro/canadian solutions. Time will tell. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know you should never discredit a model (especially with consistency) just because it doesn't show the solution you like but totally opposite with almost no hint of what any other model is saying? I mean come on. Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was right, but gotta go with the Euro right now. If the 00z Euro is holding it's course then the GFS is totally out to lunch. Also how the hell is the NAM so night and day with the GFS at 84 when it uses the same data to initialize? I know NAM is higher resolution but that different? The GFS is night and day compared to every other model. Even the GFS ensembles look more like the other models. Almost time for the CMC. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKie out to 72 on Plymouth -- looks to me like the 500 s/w is well down into Texas, which I believe would be a good thing -- precip breaking out east of the Miss. with the high holding in there pretty good. Not so good at reading Plymouth maps, though, so confirmation would be in order. looks like the last euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That low, if it exists, needs to stay the heck out of Ga. It is just a bunch of heavy rain that way except for the northeastern counties. I knew when the Bufkit gave me 8 inches of rain yesterday, at one point, a big storm was maybe possible. Sure, I know there must have been a glitch in the gizmo caused by the crazy Goofy, but Meteostar was giving me 1 1/2 liquid, so that was not going to be snow most likely. That much liquid in the Atl. area is nearly always going to be rain, zrain, and on occasion, sleet. Not saying a once in who knows how long storm can't happen, but when the models put the low firmly in Fla. and cut back a bit on the qpf, is when I'll get excited. Though the GFS telling Bufkit I'd get 8 inches of rain was pretty exciting, for a few moments I was drawing up plans for a boat sled down in my secret undergound lair, lol. T LOL! I'm just not buying the GFS at all right now, Tony. I was talking to wxincanton and emersonga earlier and was telling them that if the GFS could be consistant just for TWO RUNS in a row, I would start to worry. That has not happened all week, not one time. At least the EURO is pulling a JB and sticking to it's guns until the bitter end and I'm going to ride that train as long as it will carry me. lOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lets apply some objective reasoning.... based upon the last month or so here are the model rankings in accuracy at day 5 using 500mb plots 1. ECWMF 2. UKMET 3. GFS 4. CMC 5. NOGAPS When you go to Day 3... the rankings look like this 1. ECWMF 2. UKMET 3. JMA 4 .GFS 5. CMC 6. NOGAPS So yes... the gfs is really just middle of the pack, while the European models (ECWMF and UKMET) are actually leading the way. Its also why when the UKMET and ECWMF agree about a 500mb pattern... lookout! yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, I was just comparing the 0z Ukie to last night's 0z Euro -- that Euro run actually had the s/w a bit NE of the Ukie's 0z position, fwiw. looks like the last euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yep Woohoo! About to hit the JMA sweet spot! JMA loves it some cold w/ a lot of QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We put a man on the moon with a piece of equipment that had less computing power than a $600.00 laptop but we cant make a model worth a ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We put a man on the moon with a piece of equipment that had less computing power than a $600.00 laptop but we cant make a model worth a ****. The GFS would do fine on the moon. All sunny hot days and cold clear nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011012200∏=70vvτ=108&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Eric Thomas? Had to be him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Eric Thomas? it would be a hard job as a tv met and your audience remembers your last forecast of the week on a Friday night, when its the GFS model. Just seen the ukmet 5h maps and they're similar to 12Z Euro. At 96 hours the low is on GA coast, and 120 its east of NYC, so it goes up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core 1008mb LP in almost the same place as the 12z Canadian. H5 speaks for itself: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2011012200//ngp10.500.108.namer.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core Holy crap. The NOGAPS verbatim would be a dream come true for almost all of N GA. Cherokee county would get nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core Wow, absolutely obliterates the Charlotte region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core Looks like a weak inland runner at this point. Precipitation field is not very impressive - but it is the NOGAPS. Tough to tell w/ it sometimes. Edit: By that I mean, the storm track is an inland runner. There will be more precip further to the northwest if it takes that track. Fairly compact on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core Yep. In line with the rest of the "big storm" crowd. Next up is 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, absolutely obliterates the Charlotte region. Gauging from the precip maps.. looks to be at least 1.25" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Once again, the NOgaps is just beautiful for North GA,Upstate SC. and NC. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=108&set=Core its temps flirt though with GSP to CLT corridor for a while, but the track is perfect. I normally don't even look at this model anymore though, but since you brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Gauging from the precip maps.. looks to be at least 1.25" QPF Yep, best precip even comes after the temperature crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep, best precip even comes after the temperature crash. lol.. been a while since i analyzed the Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Gauging from the precip maps.. looks to be at least 1.25" QPF Wow, Is that a spiraled tongue of moisture I am seeing over N GA or is that depicting something else? I am not great at reading the NOGAPS but it looked really good. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol.. been a while since i analyzed the Nogaps I know, it's a sad day when it makes more sense than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its temps flirt though with GSP to CLT corridor for a while, but the track is perfect. I normally don't even look at this model anymore though, but since you brought it up. Looking at the latest Ukmet map you posted, it made a pretty significant shift compared to 12z. It took the surface low from running up the apps to running up the coast on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nogaps shows a huge comma shaped deformation band setting up. Big storm for northern AL/GA and points to the north east. Complete opposite of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looking at the latest Ukmet map you posted, it made a pretty significant shift compared to 12z. It took the surface low from running up the apps to running up the coast on the latest run. Yep, I don't think this is being emphasized nearly enough on here...that's a huge shift to the East for a very underated model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And the best part of that NOGAPS run...Lookout gets about a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looking at the latest Ukmet map you posted, it made a pretty significant shift compared to 12z. It took the surface low from running up the apps to running up the coast on the latest run. yes it did. Past 72 hours I can only see 24 hour increments. Its not quite as robust from what I can tell (as the ECMWF) but its close. Heres the 72 hour RH field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM looks good so far at 84. Still a pos tilt trough over MO and looks to still be digging SE. This time yesterday the GGEM had it neutral at that point and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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