phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is it a valid option or should it be ignored? Or are we looking at some kind of hybrid between the euro and GFS? Basically, it has a reason for why its not amplifying the system like crazy, since the kicker shortwave forces it to be more progressive. However, it doesn't seem to have very much model support at this time. If it does it again at 00z and then the GGEM and EURO jump on board... well then we can start giving it more credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS may no have much support at this time, but all season long we've had S/W after S/W after S/W in the flow, so while not supported today, I don't think the solution is unreasonable. And of course, we've seen the superstorm scenario already with the Christmas storm. We're still several days away and we don't know what energy has been sampled we'll and what has not. There are tons of reasonable solutions still on the table, even the GFS's, which is demonstrated by the ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 whats odd as it seemed like we had more agreement with the 0z and 6z gfs with the other global models. Hopefully its not leading but catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not worried at all about the GFS... could it be correct on the "kicker" s/w? Sure. However the Euro has been untouchable at this range and I see no reason to go against it now. It's all about trends and the trends over the past 24 hrs have been good (excluding the GFS). So let's see if we can keep the streak going through the weekend and get one hell of a snowstorm on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not worried at all about the GFS... could it be correct on the "kicker" s/w? Sure. However the Euro has been untouchable at this range and I see no reason to go against it now. It's all about trends and the trends over the past 24 hrs have been good (excluding the GFS). So let's see if we can keep the streak going through the weekend and get one hell of a snowstorm on Tuesday Not only the last 24 hours but apparently for about a month or so now! If you're a betting man, you don't go against the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not only the last 24 hours but apparently for about a month or so now! If you're a betting man, you don't go against the odds. Well the Euro has been king in my eyes for years now..... for once the Euro is finally on our side this winter so let's cash in all we can before it goes back it it's old Dr. No self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Excellent. I need to bookmark his site. Follow him on twitter as fell, always makes an effort to reply to any questions. @wxbrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think phil is exactly right with the GFS and can see how it could be correct. With the progression of s/w we have seen so far this winter, it would be a reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I bet FFC almost feels vindicated after the 18z run of the GFS, going around slapping high fives and singing the praises and virtues of its' most beloved model. Anywho....the GFS has been crap at this range as of late but what scares me is this is a different regime than what we were dealing with just two short weeks ago with the PNA ridge, neutral to positive NAO and positive AO. Aside from that, however, the EURO also seems to lose the storm about 2 to 3 days out and about that time, the GFS will gravitate toward the old EURO solution until we are scanning through runs of the WRF. Wash, rinse and repeat since about the 3rd week of December with this! One note of interest, BMX and HSV do not seem that bullish either at this point and time. The grids along those borders of those FA's match up very well and look coordinated. We MAY miss out on this thing altogether but it would be foolhardy to dismiss what the EURO is showing at this range as well. I remain a bit more than optimistic. Thanks for the model analysis guys in this convoluted pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 In the Huntsville AFD the other day they gave FFC kudos for coordination... I guess it was a shock to them! I've always thought the guys in BMX were pretty good, I hope FFc doesn't rub off on them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FIM model rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FIM model rocks LOL... Looks kinda like the Euro, Ukie and CMC. On another note the alot of the GFS ensembles look very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm as they say, "Holding my fire, until I see the whites of its eyes," in regards to next week's storm. JMA and GFS got off at the last stop on the blizzard train. The Euro and Canadian shoved them out of the way as they were getting on. The GFS gives me serious pause. The Canadian basically missed on Thursday's storm in E TN. Though, to be fair, it was on it's own for most of the model runs. So, it was fairly obvious what was happening. But the Canadian has been overamplifying storms in the TN Valley its seems all winter. The Euro almost seems too extreme which makes me wonder if it is in error. If this slp turns left, I have always felt this was an inland runner. That said, as others have opined, the GFS is a legitimate solution. Time will tell. But if the Euro were to verify in some form...Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW, 18z NOGAPS looks to be in line with Euro/GGEM/UKMET/NAM with regards to a big storm for the SE as well as our friends further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z DGEX is more of a coastal hugger and warm. Seems like it phases late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Birmingham NWS going with Euro. Good discussion. NOW TO THE BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD...A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE POISED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY...WHEN THE MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ALABAMA BY 12Z ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH FROM WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO THE GFS...AS IT DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS EL PASO TEXAS...WITH 500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -30C ACROSS OKLAHOMA. WITH THE TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER...IT TRIGGERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AT 6Z...MOVING NORTHEAST TO MOBILE BAY BY 18Z ON TUESDAY...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE LOW DEEPENS TO 1002MB IN GEORGIA ON ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF THIS WINTER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WITH A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION...AND 5 MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALREADY COMING IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...I HAVE DECIDED TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND AM CURRENTLY GOING MORE WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO COMPLETELY DISAGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...AND HAVE NOT PLACED ALL MY CONFIDENCE IN THE EURO JUST YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z DGEX is more of a coastal hugger and warm. Seems like it phases late. Yeah, coastal hugger. If that blasted low wasn't over the lakes we would have a 1035 high right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z DGEX is more of a coastal hugger and warm. Seems like it phases late. The overall 500mb map and even the SLP track looks pretty favorable, IMO. There are a lot of extraneous vorts which explains the zillions of SLP's popping up and most likely delays a cohesive 850 low to form until late, thus, a warmer solution. If that's the kind of ULL we see then it'll be making its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Look at your own risk. I like how the "Big Daddy" area encompasses DC, PHL, NYC, and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 long read... DT lastest thoughts Quote -->"Consider the last two runs of the Canadian and the European model. Those models have shifted west…. NOT east. And more importantly the Canadian and European ensemble mean maps have also shifted WAAAAAY to the West. That may be the first time we have seen that in the model trends since December 1." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 long read... DT lastest thoughts That link no worky for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My bad. should work now.. That link no worky for me. http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/01/jan-25-26-27-inland-heavy-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ANYBODY GOT A BLUE HIGHLIGHTER!!! Look at your own risk. I like how the "Big Daddy" area encompasses DC, PHL, NYC, and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My bad. should work now.. I still can't get it to work...opened it in new tab and new browser too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I still can't get it to work...opened it in new tab and new browser too. Worked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Worked for me. Got it now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z euro ensemble , I like this track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am not a big fan of DT.... occasionally he has good stuff to say but he tends to be too emotional at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather.. I am not a big fan of DT.... occasionally he has good stuff to say but he tends to be too emotional at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather.. 100% agree with this statement...very smart meteorologist. He doesn't hype things up though like people say, I think he tells it like it is. Sure, he can sound excited, but it isn't hype. He mentions NC a lot, and that's respectable as a lot of NE mets never do...even if we get snow. From reading his update I can tell he would not bet a single dollar on the storm shifting east, so in his mind, central NC is out of the picture no matter what the models show from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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