Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Today's models are looking a lot better than they were. Continue the discussion here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is starting to get good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 riangle area and points east, you better hope for a less amplified solution. To get a storm of the intensity of the GFS would almost certainly mean an inland track (possibly moreso than being shown), as the PNA ridge would need to be tall and steep and the S/W strong). Given the progged location of the ridge, a strongly digging S/W would lead to a low in the Gulf tracking NNE, right over Central NC. If the ridge was farther east, then the system would wind up farther east. What I don't know really is what effect the confluence would have on the storm track if it remained longer than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Trying to think back to the seasonal trends this winter and how they might affect this storm -- here are the ones I've noticed: 1) Speed. We are already seeing it with this storm, but my recollection is that the models -- especially in this range -- have often delayed the arrival of a storm by as much as 12-24 hours. This, I think, would not be good for our storm in that it would give our cold air source a chance to slide off the coast. 2) Intensity. This has been a clear trend -- the models have been to quick to shear out shortwaves moving across the souther tier. Now, the question is -- if the first wave ends up being stronger than advertised, how will that affect the second s/w? Or, if the first one really does poop out and the second one is even stronger than advertised ..... 3. Temps. The trend I have noticed is that the models trend colder in the medium range, but then swing back warmer near the end. For instance, the Euro showed no temp issues at all IMBY on the Jan. 11 event until about 48 hours out, when it started trending warmer and I ended up with some mixing at the end. Clearly, a late warm trend would be a death knell for me and many others. Now, I know this is a different setup in many respects (big closed low vs. overrunning, etc.) but I thought it might be helpful to look at seasonal trends and see how they might affect this storm. Would love for experts to weigh in .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to me the likely track will produce heavy snow for Mountains and Foothills with a mix from GSO east until you get to just east of RAH where it would be cold rain. In the Triad, I would look for a mix but predominately Snow/Sleet as dynamic cooling takes place as the low tracks north. Upstate SC, Ga mtns (especially western portions) would trend like GSO while HKY and west would be all snow. Any further north or west track would take the triad out of frozen precip into a nasty and dangerous FR rain mess and a slightly further south or east track could put RAH in the frozen stuff but diminish the amount of snow in the Western Piedmont/Foothills due to lower QPF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Track is a function of how deep this trough digs, it's orientation as it digs (i.e. when does it go neg), and the resultant cutoff, if one does form and where. I would urge caution going forward in regards to extreme scenarios that are starting to be advertised, at-least until we get inside 72hrs or the consensus improves. At this range, a subdued blended approach usually makes for a better forecast, both in terms of impacts on sensible weather and ones hope for SN. There is still sig spread in the ensembles, with the GFS for example split into at-least 3 camps. First camp forms a weak area of lp off the SE coast and takes it up the seaboard, or ots. Second camp is more like the operational run in forming a Gulf low and taking it just inland through the SE, traversing the central or eastern Carolinas. Third camp also forms the Gulf low, but takes it up the spine of the apps. It should be noted, that the op GFS is an extreme outlier in terms of strength compared to its ensemble, which as a mean keeps the week area of lp offshore, which given the spread in terms of timing and track makes sense. The Canadian is similar, with several members showing a track through the Carolinas, and also several offshore. Unlike the GFS however, the Canadian does not have any members with an Apps track, and the operational run is weaker than many of it's members, which fits the model better in the ensemble envelope compared to the Global. I don't have access to the EC members, just the mean, and that not surprisingly is weaker than the op, and indicates a track just off the coast. One Red Flag is the NOGAPS, which has a very progressive bias. The NOGAPS takes a track through SC and NC, with a 995 over Roanoke Rapids at 144hrs, which is slower than the general concsensus, however, could indicate a track even further west than what is currently shown if the bias is correct in this situation. The UKMET shows a more westward track, with the surface reflection over Boone at 144hrs, and this is also a caution signal as the UKMET is sometimes too progressive with systems coming out of the Gulf. The NOGAP and GGEM 0z run still held some energy back in the SW, though more progressive with it as it quickly shears out as the trough moves east. But