CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm a little worried about the NWS RAH staff over there. Must be the flu meds. It's going around this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, the guys at MRX don't seem impressed for East Tennessee at this point....maybe they're just waiting.... LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE FEATURE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURES...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. MEX GUIDANCE ON THE HIGHER SIDE...STAYED NEAR HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lets apply some objective reasoning.... based upon the last month or so here are the model rankings in accuracy at day 5 using 500mb plots 1. ECWMF 2. UKMET 3. GFS 4. CMC 5. NOGAPS Great post. Clearly, the UKMet should garner more attention around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did anyone see brad panovich's video update? If not, here it is: thanks.....where does he work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Great post. Clearly, the UKMet should garner more attention around here. The problem with the UKMET is that very few have access to more than just 500mb and surface charts- more detailed stuff is eidently even more expensive than the Euro- my employer pays for the Euro stuff but not the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 He works for WCNC Channel 36 in Charlotte. thanks.....where does he work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did anyone see brad panovich's video update? If not, here it is: Excellent. I need to bookmark his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phil, I didn't realize how well the JMA verified in the day three range. Maybe it's coastal hugger shouldn't be laughed off, then. Yea I was kinda stunned that the JMA preformed pretty well over the last month. Too bad they don't have its scores out in the day 5 range... would be interesting to see if its still beating the GFS overall. For more stats... you gotta check out this site, really great resource for model error Z-scores and other scores if you are a statistical nerd like myself http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm a little worried about the NWS RAH staff over there. Must be the flu meds. It's going around this winter. I agree...I'm a little shocked to be honest. I don't ever remember RAH being this bullish. I've seen them a lot more conservative in situations I thought were a slam dunk. Maybe they see something I don't, besides they are the professionals and usually very good. I'm just seeing rain for the RDU area so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The problem with the UKMET is that very few have access to more than just 500mb and surface charts- more detailed stuff is eidently even more expensive than the Euro- my employer pays for the Euro stuff but not the Ukie. Yep, once we get within 72 hours, I do see 700mb Omega and 250/300mb maps (as well as 500mb/Sfc) of the UKMet on Dacula's page, which links to RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 'General' rule is 1 inch of QPF (liquid) equates to 10 inches of snow. It's never going to be that exact. Snow ratios depend on how cold the storm is overall. Also, ground temps and daytime vs. nightime snow affect accumulations. Keep in mind that map shows total QPF for the storm, but not all of that will be snow for many locations. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Talking about Brad's video on channel 36 in Charlotte, watched him on the 4:00 news, he said if the storm did bomb out, it would be like a cat.1 Hurricane coming up the coast with blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS to 72- not good at all, from what I can see it is going to dig the short wave from Canada even farther east than the previous run, thus moving either farther away from the Euro. I hate it when the models do this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS still well east of NAM's position of the s/w coming in from Canada at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL.. it looks even more east than the 12z! Every other model has been going strongly in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phil, you post some excellent research, man. Saw your model tracks graphic last evening as well. I mean, if folks are going to model hug, know to hug what works best & when, right? Haha... sometimes its fun to analyze a model to death just because you know the solution is extreme and its fun to describe the features. However, I think looking the ECWMF and the GFS ensembles last night... the shift of the 00z gfs to a huge winter storm was no fluke, since all of the operational models jumped on board, plus the spread in the 00z gfs ensemble guidance was significantly reduced in comparison to the 12z run. Its really more of a matter of how far west is this thing going to be when the trough amplifies and cuts off now, rather than having to guess if there will be a system... so we have made some progress. The features will be tough to nail down though of course until the event is on our doorstep. Did anyone see brad panovich's video update? If not, here it is: Wow nice video! I especially like the 6 hour precipitation and thickness plots he showed from the ECWMF (since most of the regular folks don't have access to that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS to 72- not good at all, from what I can see it is going to dig the short wave from Canada even farther east than the previous run, thus moving either farther away from the Euro. I hate it when the models do this..... But it is the Goofus and it hasn't been that good lately. Thanks Phil for that research! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yes, this GFS is doggie doo- next! It does worry me a tad when the best support for the Euro is the NAM.... Another big Euro vs GFS cage match...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 EE RULE BABY!!!!! Yes, this GFS is doggie doo- next! It does worry me a tad when the best support for the Euro is the NAM.... Another big Euro vs GFS cage match...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea I was kinda stunned that the JMA preformed pretty well over the last month. Too bad they don't have its scores out in the day 5 range... would be interesting to see if its still beating the GFS overall. For more stats... you gotta check out this site, really great resource for model error Z-scores and other scores if you are a statistical nerd like myself http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 EE RULE BABY!!!!! I was just getting ready to say that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.daculawea...wMelt_Water.pdf Thank you! I've saved that to my favs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS looks about the same as its 12z maybe further east, its overall setup is similar. Its high pressure looks way too weak over New England, and this allows the more easterly movement. All other models have a stronger high. Also, it also has the strong 960mb storm in Eastern Canada, so its solution is too far east too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If I could, I'd take the temperature profile from the 18z GFS and get the QPF from the Euro. Too bad it doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If I could, I'd take the temperature profile from the 18z GFS and get the QPF from the Euro. Too bad it doesn't work that way. LOL yeah you and me both! For now I will be sure to have the rain boots ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS looks about the same as its 12z maybe further east, its overall setup is similar. Its high pressure looks way too weak over New England, and this allows the more easterly movement. All other models have a stronger high. Also, it also has the strong 960mb storm in Eastern Canada, so its solution is too far east too quickly. Is it a valid option or should it be ignored? Or are we looking at some kind of hybrid between the euro and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW, Channel 17 Raleigh just posted this on Facebook... *JUST IN* NCDOT will begin pre-treating major roadways with salt brine Sunday morning in advance of winter weather Tuesday & Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Works every time folks... EE RULE BABY!!!!! Classic Tom...... FWIW, Channel 17 Raleigh just posted this on Facebook... *JUST IN* NCDOT will begin pre-treating major roadways with salt brine Sunday morning in advance of winter weather Tuesday & Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS looks about the same as its 12z maybe further east, its overall setup is similar. Its high pressure looks way too weak over New England, and this allows the more easterly movement. All other models have a stronger high. Also, it also has the strong 960mb storm in Eastern Canada, so its solution is too far east too quickly. Yea the GFS has been by far the most inconstant model today... but I think I have found the reason why the GFS is way more progressive with the system than the rest of the models. It seems that alot of this lack of amplification has to due with a kicker shortwave that is right on the heels of the first shortwave that moves into the United States. The 18z run has made this feature a lot stronger than what the 00z GFS run showed last night, or even what the 12z ECWMF had today. Basically, if this back shortwave trends more amplified, it will prevent as much amplification to the shortwave to the southeast that is causing our storm. Defiantly think this will be a feature to watch over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Excellent. I need to bookmark his site. Follow him on twitter as fell, always makes an effort to reply to any questions. @wxbrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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