POWERSTROKE Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 rain on radar but most of it looks like heading a little north out of Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We are having a decent rain shower in Lincolnton, NC. I can actually hear the rain falling outside. It's been a while since I've heard that sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 it has rained steady all day since 930 this morning. it is still coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No dice in this part of the state. As a matter of fact this morning the smoke from the Cumberland County fire was noticeable up to Southern Pines from Fayetteville (SE winds this morning and nocturnal inversion). The sun is out down here and it is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 0.16" total for this event will not dent any droughts. In fact.... only the surface is damp. Still dry for the first 12" of soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 My CoCoRaHS was .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0.16" total for this event will not dent any droughts. In fact.... only the surface is damp. Still dry for the first 12" of soil. A pathetic .04" here. You can clearly see the line gapping up east of Asheville, before getting a little better organized around CLT although not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Almost .02" here - just enough to make the patio pavers change color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Got .30'' here but most of that fell yesterday.Precip is still having a tough time getting E of the mountains. 1.8'' for the month,staring at the 6th straight below normal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Today's rain: RDU .05" GSP .09" CLT .03" Shelby .04" This area from GSP to CLT and my area is around 5.5 to 6.5" of precip for the 3 month period starting December 1st...a very dry Winter here...same for RDU with 5.41" the winter total, compared to last years El Nino total of nearly 13" for many areas. Unfortunately, the next front looks about as dry for the Carolinas Monday. Dynamics will be weakening and a tenth or less is likely east of the mountains, while areas in Ga and west of the Apps are the recipients of much better dynamics. Situation is getting worse quickly now with drying winds and virtually no rain in sight for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Pretty pathetic here as well like Robert has been warning us about. My data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Today's rain: RDU .05" GSP .09" CLT .03" Shelby .04" This area from GSP to CLT and my area is around 5.5 to 6.5" of precip for the 3 month period starting December 1st...a very dry Winter here...same for RDU with 5.41" the winter total, compared to last years El Nino total of nearly 13" for many areas. Unfortunately, the next front looks about as dry for the Carolinas Monday. Dynamics will be weakening and a tenth or less is likely east of the mountains, while areas in Ga and west of the Apps are the recipients of much better dynamics. Situation is getting worse quickly now with drying winds and virtually no rain in sight for the Carolinas. Got .06" here. Agree that things are about to get much worse unless this pattern changes, but good rains seem to always be 7-10 days away. As we end February and go through March, evaporation rapidly increases with increased sun angle which will dry out any moisture left in the topsoil. Also trees and plants will begin to pull moisture out of the ground as they become active in the next few weeks. With such a large area of dryness that extends from the southern plains to the southeast we really have to begin thinking this will most likely be where the mean ridge will begin take shape as we head further into spring especially summer. Still plenty of time for this to change, but it needs to happen soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If the mean ridge forms in that location, would that deflect most tropical systems this summer? I just don't see the pattern changing soon enough to help for this spring and summer. I was hoping we would get a huge snow in the late winter season giving a good widespread event; but, that seems unlikely at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Got .06" here. Agree that things are about to get much worse unless this pattern changes, but good rains seem to always be 7-10 days away. As we end February and go through March, evaporation rapidly increases with increased sun angle which will dry out any moisture left in the topsoil. Also trees and plants will begin to pull moisture out of the ground as they become active in the next few weeks. With such a large area of dryness that extends from the southern plains to the southeast we really have to begin thinking this will most likely be where the mean ridge will begin take shape as we head further into spring especially summer. Still plenty of time for this to change, but it needs to happen soon. and here's another 7 to 10 days away on the ECMWF, which I wouldn't take to the bank yet, but its nice to dream about...a cold front comes through the Southeast, then the southern part cuts off and spins an upper low in the Gulf Coast region, supplying good convergence and 3 to 4" of rain over the Apps region and good 2 to 3" of rain in the piedmont. The GFS doesn't have this. More often than not, we get a token wet period to start Spring, before the mean ridge sets up for the next 6 months, and this could be ours. If the recent past is any indicator, then if anything like this does occur nearby, it will probably work more toward GA, TN and AL favor , leaving the Carolinas on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 and here's another 7 to 10 days away on the ECMWF, which I wouldn't take to the bank yet, but its nice to dream about...a cold front comes through the Southeast, then the southern part cuts off and