this prevents the trough from digging further south and thus a more north and/or west SLP. The Euro and GFS no not leave any energy behind. There's still discrepancies with the mid-level output so any comparison to SLP placement isn't that important right now until consensus on whether this comes all east or if any energy is left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ok, just had a chance to ingest all the data and maps from last night and all I can say (for the southern apps) is...............wow. You know the last several days we were talking about this system or the next, one of these shortwaves should have a chance to deepen. With all the models locking into a more wound up solution so quickly and at 4-5 days away it will be important to see if 12z today and 0z tonight continue consistency in showing a rapidly deepening Miller A. If that occurs, I would say chances go up quite a bit. As it is, I think the liklihood of someone in the southern apps getting a snowstorm out of this is probably at least 50/50. Still a long way to go, but at least we aren't staring at day 7-10 potential. My biggest concern is that we will have to worry about a westward trend. I know it's not been a big trend so far this year, but a lot of the players are completely different now than what they have been most of the winter and I wonder if this trend begins to rear it's head again. This could put the southern apps into a situation where even we are dealing with rain. Good luck to everyone. I am glad areas to my south and east got POUNDED with this last big one. It will make me not feel so guilty if we do actually get a good snow here in ne TN. What a winter for us here in the SE this has been and is continuing with things to track! I really thought the next legit opportunity would be in early Feb. This appears to want to be the winter that just keeps giving. Spread the wealth baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z NAM energy diving down is stronger and a tad west of 00z @ 66HR. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_066l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 12z NAM is a little further west with the 5H versus 6z runs, over Mt/Idaho. It is starting to look like the initial s/w is going to slow down and be the catalyst for the incoming Plains trough. It should stall the line of precip and begin to develop a low around the northern Gulf later Monday, and thats the low that is very slow to develop waiting on the energy from the 5h to capture it. This would spell a big, slow wallop of a Winter storm in areas that are cold enough, on both sides of the Apps, but west of the Apps at first. With such strong divergence and transfer of energy, the snow would really fly and expand over Ark, Tennessee and southern KY, maybe even n. Miss. and N. Alabama. And the models probably aren't handling the digging right just yet since they all have the strong confluence zone in the Northeast, usually that is a sign that models adjust south later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ninas tend to be pretty progressive, but in this case, I believe there's quite a bit of a better shot of this thing trending more west than east. I would not be surprised if this turned out to be a TN classic special....if it turns out to be a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Further west and we could be looking at groundhogzilla repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maybe the jma was right the whole time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 what is groundhog zilla? The 84 NAM is a dynamite setup in the Southeast and Tenn Valley. Of course its the 84 hour. Looks like northern Miss/Ala. make out with good snow, the omegas are pretty strong with the slow moving trough there before it fizzles some, but it would get re-energized just after this period. Also, the coastal trough is forming, that also showed up on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What's going to happen to our CAD if this thing doesn't show up until Wed/Thurs? The 12z NAM is a little further west with the 5H versus 6z runs, over Mt/Idaho. It is starting to look like the initial s/w is going to slow down and be the catalyst for the incoming Plains trough. It should stall the line of precip and begin to develop a low around the northern Gulf later Monday, and thats the low that is very slow to develop waiting on the energy from the 5h to capture it. This would spell a big, slow wallop of a Winter storm in areas that are cold enough, on both sides of the Apps, but west of the Apps at first. With such strong divergence and transfer of energy, the snow would really fly and expand over Ark, Tennessee and southern KY, maybe even n. Miss. and N. Alabama. And the models probably aren't handling the digging right just yet since they all have the strong confluence zone in the Northeast, usually that is a sign that models adjust south later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As 2 other people mentioned, one was a panel showing "cold air" ,, trapped in around our area(s), the second person asked about this panel I'm posting here that shows the exact same thing... Taken with a grain of salt, looks like some of us Coasties maybe "In the Game" also for a "Surprize".... Another Met mentioned something