Will NYC eclipse 100 inches when it is over and done ?

[A-L-E-X]

David Ludlum's Early American Winters books have some information, but concrete data for stations is sparse.

FWIW, I compiled all my notes on major 19th century snowstorms and posted them here: http://content.yudu....he-19th-Century

The January 1857 blizzard is included.

Wonderful book, Don! I bet you included March 1843 also!

[A-L-E-X]

Im reading through your accounts of Jan 1831, Jan 1836, and 1837-- what wonderful winter months! I wish we knew what ENSO they had lol. AO/NAO was clearly negative, maybe another solar min.

Baro Pressure 28.70 in at New Haven, CT with a blizzard from DC to Maine-- intense stuff right there!

[donsutherland1]

Wonderful book, Don! I bet you included March 1843 also!

Thanks, ALEX. I certainly did include the March 1843 snowstorm.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks, ALEX. I certainly did include the March 1843 snowstorm.

Just got to that part now-- 2 feet of snow in NYC wow, with strong gusty winds to boot-- April 1841 was another nice late season snowstorm with 15 inches at NYC and LGA. I also read about the late season hurricane that brought snow to the area in October 1841. Feb 1845 with another 20 incher. Looks like Jan 1856 and 1857 both featured big 2 foot snowstorms and by the sounds of it the winter weather lovers loved big snowstorms back then just as much as we do today! Thanks for this treasure trove of resources, Don I love reading about old snowstorms!

Read about March 21, 1867 producing over two feet of snow in Philadelphia, on the first day of spring-- what an amazing storm that must have been! And it looks like it was the second blizzard that winter; there was one in the previous December also.

Just backtracked to read about Jan 1805 and how we got a 3 foot snowstorm-- must be one of the greatest snowstorms of that era, right Don? I havent found anything greater than that so far. The only thing that I think you could have added would be some tales of some of our great Revolutionary war era winters-- I know there was one in there that featured three huge snowstorms (1782-83 I think?) Also read about a couple of May snowstorms in 1803 and 1811 that produced several inches of snow.

[uncle W]

we might end up with more snowfall than last year...It would become the first year to out snow a previous heavy snow season...1915-16 and 1916-17 were tied with 51"...No other year out did a previous way above normal season 35" or more...

[snywx]

Upton out on Long Island got to 90.9" in 1995-96-- quite close to 100"!

Upton is no where near NYC... If thats the case then the same can be said for most of Orange county.....

[A-L-E-X]

Upton is no where near NYC... If thats the case then the same can be said for most of Orange county.....

No, because Orange County is inland and Upton is on the coastal plain. The climate is much more similar than Orange County's. At any rate, according to Don's research there were a few good candidates from the 19th century for close to 100 inch snowfall. Philly getting close to 80 inches last year shows that 1995-96 likely isnt the ceiling for snowfall.

[donsutherland1]

Just got to that part now-- 2 feet of snow in NYC wow, with strong gusty winds to boot-- April 1841 was another nice late season snowstorm with 15 inches at NYC and LGA. I also read about the late season hurricane that brought snow to the area in October 1841. Feb 1845 with another 20 incher. Looks like Jan 1856 and 1857 both featured big 2 foot snowstorms and by the sounds of it the winter weather lovers loved big snowstorms back then just as much as we do today! Thanks for this treasure trove of resources, Don I love reading about old snowstorms!

Read about March 21, 1867 producing over two feet of snow in Philadelphia, on the first day of spring-- what an amazing storm that must have been! And it looks like it was the second blizzard that winter; there was one in the previous December also.

Just backtracked to read about Jan 1805 and how we got a 3 foot snowstorm-- must be one of the greatest snowstorms of that era, right Don? I havent found anything greater than that so far. The only thing that I think you could have added would be some tales of some of our great Revolutionary war era winters-- I know there was one in there that featured three huge snowstorms (1782-83 I think?) Also read about a couple of May snowstorms in 1803 and 1811 that produced several inches of snow.

I agree about the love of snow. I suspect that won't change unless human nature changes dramatically a long time into the future.

The 1805 snowstorm was certainly one of the biggest in NYC history. As for the Revolutionary War era, material is sparse. I think 1783-84 was the winter with the triple snowstorms (I'll have to check that info. this evening, just to be sure). I do have short accounts for both the May 1803 and May 1812 snowfalls.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks Don! I found the read engrossing and I bet you could add more to it. I believe the triple snowstorms were more for new england, not sure how much NYC got out of them?