spins an upper low in the Gulf Coast region, supplying good convergence and 3 to 4" of rain over the Apps region and good 2 to 3" of rain in the piedmont. The GFS doesn't have this. More often than not, we get a token wet period to start Spring, before the mean ridge sets up for the next 6 months, and this could be ours. If the recent past is any indicator, then if anything like this does occur nearby, it will probably work more toward GA, TN and AL favor , leaving the Carolinas on the edge. Was looking at that very thing Robert. Its a great setup for us with a fairly slow moving upper level cutoff low that would give us an extended wet period but this year we really can't trust the EURO at all in this time range. If its 7-10 day QPF maps verified we would have over a foot of rain this month. I was actually optimistic about February as I received 2.23" of rain in the first week. Since then only the .06" I got yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 If the mean ridge forms in that location, would that deflect most tropical systems this summer? I just don't see the pattern changing soon enough to help for this spring and summer. I was hoping we would get a huge snow in the late winter season giving a good widespread event; but, that seems unlikely at this time. Yes this would deflect most of the tropical activity away from the southeast. They would either get picked up by the trough downstream of the ridge or get steered by the ridge westward though the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Mexico and possibly the northwest gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Well it's been so dry and no rain in sight we are going to have to get our backflows installed on the irrigation a lot sooner. I am installing mine today, there isn't a hint of freeze coming so might as well get the grass going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The ECMWF still has the deep cutoff in the Gulf Coast region. It starts as a slow moving trough across the deep south, then cuts off, and eventually gets phased into a northern stream trough, which deepens a surface low over the Ohio Valley and has snow on the backside, with a cold airmass coming into the Tenn Valley. Overall, the setup is a good one for a big rain event, but some area may miss out on the best lift, but time for that to be nailed down later, even assuming this run is close to right. It has over 4" of precip in GA , Al, Tenn. and a lot of rain for much of the eastern half of the country, though verbatim not much shown yet for central to eastern Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yes this would deflect most of the tropical activity away from the southeast. They would either get picked up by the trough downstream of the ridge or get steered by the ridge westward though the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Mexico and possibly the northwest gulf coast. That's what I kind of figured. I hope we get some substantial rain soon or our region will be in real drought trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Tomorrow's system is looking better, GFS is spitting out .75'' to 1.00'' totals for west-central NC. NAM isn't too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 4 drops last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'm curious to see how much rain we get this evening. The models have really bumped up qpf totals across central NC. The 12Z runs of the GFS and NAM both have in excess of .50 qpf amounts for central NC. I'm not sure I buy the higher amounts, but it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'm curious to see how much rain we get this evening. The models have really bumped up qpf totals across central NC. The 12Z runs of the GFS and NAM both have in excess of .50 qpf amounts for central NC. I'm not sure I buy the higher amounts, but it would be nice. With the convective nature of this event you are going to have some that get much more than 0.5" and then some that receive very little if anything. Thats just the nature of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 With the convective nature of this event you are going to have some that get much more than 0.5" and then some that receive very little if anything. Thats just the nature of these things. You don't think we will get more widespread coverage out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 You don't think we will get more widespread coverage out of this? i think due to the timing of this system we will do better than average is it is coming thru during the late afternoon and early evening hours when instability will be maxed out. The thing I am noticing on radar is the consolidation into a solid squall line. That in itself would lead to widespread heavy rain totals. However even in robust squall lines small gaps of weaker echoes can form. Its happened to me plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 i think due to the timing of this system we will do better than average is it is coming thru during the late afternoon and early evening hours when instability will be maxed out. The thing I am noticing on radar is the consolidation into a solid squall line. That in itself would lead to widespread heavy rain totals. However even in robust squall lines small gaps of weaker echoes can form. Its happened to me plenty of times. Thanks! Hoping for the best here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 not a bad event. I think we got close to .75 in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 0.81" will be absorbed... happily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 .44 last night, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 .85" in the gauge in the back yard. .74" officially 3 miles up the road at KRWI. It is a good start. Hope the system this weekend holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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