about the "Bomb" possibly wrapping cold air around it self.... Any Met care to explain? This Panel? TIA CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ninas tend to be pretty progressive, but in this case, I believe there's quite a bit of a better shot of this thing trending more west than east. I would not be surprised if this turned out to be a TN classic special....if it turns out to be a bomb. Yeah, I think an Apps runner is more likely than just off the coast. Nothing stopping this from being an Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Raleigh is probably the most bullish I've seen on an event this far out. They still hate to really jump on too soon though. The statement below jumped out at me. They seem to say, complicated atmosphere(isn't it always) and remarkable model agreement so they can't buy in yet. Damn those agreeing models. THESE RUNS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN COMPARISON WITH EACH OTHER - QUITE AMAZING GIVEN THIS IS STILL FORECAST 4-6 DAYS OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PHASING AND COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY WE CAN NOT SIMPLY NOT FULLY ACCEPT THESE SOLUTIONS - YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, I think an Apps runner is more likely than just off the coast. Nothing stopping this from being an Apps runner. There actually is a lot preventing this from becoming an Apps runner..... Not saying it isn't out of the relm of possible scenerios but it is very unlikely Two examples that would prevent an apps runner: #1 the Arctic High dropping SE out of Canada Monday and Tuesday... #2 The s/w moving across the Great Lakes around this same time. Both would block the storm from cutting west of the Apps or even up the Apps. Track will most likely come down to either just inland, along the coast, or further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 what is groundhog zilla? The 84 NAM is a dynamite setup in the Southeast and Tenn Valley. Of course its the 84 hour. Looks like northern Miss/Ala. make out with good snow, the omegas are pretty strong with the slow moving trough there before it fizzles some, but it would get re-energized just after this period. Also, the coastal trough is forming, that also showed up on most models. Robert, that almost sounds like a repeat of the last storm, Ms/Al get hit good, the models showed a little bit of fizzle and then boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nothing about this setup indicates an apps runner to me. I think we're looking at a coastline/slightly inland tracker most likely. When you look at the NAO dropping, the trend towards a stronger 50/50 low over maine/NW atlantic, and the perfect position of the PNA, the pattern teleconnects well for a MECS. The only problem i have is the timing. The later, the more snow/rain we see, the earlier, the transition zone will feature more ice due to the CAD being a little more entrenched. The other alternative being a less amplified system and weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What's going to happen to our CAD if this thing doesn't show up until Wed/Thurs? The high aint going anywhere through the first part of the storm I don't think, unless the models really slow this down. I was surprised at how long the surface high stayed inland on last nights runs, but it makes sense since the confluence and blocking is strong throughout our storm. Honestly, we've already seen how this year the models slid the highs out too quickly..just happened on the weak mini-storm a few days ago. Thats a bias this year...now last year was a different story. The falling heights aloft will keep the 850's low, if you notice, the +3 is well south, and doesnt' get near the central and eastern Carolinas til the storm is cranking over the GA coast, which favors dynamic cooling north and west of the track, even with the initial high gone, the new high and low heights to the west are working in tandem to keep the storm cold core, very far south, which is unusual, but its happened already this year as well. Normally the Upstate to here has 950mb temp problems, but probably don't this storm since the cold is pretty extensive far south and we have initial damming and maintain northerly winds at the surface throughout. Dynamic cooling and a developing 850 low will only further cool the column IF the low goes to GA coast. Obviously a track furthern north and west would throw us warmer, the whole axis would shift west . I vividly remember the March 1993 storm, and went to Firetower mtn in Rutherford County and Benn Knob in Cleveland County in the heavy snow when it started...drove back down 226 to Shelby in the snow, then it went to sleet and rain and went back and forth all night. Our county was the transition county for the heart of the storm, until the next day and we switched to 6" of snow. we could be that way again if this track plays out, but this time its colder to start and it will come down to the surface cyclone track. Yeah, I think an Apps runner is more likely than just off the coast. Nothing stopping this from being an Apps runner. The confluence is strong in the Northeast and Canada and not shown to go anywhere so that should keep it supressed somewhat, but any delay would open the door to further west