[A-L-E-X]

Another great historical reference:

http://books.google.com/books?id=34RKv9fMFo4C&printsec=frontcover&dq=pennsylvania+weather+book&source=bl&ots=CoTk3MNfWa&sig=BtBXVJzifqE0qdMwdFy8XeKbDrg&hl=en&ei=S8w5Tcr9KIyt8Aby0eGdCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CCMQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false

[cablesmike]

I hate winter, and thank God it is more then halfway over. Days starting to increase by almost 2 mins every day now, and sun angle above 30 degress for NYC. Every day getting stronger!!!

[snywx]

No, because Orange County is inland and Upton is on the coastal plain. The climate is much more similar than Orange County's. At any rate, according to Don's research there were a few good candidates from the 19th century for close to 100 inch snowfall. Philly getting close to 80 inches last year shows that 1995-96 likely isnt the ceiling for snowfall.

I would think E LI is more associated with SNE than NYC..

[A-L-E-X]

I would think E LI is more associated with SNE than NYC..

Depends on how you look at it. Im going by average snowfall and Upton's average snowfall over the period of record is only slightly higher than NYC (something like 30 inches vs 28.)

[A-L-E-X]

N. Shore of L.I. has a winter climate pretty similar to S. Shore of western and central CT.

Theyre not that different from NYC in terms of average snowfall though. Bridgeport probably has the least snowiest climate in new england outside of Groton and Block Island. The differences in percentage over mean snowfall of 30 inches vs 28 inches is only about 8 percent. My main point here is that NYC can get 100 inches of snowfall given the right circumstances and I think with the kind of winter the MA had last year, that with that kind of consistent pattern up here coupled with a decent March, we could pull it off. It's been done in the 1800s (in both NYC and Philly), when they measured snowcover as total snowfall. Everything has to break right though and I would put 100" at the limit of what is possible given the "perfect" winter.

[snywx]

Theyre not that different from NYC in terms of average snowfall though. Bridgeport probably has the least snowiest climate in new england outside of Groton and Block Island. The differences in percentage over mean snowfall of 30 inches vs 28 inches is only about 8 percent. My main point here is that NYC can get 100 inches of snowfall given the right circumstances and I think with the kind of winter the MA had last year, that with that kind of consistent pattern up here coupled with a decent March, we could pull it off. It's been done in the 1800s (in both NYC and Philly), when they measured snowcover as total snowfall. Everything has to break right though and I would put 100" at the limit of what is possible given the "perfect" winter.

Wouldnt you think Upton has a greater chance of achieving 100" than NYC?

[A-L-E-X]

Wouldnt you think Upton has a greater chance of achieving 100" than NYC?

Of course.... I remember having this discussion after last winter with Will and a few others (and even before last winter) and based on a few factors-- for example, the 19th century winters, the snowfall pattern in 1995-96 and 2004-05 (for the Cape, when they got 100 inches) and last winter, we came up with a potentially maximum seasonal snowfall of around 88 inches for JFK and 92 inches for NYC.... the margin of error is significant enough for 100 inches to be within it. Upton would have an upper limit around 120 inches based on that. We also did a what-is-the-maximum-possible-snowfall kind of thing and used March 1888 as a model (also, to a lesser extent February 1899 which dumped 35" on the extreme southern tip of NJ.)

March 1888 was probably undermeasured at NYC based on surrounding reports (which include 26 inches from southern Brooklyn and 38 inches from the north shore of Queens, which agrees well with the 44 inches from New Haven, CT.) You could interpolate that to mean about 30" for NYC. Based on that, and going with a colder version of that storm could mean a ceiling of 40" for the "perfect" snowstorm for NYC. Not unreasonable given the fact that Cape May, NJ got 34" in the Feb 1899 blizzard and theyre 120 miles south of NYC.

[A-L-E-X]

I see you reading this thread, Nate, and you can tell this has evolved into the kind of discussions you and I get into often lol.

[A-L-E-X]

During the 2004-05 winter sections of SE Massachusetts saw around 100" of snow...though they generally averaged in the 30" - 35" range...that winter Upton saw 78.5" while KNYC was in the 40" - 50 " range...Central Park has been doing very well the last couple of years...during the 80's the consensus was that there was a "roof" over the Park..explaining the paltry snow totals...in a so called "perfect" winter both stations could approach 100"...Upton's main edge is that it is a/ not in an urban area, and b/ able to get a little more impact from developing cyclones as they pass east of the area and intensify.

