griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The 50/50 low is well formed. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track. The one thing that looks positive to me about the NAM when comparing it to this morning's Euro is that on the Euro the 500mb vort max is tracking from just east of El Paso ESE to just north of Houston, whereas the NAM tracks it from E Central New Mexico SE to just north of Houston. That doesn't sound like much difference, but it suggests to me that the NAM would support slightly more digging in the trough compared to the Euro if we extrapolate that out past hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 0z actually looks even worse than 18z at 54... what a brave little weather model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we've reached a point where if the Euro sucks in 2 hours this storm is pretty much done. This isn't a "models losing the storm". This is "no storm for the models to lose". eh? there's a storm there. All the models except the GFS are agreeing on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we've reached a point where if the Euro sucks in 2 hours this storm is pretty much done. This isn't a "models losing the storm". This is "no storm for the models to lose". ....say what now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z GFS out to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we've reached a point where if the Euro sucks in 2 hours this storm is pretty much done. This isn't a "models losing the storm". This is "no storm for the models to lose". Do you work for FFC? Good grief. The GFS is the obvious outlier. It's #4 at this range and it's sucking azz in this pattern so far. Let's see if it can score a coup if it's such a great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ....say what now? i withdraw. you guys have fun. rest of the board is in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z GFS out to 84 yeah h5 looks terrible to me worse than 18z just too far east for anything meaningful for any of the southeast really. its the gfs versus the world basically we know how that "usually" works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9664-posting-etiquette/ Please read rules 3, 5 and 7, which you managed to violate in one post. You might want to read the others too -- based on your recent posts, you will be violating them soon. i withdraw. you guys have fun. rest of the board is in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can the GFS be this bad or is it every other model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z GFS out to 84 I agree burger...The gfs looks nothing like the other models. So where are we now? The gfs vs every other model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow. GFS lost the storm completely. Didn't expect that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it looks too me at h5 the s/w that comes ashore in western canada pushed our s/w further east than the rest of the model it seems with the polar vortex over the ne and eastern canada wouldnt allow this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This para GFS upgrade from last year is verifying worse day 3 on IMO than the one we had before whatever tinkering took place, It could be right, but I doubt it just off how its performed in day 3-5 range this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can the GFS be this bad or is it every other model... The pattern of the GFS before the weather pattern changed was for it to start chasing the EURO solution a couple of days before the event while the EURO would start mucking up. The GFS may be just that bad in this new pattern or otherwise, it's the best it has ever been since I have been following "modelology". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah h5 looks terrible to me worse than 18z just too far east for anything meaningful for any of the southeast really. its the gfs versus the world basically we know how that "usually" works out. Let us not forget that just 24 hours ago the GFS went gonzo for a Wednesday storm, (at least IMBY) and now its up to nothing. The model has been all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it has a storm next week, Just a clipper! :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let us not forget that just 24 hours ago the GFS went gonzo for a Wednesday storm, (at least IMBY) and now its up to nothing. The model has been all over the map. Our tax money hard at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How does a model (GFS) go from a BOMB to nothing in 24 hours ? Now I could understand if other models showed nothing much, But they are nothing like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well maybe i just keep my expectations low or something, i am on twister and its out to 84...while its not looking like a big deal, it is showing at least a little snow in n ms, n al and n ga by hours 78 and 84 (granted it is a very small amount lol). at this point i am looking to keep adding to the snowfall the last two years. i never take any run that shows 6"+ imby seriously (unless its like the RUC in the middle of the storm lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How does a model (GFS) go from a BOMB to nothing in 24 hours ? Now I could understand if other models showed nothing much, But they are nothing like GFS 18 hours. It had a bomb at 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How does a model (GFS) go from a BOMB to nothing in 24 hours ? Now I could understand if other models showed nothing much, But they are nothing like GFS right now this outcome is an outlier but with so much spread of ensembles and such a volatile pattern anything is possible so i would give this solution some credence but so far there is nothing that leads me too believe this will be a non-event in fact at 18z the gfs ensemble's didnt really agree with any one outcome so it is a little disconcerting that the gfs is so blah right now but the euro has outscored the gfs at h5 in this range so im comfortable until the euro jumps ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The pattern of the GFS before the weather pattern changed was for it to start chasing the EURO solution a couple of days before the event while the EURO would start mucking up. The GFS may be just that bad in this new pattern or otherwise, it's the best it has ever been since I have been following "modelology". That low, if it exists, needs to stay the heck out of Ga. It is just a bunch of heavy rain that way except for the northeastern counties. I knew when the Bufkit gave me 8 inches of rain yesterday, at one point, a big storm was maybe possible. Sure, I know there must have been a glitch in the gizmo caused by the crazy Goofy, but Meteostar was giving me 1 1/2 liquid, so that was not going to be snow most likely. That much liquid in the Atl. area is nearly always going to be rain, zrain, and on occasion, sleet. Not saying a once in who knows how long storm can't happen, but when the models put the low firmly in Fla. and cut back a bit on the qpf, is when I'll get excited. Though the GFS telling Bufkit I'd get 8 inches of rain was pretty exciting, for a few moments I was drawing up plans for a boat sled down in my secret undergound lair, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18 hours. It had a bomb at 6z too. We need to BOMB that model. That's what it needs, Big waste of money !!! Now watch the stupid thing be right What bothers me though, It's right just enough to be dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ugh, now that its farther out i see what the complaint is. there appears to be no qpf (well less than a .10" which might as well be nothing ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKie out to 72 on Plymouth -- looks to me like the 500 s/w is well down into Texas, which I believe would be a good thing -- precip breaking out east of the Miss. with the high holding in there pretty good. Not so good at reading Plymouth maps, though, so confirmation would be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 right now this outcome is an outlier but with so much spread of ensembles and such a volatile patter anything so i would give this solution some credence but so far there is nothing that leads me too believe this will be a non-event in fact at 18z the gfs ensemble's didnt really agree with any one outcome so it is a little disconcerting that the gfs is so blah right now but the euro has outscored the gfs at h5 in this range so im comfortable until the euro jumps ship Well said Casey. +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree burger...The gfs looks nothing like the other models. So where are we now? The gfs vs every other model? I know you should never discredit a model (especially with consistency) just because it doesn't show the solution you like but totally opposite with almost no hint of what any other model is saying? I mean come on. Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was right, but gotta go with the Euro right now. If the 00z Euro is holding it's course then the GFS is totally out to lunch. Also how the hell is the NAM so night and day with the GFS at 84 when it uses the same data to initialize? I know NAM is higher resolution but that different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just saw one of CLT stations and he's going with the GFS for our area next week. He said the new data just in helps him lean that way. I'm waiting on the Euro and more runs this weekend. Its a tricky setup with a lot of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just saw one of CLT stations and he's going with the GFS for our area next week. He said the new data just in helps him lean that way. I'm waiting on the Euro and more runs this weekend. Its a tricky setup with a lot of options. Eric Thomas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.