for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nothing about this setup indicates an apps runner to me. I think we're looking at a coastline/slightly inland tracker most likely. When you look at the NAO dropping, the trend towards a stronger 50/50 low over maine/NW atlantic, and the perfect position of the PNA, the pattern teleconnects well for a MECS. The only problem i have is the timing. The later, the more snow/rain we see, the earlier, the transition zone will feature more ice due to the CAD being a little more entrenched. The other alternative being a less amplified system and weaker system. Wouldn't the delaying of the storm potentially allow the 50/50 time to pull out, thus providing an opportunity for the storm to track farther inland? It seems like given the position of the ridge, IF the storm is going to bomb out, the very best case scenario would be snow in the western part of NC/foothills and mountains. It's hard for me to see areas much east of that being in the game at all, given the location of the ridge...again, if the storm bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 12z NAM is a little further west with the 5H versus 6z runs, over Mt/Idaho. It is starting to look like the initial s/w is going to slow down and be the catalyst for the incoming Plains trough. It should stall the line of precip and begin to develop a low around the northern Gulf later Monday, and thats the low that is very slow to develop waiting on the energy from the 5h to capture it. This would spell a big, slow wallop of a Winter storm in areas that are cold enough, on both sides of the Apps, but west of the Apps at first. With such strong divergence and transfer of energy, the snow would really fly and expand over Ark, Tennessee and southern KY, maybe even n. Miss. and N. Alabama. And the models probably aren't handling the digging right just yet since they all have the strong confluence zone in the Northeast, usually that is a sign that models adjust south later on. The piece of energy out in the Pacific may be influencing how far south this dig as it would teleconnect with a subtrop ridge downstream. NAM has it further east, which may be why it pulls the trough further west before the energy under 546dm heights phases in an pulls it back in line. What I'm a little excited about is the confluent flow over the NE. We do have some good agreement on a fairly strong (1030+ mb) high pressue setting up. As long as no AJ s/w's spin in and break it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hope things will work out better for Central and Western North Carolina this time. It will just be too hard to watch, another juicy system, going to waste, although we need the storm period for water tables. If it has to bomb out, maybe it could go slightly more right than models are indicating. Then more would get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll be doing the ol' 00z compared to 12z run as the GFS comes in. Got tons of work but this is too important. The bad thing is this is still so far away the little voice in the back of my head is saying it will probably all go to crap by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll be doing the ol' 00z compared to 12z run as the GFS comes in. Got tons of work but this is too important. The bad thing is this is still so far away the little voice in the back of my head is saying it will probably all go to crap by Sunday. At least right now CLT seems to be on the edge so it wont take a big shift east for us to get in on the game. As it stands now I'm only expecting a cold, cold, cold rain but I'm watching closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The most insightful posts on this board to me are from folks that have a feel for where the models are going to trend even before the next runs come out. Helluva post from HKYWX yesterday talking about the trend for the waves to consolidate into one big trough with it closing off in the Ohio or TN Valley, and with the potential for this to be big. Not saying he's the only one that thought that or posted about it, but that's exactly the way the runs last night trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models shifted pretty big in just 24 hours. We still have four days to go, so there is plenty time for them to change again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At least right now CLT seems to be on the edge so it wont take a big shift east for us to get in on the game. As it stands now I'm only expecting a cold, cold, cold rain but I'm watching closely. Well for once we might be on that brink of just really being in the sweet spot...but yea like you I'm not getting too excited it could be extremely painful to watch as just 50 miles to the west they get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well for once we might be on that brink of just really being in the sweet spot...but yea like you I'm not getting too excited it could be extremely painful to watch as just 50 miles to the west they get slammed. It it is 50 miles to the west while we are in rain (just a scenario), then I am on a roadtrip to a hotel or something to see it play out. Anyone in? I coudl not sit here with something so awesome right on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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