Hey William, what do you think of the numbers I posted above?

[A-L-E-X]

BTW and for what its worth the Jan 1996 Blizzard was definitely undermeasured at NYC based on EWR and LGA and the April snowstorm was a tick too far east. Given that and the January meltdown that happened, you're talking about a loss of over a foot of snow right there. 90" would have been easy reach that season for NYC.

[A-L-E-X]

Recall when Upton beat CPK 91" to 75" in 1995-96...they were basically dead even going into April...when two storms produced 16" out at Upton but virtually nothing at CPK because the ground was too warm in the City...

lol stop reading my mind, William!

[A-L-E-X]

They're plausible. The problem is our climate record is way too short. If we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of Maunder Minimum...anything is possible. I used to be amazed when I was younger how close Long Island was to receiving considerably more snow than they did...I though to myself if they were only two or three degrees colder on average, snowfall would probably double. Thus if we are entering a colder phase...all bets are off.

Snowfall is very finicky, even in mild winters we have sometimes gotten well above normal snowfall because of just one or two storms.

[A-L-E-X]

That is common in areas that do not average a lot of snow...

Just showing a lot of snow can fall in a short time even in an unfavorable pattern, imagine if we had a long term "great" pattern-- well, I guess we dont really have to just imagine it

[Snowshack]

They're plausible. The problem is our climate record is way too short. If we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of Maunder Minimum...anything is possible. I used to be amazed when I was younger how close Long Island was to receiving considerably more snow than they did...I thought to myself if they were only two or three degrees colder on average, snowfall would probably double. Thus if we are entering a colder phase...all bets are off.

I think William's point is an important one to keep in mind in a discussion such as this. Really, almost anything is possible because we just have not been witness long enough.

If we were to hit 100" though, I would think it would be in a year with measurable snow Nov - Apr (just like 95/96 in my area). To do it this year in NYC would mean it occured in basically a 13 week stretch (Dec 26 - Mar 31), Thats averaging nearly 8" per week. Although DC broke their annual record last year with snow in basically two months..

[uncle W]

the most snow by the end of January and what followed...NYC has 36.1" so far with 10 more days left in the month...Next week probably will add to the total and the record might be reached...The most snow by the end of January was in 1947-48...44.9"...

The top eleven...

season...snowfall by 1/31...snowfall 2/1 to end...Total

1947-48..............44.9"..............18.3"..............63.2"

1872-73..............41.1"..............19.2"..............60.3"

1904-05..............40.5"................7.6"..............48.1"

1995-96..............40.5"..............35.1"..............75.6"

2003-04..............37.1"................5.5"..............42.6"

2010-11..............36.1"...............................................................

1960-61..............35.3"..............19.4"..............54.7"

1876-77..............33.5"................6.9"..............40.4"

1922-23..............33.5"..............26.9"..............60.4"

1883-84..............32.8"..............10.3"..............43.1"

1948-49..............31.7"..............14.9"..............46.6"

[Chris L]

BTW and for what its worth the Jan 1996 Blizzard was definitely undermeasured at NYC based on EWR and LGA and the April snowstorm was a tick too far east. Given that and the January meltdown that happened, you're talking about a loss of over a foot of snow right there. 90" would have been easy reach that season for NYC.

NYC is closer to 28" for '96.

[donsutherland1]

Alex,

The 18th century winter with the triple snowstorms was 1786-87. I earlier had stated that I thought it was 1783-84 (another memorable winter) and was mistaken.

[Fozz]

I think NYC will get 60+, and may even break its all time record, but anyone who thinks 100" or more has to be a super weenie.

[NorthShoreWx]

Upton out on Long Island got to 90.9" in 1995-96-- quite close to 100"!

95" IMBY...soooo close....

[masomenos]

While I find the snow storm accounts from the mid 1800s and earlier interesting and entertaining, I tend to take them with a grain of salt. They are very inconsistent from report to report and rarely contain detailed measurements.

[masomenos]

There were other priorities back then...

You'd figure that there had to be some people back then that took the initiative to keep detailed weather/snow records. That's around the time the ideas created during the scientific revolution really began to take hold in everyday life.