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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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Is it a valid option or should it be ignored? Or are we looking at some kind of hybrid between the euro and GFS?

Basically, it has a reason for why its not amplifying the system like crazy, since the kicker shortwave forces it to be more progressive. However, it doesn't seem to have very much model support at this time. If it does it again at 00z and then the GGEM and EURO jump on board... well then we can start giving it more credit.

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The GFS may no have much support at this time, but all season long we've had S/W after S/W after S/W in the flow, so while not supported today, I don't think the solution is unreasonable. And of course, we've seen the superstorm scenario already with the Christmas storm. We're still several days away and we don't know what energy has been sampled we'll and what has not. There are tons of reasonable solutions still on the table, even the GFS's, which is demonstrated by the ensemble spread.

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I'm not worried at all about the GFS... could it be correct on the "kicker" s/w? Sure. However the Euro has been untouchable at this range and I see no reason to go against it now. It's all about trends and the trends over the past 24 hrs have been good (excluding the GFS). So let's see if we can keep the streak going through the weekend and get one hell of a snowstorm on Tuesday

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I'm not worried at all about the GFS... could it be correct on the "kicker" s/w? Sure. However the Euro has been untouchable at this range and I see no reason to go against it now. It's all about trends and the trends over the past 24 hrs have been good (excluding the GFS). So let's see if we can keep the streak going through the weekend and get one hell of a snowstorm on Tuesday

Not only the last 24 hours but apparently for about a month or so now! If you're a betting man, you don't go against the odds.

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Not only the last 24 hours but apparently for about a month or so now! If you're a betting man, you don't go against the odds.

Well the Euro has been king in my eyes for years now..... for once the Euro is finally on our side this winter so let's cash in all we can before it goes back it it's old Dr. No self.

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I bet FFC almost feels vindicated after the 18z run of the GFS, going around slapping high fives and singing the praises and virtues of its' most beloved model. :rolleyes:

Anywho....the GFS has been crap at this range as of late but what scares me is this is a different regime than what we were dealing with just two short weeks ago with the PNA ridge, neutral to positive NAO and positive AO. Aside from that, however, the EURO also seems to lose the storm about 2 to 3 days out and about that time, the GFS will gravitate toward the old EURO solution until we are scanning through runs of the WRF. Wash, rinse and repeat since about the 3rd week of December with this!

One note of interest, BMX and HSV do not seem that bullish either at this point and time. The grids along those borders of those FA's match up very well and look coordinated. We MAY miss out on this thing altogether but it would be foolhardy to dismiss what the EURO is showing at this range as well. I remain a bit more than optimistic. Thanks for the model analysis guys in this convoluted pattern.

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I'm as they say, "Holding my fire, until I see the whites of its eyes," in regards to next week's storm. JMA and GFS got off at the last stop on the blizzard train. The Euro and Canadian shoved them out of the way as they were getting on. The GFS gives me serious pause. The Canadian basically missed on Thursday's storm in E TN. Though, to be fair, it was on it's own for most of the model runs. So, it was fairly obvious what was happening. But the Canadian has been overamplifying storms in the TN Valley its seems all winter. The Euro almost seems too extreme which makes me wonder if it is in error. If this slp turns left, I have always felt this was an inland runner. That said, as others have opined, the GFS is a legitimate solution. Time will tell.

But if the Euro were to verify in some form...Man.

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Birmingham NWS going with Euro. Good discussion.

NOW TO THE BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD...A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM

SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE POISED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND

TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 12Z

MONDAY...WHEN THE MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE GFS

IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE

EASTERN SEABOARD...AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY

WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ALABAMA BY 12Z

ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH FROM

WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO THE

GFS...AS IT DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS EL PASO

TEXAS...WITH 500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -30C ACROSS OKLAHOMA. WITH THE

TROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER...IT TRIGGERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON

TUESDAY AT 6Z...MOVING NORTHEAST TO MOBILE BAY BY 18Z ON

TUESDAY...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE LOW DEEPENS TO 1002MB IN

GEORGIA ON ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF THIS WINTER...THE

CANADIAN MODEL WITH A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION...AND 5 MEMBERS OF THE

GFS ENSEMBLE ALREADY COMING IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...I HAVE DECIDED

TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND AM CURRENTLY GOING

MORE WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO

COMPLETELY DISAGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...AND HAVE NOT PLACED ALL

MY CONFIDENCE IN THE EURO JUST YET.

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18z DGEX is more of a coastal hugger and warm. Seems like it phases late.

The overall 500mb map and even the SLP track looks pretty favorable, IMO. There are a lot of extraneous vorts which explains the zillions of SLP's popping up and most likely delays a cohesive 850 low to form until late, thus, a warmer solution. If that's the kind of ULL we see then it'll be making its own cold air.

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long read...

DT lastest thoughts

Quote -->"Consider the last two runs of the Canadian and the European model. Those models have shifted west…. NOT east. And more importantly the Canadian and European ensemble mean maps have also shifted WAAAAAY to the West. That may be the first time we have seen that in the model trends since December 1."

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I agree 100% about his emotions. But he knows his stuff, when it comes to weather..

100% agree with this statement...very smart meteorologist. He doesn't hype things up though like people say, I think he tells it like it is. Sure, he can sound excited, but it isn't hype. He mentions NC a lot, and that's respectable as a lot of NE mets never do...even if we get snow.

From reading his update I can tell he would not bet a single dollar on the storm shifting east, so in his mind, central NC is out of the picture no matter what the models show from here on out.:lightning:

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