Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here's some input from RAH in the afternoon discussion (excerpts only...the whole shebang is at https://nwschat.weat...-FXUS62-AFDRAH: THE OP ECMWF BRINGS THE COASTAL FRONT ONSHORE AND TAKES THE LOW ROUGHLY UP ALONG I-95 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION... HOWEVER WILL BROADEN THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE MODEL ERROR. THIS TRANSITION ZONE IS MOST LIKELY TO EXTEND ALONG HIGHWAY 1... WHICH EQUATES TO A MAINLY ALL-SNOW EVENT OVER THE TRIAD DOWN TO ALBEMARLE TO A MAINLY ALL-RAIN EVENT ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE EAST. THE TRIANGLE AREA DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES LIES WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVERS... OR MOSTLY RAIN IF THE LOW TRACK IS WELL WEST OF I-95... OR MOSTLY SNOW IF THE LOW TRACK HUGS CLOSE TO THE COAST. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH TO NORTH. Sounds like we will just have to wait and see what the Triangle gets out of this. Could be all snow, could be a mix, could be all rain. We are right on the line, which is usually the case. You never can tell it until it actually happens. And I am literally right at Highway 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 To take a step back for a moment .... Can there be ANY doubt that the GFS is simply not up to par as a model -- at least for wintertime patterns (the only one I really pay attention to)? Why any forecaster would go with the GFS in the medium range over ANY model (including the JMA, which really seems to do pretty well with these storms) is beyond me. To repeat and earlier post, the GFS has the surface low at 7 p.m. Tuesday in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the 0z run and off the Delmarva peninsula on the 12z run. Maybe the GFS gets better inside 48 hours, but I'm beginning to think it's worth even less than I thought -- absolutely nothing -- in the medium range. I"ll give it a little credit: It was the first model to bring back the Christmas storm in the medium range after the euro lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 haha well as always I am in the "unknown zone" with multiple changeovers possible as per RAH. I am not a fan of any inland track and will likely see mostly rain here I am thinking at this time. I have had a good amount of snow this year so I won't complain. I would however like to see my friends in the triangle get a make up storm for what happened last time. That had to feel like getting a hand job by a woman with cactus hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 To take a step back for a moment .... Can there be ANY doubt that the GFS is simply not up to par as a model -- at least for wintertime patterns (the only one I really pay attention to)? Why any forecaster would go with the GFS in the medium range over ANY model (including the JMA, which really seems to do pretty well with these storms) is beyond me. To repeat and earlier post, the GFS has the surface low at 7 p.m. Tuesday in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the 0z run and off the Delmarva peninsula on the 12z run. Maybe the GFS gets better inside 48 hours, but I'm beginning to think it's worth even less than I thought -- absolutely nothing -- in the medium range. There you go getting all logical again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That vortmax is the one the 12z GFS weakened too quickly and thus the wave failed to dig further south. The 18z NAM is actually a bit further west than the 12z Euro at 84 hrs. John, Taking your analysis of the 18z NAM being further west, what does that equate to down the road? A better solution for us snowlovers? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 after reading RAH disco this is how i interpreted their thoughts. from what i have seen/read the snow line is a bit too far east? http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid=207255134279344413692.00049a6182c2af42db622 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds like we will just have to wait and see what the Triangle gets out of this. Could be all snow, could be a mix, could be all rain. We are right on the line, which is usually the case. You never can tell it until it actually happens. And I am literally right at Highway 1. Well I'm in the SE corner of Wake, so you're in much better shape than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 John, Taking your analysis of the 18z NAM being further west, what does that equate to down the road? A better solution for us snowlovers? Thanks I would imagine it allows it to amplify more...a la the Euro as compared to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gonna be gone til Sunday night so... Cheez, Nega, Itunis, Dacula, and Lookout, you guys need to reel this baby in for the GA crowd. I expect to come back to big potential! Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would imagine it allows it to amplify more...a la the Euro as compared to the 12z GFS. Thank you sir! I am starting to get excited. I have not got jack done at work this afternoon. Thank goodness its the weekend to track this awesome potential! This MAY be the big one to break down that triangle of snow hell for good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FFC bought into the GFS and ignored the Euro altogether- if our NWS lurker is here, sorry, the forecast for near Hiawassee is pretty bold in its wimpiness: I'm REALLY starting to have an issue with FFC's forecast and thought processes, I'm sorry if you're lurking Steve, but what ARE you thinking? I listen to very good meteorologist right here all day long that say one thing and FFC seems to be the only office that doesn't think somethings going to happen. Are they looking at that stupid probability map that shows no snow in Georgia??? I have totally lost faith in what I read from them. Thank goodness for the great mets we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 after reading RAH disco this is how i interpreted their thoughts. from what i have seen/read the snow line is a bit too far east? http://maps.google.c...6182c2af42db622 Yep, that's what I visualized from their discussion, too. And I'd take it with plenty of QPF and high ratios. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well I'm in the SE corner of Wake, so you're in much better shape than I. This storm is your last chance for this year.The NC House and Senate convene Wed, Jan 26, 2011 12:00PM. After that time the hot air bubble over Raleigh will totally rule out any winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That had to feel like getting a hand job by a woman with cactus hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FFC bought into the GFS and ignored the Euro altogether- if our NWS lurker is here, sorry, the forecast for near Hiawassee is pretty bold in its wimpiness: I know a Met in the Charlotte TV market that seems to love the GFS too...Ch.3, cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Okay, I giving a play by play from now till the storm 1.) Tonight the Euro takes our hope away for the storm! 2.) Tomorrow the GFS, NAM take way our storm 3.) Sunday GFS starts to trend back to a storm but not so big, with the NAM to follow. 4.) Early in the wee morning hours of Monday the EURO, GFS are hinting this thing is going to be a major hit. 5.) Monday evening we start to get some people putting out amounts and lots are Happy and Few no so much. 6.) Tuesday it starts snowing and those who are getting snow are as happy as a cheshire cat. 7.) Wed. we add up the snow totals and find the winners and losers. At the same time we are already on the look out for then next storm. 8.) WED., Thurs those who got a foot plus of snow want more and those who got nothing want more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here's some input from RAH in the afternoon discussion (excerpts only...the whole shebang is at https://nwschat.weat...-FXUS62-AFDRAH: RAH is definitely bullish this far out. Mostly snow in Albemarle? A couple days ago the ECMWF had a strong eastern Canada low in teh 950's i think, which I doubted. I see the NAM also takes the southeast coastal and wraps it into this vortex, forming a 960 or 964, so thats an extremely strong vortex. Also, thats in our favor for the cold hanging around. If precip starts early on Tuesday morning in the damming areas, then temps at the surface are going to get way down there initially. Also, all models at this range have been sliding surface highs offshore prematurely lately....something else to think about. You throw moderate precip into surface air with wetbulbs mid to upper 20's and 850 around +1, and you've got a lot of sleet for some areas and thats what I see for central NC to northern SC maybe to eastern GA for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I will hold you to that. And if it happens, you da man! I was being sarcastic. However, this could slam the RDU area; it's too early to tell, really. I really wish you eastern NC people would stop wishing for a weaker OTS storm so y'all can get your little 2" snow. Personally here in the foothills we haven't had a big snowstorm over 10" since the late 90's probably. Y'all down east have had several, especially 2000. So sorry but it's our turn in the western piedmont and foothills!! People assume WNC get a lot more snow and that is not true unless you are the mtns, thats the true WNC. Had to let it out sorry, let's hope for a HECS and not a dud ok? Thanks Okay, so I'm supposed to root for a cold rain so you all can get 2' of snow. It's not so cut and dry that we get 2" of snow while you all get nothing vs. you all getting 2' of snow and us getting cold rain. We could get 2' of snow, as well (however unlikely). Regardless, Mother Nature doesn't give a hoot what we're rooting for, so what will happen will happen and there's nothing we can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This storm is your last chance for this year.The NC House and Senate convene Wed, Jan 26, 2011 12:00PM. After that time the hot air bubble