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2011 Drought Thread.


Isopycnic

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Where's the cold air when ya need it haha. Anyways it looks like a decent rain event, do we dare get two decent rains in a row?

Yeah, it would be nice to have some cold to go along with the precip. Wait til next year, I suppose. :arrowhead:

It looks like the forecast qpf amounts are falling as we get closer to the event. Nevertheless, widespread 1 inch amounts are still in the forecast for much of central NC.

p120i12.gif

There should be another front coming through in about 8 days. Hopefully that will give us another round of rain.

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New GFS is spitting out some good totals for the Saturday/Sunday system.

1.50'' to 2.00'' over most of NC with higher amounts in spots.

Yep, I was noticing that. Let's hope it pans out that way. The GFS still has another front coming through in the 6-7 day range with another round of rainfall for the area. I hope that pans out, too. I'm afraid the parade of fronts might end after next week and we go into another dry spell. I hope I'm wrong.

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Yep, I was noticing that. Let's hope it pans out that way. The GFS still has another front coming through in the 6-7 day range with another round of rainfall for the area. I hope that pans out, too. I'm afraid the parade of fronts might end after next week and we go into another dry spell. I hope I'm wrong.

Still looks pretty good.

GFS is upping the totals even more,especially in western NC with up to 2.5'' with a bullseye of 3''+ in SW NC and extreme NE GA./NW SC.

Looks a little less in E.NC but still not bad.

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this next system is about a carbon copy, so whatever your location got this past event, about the same for this next event , roughly speaking. A max area around Alabama, northern half of GA, western Carolinas, eastern half of TN, and then a relative min. over central SC to central NC (but maybe more than last event), and another max again around eastern NC/VA. Probably a 2" to 3" event for the Apps down to eastern Alabama again, with some spots over 4" again .

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this next system is about a carbon copy, so whatever your location got this past event, about the same for this next event , roughly speaking. A max area around Alabama, northern half of GA, western Carolinas, eastern half of TN, and then a relative min. over central SC to central NC (but maybe more than last event), and another max again around eastern NC/VA. Probably a 2" to 3" event for the Apps down to eastern Alabama again, with some spots over 4" again .

:( :( :angry: Any amount over the .22 I had from this past system would be nice :wub::)

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  • 2 weeks later...

going dry again. :thumbsdown: The only moisture I'm getting lately is the morning dew.

there might be some hope esp. for NC during the next 10 days. As the blocking in eastern Canada arrives, it might help stall or set up a tight boundary nw to se, which will be a nice baroclinic zone over TN to NC with a southern stream and periods of weak disturbances riding in the southern branch. The models have a hard time deciding which disturbances to keep in tact, and which are just false alarms, but I do think theres a good chance at something atleast during that time frame. It actually could trend into a pretty wet time later on, but no guarantees of course.

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there might be some hope esp. for NC during the next 10 days. As the blocking in eastern Canada arrives, it might help stall or set up a tight boundary nw to se, which will be a nice baroclinic zone over TN to NC with a southern stream and periods of weak disturbances riding in the southern branch. The models have a hard time deciding which disturbances to keep in tact, and which are just false alarms, but I do think theres a good chance at something atleast during that time frame. It actually could trend into a pretty wet time later on, but no guarantees of course.

For GA and Tenn Valley esp., this is turning into a heck of a wet pattern. Glad to see about all the Carolinas finally getting good rain as well, and its going to continue this week. Another good event Wed and probably one Friday, but that one might brush the coast, skipping interior, don't know yet. Beyond this,a cool down the weekend, before another amplified pattern, and traditional April flow takes over, which is normally a wild/amplified pattern of cool, then warm, with sunny and severe weather..just about everything. Lately, you could walk outside and breathe atleast.

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  • 5 weeks later...

.78 in the bucket yesterday. This brings my monthly total to.................... 5.03 :weight_lift::thumbsup::D I can't remember the last time we have had this much rain. ^_^

http://www.dnr.sc.go...d_120day_cd.php

You've got me beat in April. I had 3.26", GSP had 3.24". Could have been much worse, so pretty happy with things. I'm liking the looks of some high lat ridging over the next 2 weeks too, means more rain is coming for the Southeast, unfortunately the hail will be a problem in some areas.

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You've got me beat in April. I had 3.26", GSP had 3.24". Could have been much worse, so pretty happy with things. I'm liking the looks of some high lat ridging over the next 2 weeks too, means more rain is coming for the Southeast, unfortunately the hail will be a problem in some areas.

:wub: My total was 3.49 in April. I've had no complaints in the rainfall dept the past two months :thumbsup: It's been a welcomed change and one that I hope continues into the summer :hug:

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:wub: My total was 3.49 in April. I've had no complaints in the rainfall dept the past two months :thumbsup: It's been a welcomed change and one that I hope continues into the summer :hug:

well I didn't read when your 5"+ amount was. Now I see it was March, not April. My bad. But atleast we're getting something decent. Or were. I don't think this next system will do much for either of us. I wouldn't be surprised if Zero is the total around the midlands, and trace amounts here. It appears its so slow moving, all the dynamics will bypass the Carolinas almost totally now, maybe a sliver of a line coming through northern and western NC on early Wednesday.

post-38-0-36035800-1304270813.gif

post-38-0-10906500-1304270819.gif

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2.82" here for April. Kind of depressing but better than usual I suppose. Thankfully we'll have more rain on the way in the coming days.

its now not looking good for the rains in the Carolinas, until a week to 10 days. The Wed. front is losing dynamics here, but NC may squeeze out a quick something, other than that, we'll have to wait until a week for our next chance. The high-lat. blocking still looks likely, so the effects from that are usually good for us in the longer term, but we'll have to wait .

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