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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

You may be right, maybe it's just faster than 12z Euro, that's what I was comparing it to.

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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

With that trough wouldn't it turn neutral and then kick the lp up and in....I mean with where it's at around 84 you would think the lp would have no choice but to track either right along or just inside the coast line...or am I wrong?

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You have to keep in mind the 500 pattern is not the same as in other storms. Whereas before we had more of a west based NAO, we are now looking at an east based NAO which argues for the high sliding out to see. I honestly don't see what anyone is seeing that will stop that on any model?

I totally agree with this. The upper patern isn't the same as previous storms, so I lend very little weight to seasonal trends. If this thing forms too late and does indeed bomb out, I would be willing to bet it would run more inland than currently shown.

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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The 50/50 low is well formed. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong Wow. This is one case I would love to be wrong!

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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

That would sound fine to me. After looking at the Euro on accupro, It brings the 850 low right over the far NW corner of SC then rides I-85. Almost too close for comfort.

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I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The 50/50 low is well formed. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track.

Im seeing what you are. Its better to compare a model to its own previous runs at this range to see trends. This is a nice little bump futher east with the trough compared to 18z. The trough is sharper, but still positive and you still have some minor seperation in the streams

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Without the west based -NAO, or a 50/50 low the high will be transitory. In this setup it will almost certainly slide off the coast by Tuesday night/Wednesday. There could be an in-situ wedge left, but that usually will erode quickly except in areas of the NC foothills/western piedmont and even there it erodes eventually.

In this setup it looks like we will not see any significant precipitation till later Tuesday and thus the high will be moving out as the storm gets going near the gulf coast. Therefore we will likely see a more rain/snow scenario based on teh storm track which right now seems to be far enough inland to keep most areas east of the mountains mostly rain. of course that could change and with the amount of s/w energy around the models have been having a hard time latching on to consistency.

The 00z NAM looks alot more like the EURO at 12z Tuesday than the GFS. I expect the GFS to trend towards the Euro/GGEm/NAM. For this to be a snow setup in say the Triangle, I would think we need to storm system to eveolve a little quicker which would mean the storm track would likely be further east since the wedge would still be locked in or at least just starting to weaken. If the storm system evolves slower the high move out and there will be really nothing stopping a coastal plain or piedmont track, unless the s/w digs more and wait to go negatively tilted till a later time. All things still possible but the overall synoptic setup is not as favorable for storms as it was a few weeks ago. It isnt impossible but it is all about timing and without the west-based NAO around you timing window is a lot narrower than it would be with the west-based NAO.

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Not all -NAOs are created equal. There are no indications of a 50/50 low on any model. You can clearly see here that this is an east-based NAO, meaning the 500 height anomalies are located further east, which means the surface high will have no hindrance in sliding offshore.

West NAO: http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html

East NAO: http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html

Trust me, I know the difference b/n the two. The level of blocking we've had all year has almost been too extreme to allow for a true Miller A to track up the coast. Why do u think DC has 3 inches of snow thus far?

We're now flirting with the atlantic flow being too relaxed. However, the cutoff over Maine day 3 could easily trend eastward if it phases with this wave off the carolina coast. It wouldn't take a huge adjustment in the atlantic to favor a further east solution with the SLP. At this point I actually agree with DT that it's likely we're dealing with an inland track, but I'm not going to pretend there isn't anything that could throw that off. BTW both phases are clearly negative on Allan's bar graph. It's not like this is such a clear cut case of an east based block.

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Looking at the 21z SREF members reveals that there is still a wide range of potential outcomes still on the table. I think it's safe to say at this point nobody really has a handle on just how this event will transpire.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21500US_21z/srefloop.html

I won't be surprised if we see a drastic shift it guidance over the weekend. Whether that be a weak OTS solution or an apps running mega-bomb is anybody's guess.

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Without the west based -NAO, or a 50/50 low the high will be transitory. In this setup it will almost certainly slide off the coast by Tuesday night/Wednesday. There could be an in-situ wedge left, but that usually will erode quickly except in areas of the NC foothills/western piedmont and even there it erodes eventually.

In this setup it looks like we will not see any significant precipitation till later Tuesday and thus the high will be moving out as the storm gets going near the gulf coast. Therefore we will likely see a more rain/snow scenario based on teh storm track which right now seems to be far enough inland to keep most areas east of the mountains mostly rain. of course that could change and with the amount of s/w energy around the models have been having a hard time latching on to consistency.

The 00z NAM looks alot more like the EURO at 12z Tuesday than the GFS. I expect the GFS to trend towards the Euro/GGEm/NAM. For this to be a snow setup in say the Triangle, I would think we need to storm system to eveolve a little quicker which would mean the storm track would likely be further east since the wedge would still be locked in or at least just starting to weaken. If the storm system evolves slower the high move out and there will be really nothing stopping a coastal plain or piedmont track, unless the s/w digs more and wait to go negatively tilted till a later time. All things still possible but the overall synoptic setup is not as favorable for storms as it was a few weeks ago. It isnt impossible but it is all about timing and without the west-based NAO around you timing window is a lot narrower than it would be with the west-based NAO.

Everyone located in central/east NC focused on 4 words in this post "All things still possible" :whistle:

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Show me one model solution where there is sufficient blocking as to prevent the high from sliding offshore and I might buy into that. You pretty much just supported my argument by saying it's not such a clear cut case one way or the other, if there is nothing clearly evident to block the high, then what is going to block the high? I think at this time range it's being pretty optimistic to think a shift at 500 is going to occur that would prevent this high from sliding offshore. BTW I think anyone with sight would agree the signal is much stronger for an east-base NAO than a west one both by looking at the 500 maps or Allan's charts.

First off I don't think the high is going to stay in place. I said it could trend slower if we see some favorable trends with the 500mb low over maine. You're trying to pigeon hole me into saying there is going to be this beautiful classical CAD setup. Obviously that's not going to be the case.The most important player in this setup is SLP track. The NAO is clearly sufficiently negative to support a track that isn't over the Piedmont. I could pull out about 10 setups where the NAO is not a whole lot different from this, which resulted in a SLP track further east than the EURO.

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I'm actually not arguing at all about the SLP track, and as long as you agree with me about the high we are on the same page. I think another issue is that what may be ok for Hickory, isn't so "hot" for Raleigh - pardon the pun! I don't dispute that the SLP could very well end up taking a coastal track, in fact I could see it tracking along the wedge front which will probably be further east than the current op euro track...but that likely won't be enough for the RDU area to get in on a major winter storm without a steady feed of cold air to combat the strong WAA that will certainly be delivered from the system.

You RDU folks are really touchy lately.

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You RDU folks are really touchy lately.

I think they have a right to be after the last storm. As compared to last year here I have nearly doubled the entire season total I had in 2009-2010. This has been a great year for Southern Pines. In this case I am inclined to agree with bnmdjm's thinking on this one. Unfortunately for central NC folks this one is likely to be a fail for those wanting snow.

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