over Raleigh will totally rule out any winter precip. Aint that the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This storm is your last chance for this year.The NC House and Senate convene Wed, Jan 26, 2011 12:00PM. After that time the hot air bubble over Raleigh will totally rule out any winter precip. FYI, 18z GFS just initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RAH is definitely bullish this far out. Mostly snow in Albemarle? A couple days ago the ECMWF had a strong eastern Canada low in teh 950's i think, which I doubted. I see the NAM also takes the southeast coastal and wraps it into this vortex, forming a 960 or 964, so thats an extremely strong vortex. Also, thats in our favor for the cold hanging around. If precip starts early on Tuesday morning in the damming areas, then temps at the surface are going to get way down there initially. Also, all models at this range have been sliding surface highs offshore prematurely lately....something else to think about. You throw moderate precip into surface air with wetbulbs mid to upper 20's and 850 around +1, and you've got a lot of sleet for some areas and thats what I see for central NC to northern SC maybe to eastern GA for a while. As for the Upstate....that's what we got here in '93.....a tremendous amount of sleet. I'm not sure what the liquid equivalent was but based on around 3" of sleet at a 4:1 ratio, it would have been somewhere in the .7 to .8 inch range. Very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 To take a step back for a moment .... Can there be ANY doubt that the GFS is simply not up to par as a model -- at least for wintertime patterns (the only one I really pay attention to)? Why any forecaster would go with the GFS in the medium range over ANY model (including the JMA, which really seems to do pretty well with these storms) is beyond me. To repeat and earlier post, the GFS has the surface low at 7 p.m. Tuesday in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the 0z run and off the Delmarva peninsula on the 12z run. Maybe the GFS gets better inside 48 hours, but I'm beginning to think it's worth even less than I thought -- absolutely nothing -- in the medium range. Lets apply some objective reasoning.... based upon the last month or so here are the model rankings in accuracy at day 5 using 500mb plots 1. ECWMF 2. UKMET 3. GFS 4. CMC 5. NOGAPS When you go to Day 3... the rankings look like this 1. ECWMF 2. UKMET 3. JMA 4 .GFS 5. CMC 6. NOGAPS So yes... the gfs is really just middle of the pack, while the European models (ECWMF and UKMET) are actually leading the way. Its also why when the UKMET and ECWMF agree about a 500mb pattern... lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yep, that's what I visualized from their discussion, too. And I'd take it with plenty of QPF and high ratios. We'll see. This is my thoughts personally based on what I have seen/read. I hope RAH is right though. http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid=207255134279344413692.00049a61ca6dc8d0f0cb9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phil, I didn't realize how well the JMA verified in the day three range. Maybe it's coastal hugger shouldn't be laughed off, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would imagine it allows it to amplify more...a la the Euro as compared to the 12z GFS. It would... I can't say exactly what it'll do beyond 84-- hopefully it'll dig a bit farther south than the Euro/GGEM to keep the warm temps at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would... I can't say exactly what it'll do beyond 84-- hopefully it'll dig a bit farther south than the Euro/GGEM to keep the warm temps at bay. Yep, if it can dip a little south you will get your foot....again trends say this is possible with a wider precip shield to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 haha well as always I am in the "unknown zone" with multiple changeovers possible as per RAH. I am not a fan of any inland track and will likely see mostly rain here I am thinking at this time. I have had a good amount of snow this year so I won't complain. I would however like to see my friends in the triangle get a make up storm for what happened last time. That had to feel like getting a hand job by a woman with cactus hands. :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: That's as excited an AFD as I can remember in years from RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Phil, you post some excellent research, man. Saw your model tracks graphic last evening as well. I mean, if folks are going to model hug, know to hug what works best & when, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would... I can't say exactly what it'll do beyond 84-- hopefully it'll dig a bit farther south than the Euro/GGEM to keep the warm temps at bay. Thanks JWow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did anyone see brad panovich's video update? If not, here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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