BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather.. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather.. I agree he is very knowledgable. So we will see if he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know this much, as of 8:56PM on Friday evening, either DT or Raleigh NWS is wrong with regards to their thinking on the snow line in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else about DT being very talented but for my area I would rather read what Robert and Allen have to say. With both of them living in NC, they know the ideal situations that bring good snows to our area and what to look for in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else about DT being very talented but for my area I would rather read what Robert and Allen have to say. With both of them living in NC, they know the ideal situations that bring good snows to our area and what to look for in the pattern. Robert has been dead on all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather.. He is a great reader and interpreter of the models. I'd like to see him take a stand a little ealier some times. He's pretty much laying it out there this time though. Seems he beleives 85 from NC to Richmond is pretty much rain with snow from northern mountains of NC up 81. He agrees with the models pulling the storm further west this time as the pattern is totally different. A very good (but depressing) read. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else about DT being very talented but for my area I would rather read what Robert and Allen have to say. With both of them living in NC, they know the ideal situations that bring good snows to our area and what to look for in the pattern. I agree 100% with this also. What I agree with about DT is his knowledge!!! But as you said Robert and Alan, Brandon know our area well.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else about DT being very talented but for my area I would rather read what Robert and Allen have to say. With both of them living in NC, they know the ideal situations that bring good snows to our area and what to look for in the pattern. Agreed, along with Foothills comments earlier. It was a good read but seemed to cut and dry for such a complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% with this also. What I agree with about DT is his knowledge!!! But as you said Robert and Alan, Brandon know our area well.......... I suppose there is some knowledge there if you can pull it out of the sentence fragments and typographical errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Back on topic folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Back on topic folks. Sorry Wow! The 0z nam holds course so far and is dropping the energy down in west MT....This is a lot further west than the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry Wow! The 0z nam holds course so far and is dropping the energy down in west MT....This is a lot further west than the 18z gfs. What does that mean for the phase? Earlier/later? At hr 60 on the 0z NAM the southern energy looks darn close to the 12z Euro at 72 but the northern energy on the NAM is west of the Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry Wow! The 0z nam holds course so far and is dropping the energy down in west MT....This is a lot further west than the 18z gfs. It is, though a touch east of the prev NAM run... could be a little slower instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just saw that Alan has added snowfall maps to go with the GFS ensemble members. As if I didn't spend enough time looking at maps already! PRETTY COLORS!!... Go to bottom of page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I enjoyed reading DT's thoughts. He makes a lot of sense. I'm going to post on my blog later tonight after the gfs comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 So far 0z NAM on course with the Euro and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I enjoyed reading DT's thoughts. He makes a lot of sense. I'm going to post on my blog later tonight after the gfs comes out. Looking forward to it Brandon, Just let us know when you're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One thing that could put a wrench into the inland low is the NAO. Notice how it's forecasted to peak into negative territory right around the same time our storm occurs. Generally, a -NAO will promote a 50/50 low, which in turn promotes a locked in HP. So we could see the high pressure DT was speaking about, which he say's is going to be too far east, trend slower in moving out on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it's definitely not OTS, it's going to be inland, could be way inland, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LP developing @ 84HR on the NAM near LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The trend this winter has been for the models to slide the high out too quickly, not buying that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it's definitely not OTS, it's going to be inland, could be way inland, IMO. Yeah its about to go neutral in the next frame and go negative in about another 6 to 9 hours. The nam extended would be an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it's definitely not OTS, it's going to be inland, could be way inland, IMO. I agree w/ this...It's got a slight positive tilt at 84 hrs but close to neutral. If it goes negative tilt to early it will be an inland track imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The trend this winter has been for the models to slide the high out too quickly, not buying that yet. When that low makes it to the coast and "Bombs" you won't need a high anymore. The low itself would pull down plenty of cold air on the NW side. The stronger the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah its about to go neutral in the next frame and go negative in about another 6 to 9 hours. The nam extended would be an inland runner. Not just inland, but an Apps runner, it's almost neutral and it's at the LA/Tx border. Euro was still positive at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 compared to NAM 18 z, its futher east and still positive tilted, but not as much , Looks sharper.500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You have to keep in mind the 500 pattern is not the same as in other storms. Whereas before we had more of a west based NAO, we are now looking at an east based NAO which argues for the high sliding out to see. I honestly don't see what anyone is seeing that will stop that on any model? Yea from what I understood the high wasn't a big deal except to maybe help with the start of the storm, but that low was going to help really end the storm with some rates....of points west of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah its about to go neutral in the next frame and go negative in about another 6 to 9 hours. The nam extended would be an inland runner. I may have to disagree. HP is well settled over NE and even extended back into SE Canada. The 50/50 low is well formed. The trough position is also further east than the Euro. I think this may be a coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree w/ this...It's got a slight positive tilt at 84 hrs but close to neutral. If it goes negative tilt to early it will be an inland track imo. I don't see any chance this slides OTS, at this point it looks like either an Apps runner or inland runner like the Euro, the UK is an Apps runner. TN will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not just inland, but an Apps runner, it's almost neutral and it's at the LA/Tx border. Euro was still positive at that location. IMO it can slide east a little even after going negative but the sooner it bombs out the sooner it will start heading N or NE. With the position shown on the 84 hr nam I don't think it would go far enough east to save our area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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