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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The 50/50 low is well formed. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

The one thing that looks positive to me about the NAM when comparing it to this morning's Euro is that on the Euro the 500mb vort max is tracking from just east of El Paso ESE to just north of Houston, whereas the NAM tracks it from E Central New Mexico SE to just north of Houston. That doesn't sound like much difference, but it suggests to me that the NAM would support slightly more digging in the trough compared to the Euro if we extrapolate that out past hr 84.

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I think we've reached a point where if the Euro sucks in 2 hours this storm is pretty much done. This isn't a "models losing the storm". This is "no storm for the models to lose".

eh? there's a storm there. All the models except the GFS are agreeing on that.

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I think we've reached a point where if the Euro sucks in 2 hours this storm is pretty much done. This isn't a "models losing the storm". This is "no storm for the models to lose".

Do you work for FFC? Good grief. The GFS is the obvious outlier. It's #4 at this range and it's sucking azz in this pattern so far. Let's see if it can score a coup if it's such a great model.

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Can the GFS be this bad or is it every other model...

The pattern of the GFS before the weather pattern changed was for it to start chasing the EURO solution a couple of days before the event while the EURO would start mucking up. The GFS may be just that bad in this new pattern or otherwise, it's the best it has ever been since I have been following "modelology".

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yeah h5 looks terrible to me worse than 18z just too far east for anything meaningful for any of the southeast really.:facepalm:

its the gfs versus the world basically we know how that "usually" works out.

Let us not forget that just 24 hours ago the GFS went gonzo for a Wednesday storm, (at least IMBY) and now its up to nothing. The model has been all over the map.

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well maybe i just keep my expectations low or something, i am on twister and its out to 84...while its not looking like a big deal, it is showing at least a little snow in n ms, n al and n ga by hours 78 and 84 (granted it is a very small amount lol). at this point i am looking to keep adding to the snowfall the last two years. i never take any run that shows 6"+ imby seriously (unless its like the RUC in the middle of the storm lol)

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How does a model (GFS) go from a BOMB to nothing in 24 hours ? Now I could understand if other models showed nothing much, But they are nothing like GFS :arrowhead:

right now this outcome is an outlier but with so much spread of ensembles and such a volatile pattern anything is possible so i would give this solution some credence but so far there is nothing that leads me too believe this will be a non-event in fact at 18z the gfs ensemble's didnt really agree with any one outcome so it is a little disconcerting that the gfs is so blah right now but the euro has outscored the gfs at h5 in this range so im comfortable until the euro jumps ship

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The pattern of the GFS before the weather pattern changed was for it to start chasing the EURO solution a couple of days before the event while the EURO would start mucking up. The GFS may be just that bad in this new pattern or otherwise, it's the best it has ever been since I have been following "modelology".

That low, if it exists, needs to stay the heck out of Ga. It is just a bunch of heavy rain that way except for the northeastern counties. I knew when the Bufkit gave me 8 inches of rain yesterday, at one point, a big storm was maybe possible. Sure, I know there must have been a glitch in the gizmo caused by the crazy Goofy, but Meteostar was giving me 1 1/2 liquid, so that was not going to be snow most likely. That much liquid in the Atl. area is nearly always going to be rain, zrain, and on occasion, sleet. Not saying a once in who knows how long storm can't happen, but when the models put the low firmly in Fla. and cut back a bit on the qpf, is when I'll get excited. Though the GFS telling Bufkit I'd get 8 inches of rain was pretty exciting, for a few moments :) I was drawing up plans for a boat sled down in my secret undergound lair, lol. T

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UKie out to 72 on Plymouth -- looks to me like the 500 s/w is well down into Texas, which I believe would be a good thing -- precip breaking out east of the Miss. with the high holding in there pretty good. Not so good at reading Plymouth maps, though, so confirmation would be in order.

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right now this outcome is an outlier but with so much spread of ensembles and such a volatile patter anything so i would give this solution some credence but so far there is nothing that leads me too believe this will be a non-event in fact at 18z the gfs ensemble's didnt really agree with any one outcome so it is a little disconcerting that the gfs is so blah right now but the euro has outscored the gfs at h5 in this range so im comfortable until the euro jumps ship

Well said Casey. +1.

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I agree burger...The gfs looks nothing like the other models. So where are we now? The gfs vs every other model?

I know you should never discredit a model (especially with consistency) just because it doesn't show the solution you like but totally opposite with almost no hint of what any other model is saying? I mean come on. Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was right, but gotta go with the Euro right now. If the 00z Euro is holding it's course then the GFS is totally out to lunch. Also how the hell is the NAM so night and day with the GFS at 84 when it uses the same data to initialize? I know NAM is higher resolution but that different?

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