Will NYC eclipse 100 inches when it is over and done ?

[Mikehobbyst]

Discuss possibilities and what looks to unfold for the rest of the winter.

[ayuud]

easy 100"

[nzucker]

It's pretty crazy to even think of this as a possibility, but it's not out of the question with Central Park approaching 40" on January 21st with another major Nor'easter on the models for next week, and the pattern looking cold/stormy in the longer range. A MECS/HECS next Tuesday would put us within reach of the seemingly impossible century mark; I thought the 72" at Central Park in 95-96 would never be eclipsed, but the reality is that it could happen in Winter 10-11. Here in the suburbs, it's a bit more realistic to contemplate this if we get a major system next week.

This strong La Niña winter has had it all...major blizzards with epic winds, powder snowfalls, arctic temperatures, long duration snow cover, persistent cold, and ice. It's been an incredible ride here and we're not even close to done yet.

[A-L-E-X]

It's pretty crazy to even think of this as a possibility, but it's not out of the question with Central Park approaching 40" on January 21st with another major Nor'easter on the models for next week, and the pattern looking cold/stormy in the longer range. A MECS/HECS next Tuesday would put us within reach of the seemingly impossible century mark; I thought the 72" at Central Park in 95-96 would never be eclipsed, but the reality is that it could happen in Winter 10-11. Here in the suburbs, it's a bit more realistic to contemplate this if we get a major system next week.

This strong La Niña winter has had it all...major blizzards with epic winds, powder snowfalls, arctic temperatures, long duration snow cover, persistent cold, and ice. It's been an incredible ride here and we're not even close to done yet.

The last time NYC and Philly had 100" of snow in a season was back in the 1830s-- back then they also had constant snowcover from November thru March. It's crazy how we were reading about that last year thinking it never has a chance of happening again, but you never know.

[MJO812]

I'm going with 60-70 inches. February looks like a really active month.

[Stormlover74]

100 will be very tough without another Dec 26th type storm. Even if we get one 3 to 6 event each week the rest of the winter thats about 2 to 3 more feet which would be in the 60 to perhaps 80" mark. I'm sure we'll have a few weeks where we get a thaw and don't see much snow but could make up for it by getting another really big storm of 18-30"

It's pretty crazy to even think of this as a possibility, but it's not out of the question with Central Park approaching 40" on January 21st with another major Nor'easter on the models for next week, and the pattern looking cold/stormy in the longer range. A MECS/HECS next Tuesday would put us within reach of the seemingly impossible century mark; I thought the 72" at Central Park in 95-96 would never be eclipsed, but the reality is that it could happen in Winter 10-11. Here in the suburbs, it's a bit more realistic to contemplate this if we get a major system next week.

This strong La Niña winter has had it all...major blizzards with epic winds, powder snowfalls, arctic temperatures, long duration snow cover, persistent cold, and ice. It's been an incredible ride here and we're not even close to done yet.

[Alpha5]

With around 40" for NYC now, we'd need a February like DC had last year to reach 100. Probably a 30" even from the upcoming possible MECS then another 30" from February.

Was 95-96 the highest on record?

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, we need another Dec 26 2010 like storm. The good news is, there is a greater than normal chance of it happening with the kind of February pattern we might be getting into.

[donsutherland1]

NYC almost certainly won't reach 100".

To date (including today's snowfall), NYC's seasonal snowfall is 36.1" That means NYC needs another 63.9" to reach 100".

The record February-April snowfall total is 41.9" (1915-16). If NYC matched that record, its seasonal snowfall would still be short by 22.0". Hence, NYC would need next week's storm to dump nearly two feet of snow and then it would need to match the February-April snowfall record.

[A-L-E-X]

NYC almost certainly won't reach 100".

To date (including today's snowfall), NYC's seasonal snowfall is 36.1" That means NYC needs another 63.9" to reach 100".

The record February-April snowfall total is 41.9" (1915-16). If NYC matched that record, its seasonal snowfall would still be short by 22.0". Hence, NYC would need next week's storm to dump nearly two feet of snow and then it would need to match the February-April snowfall record.

Don, what do you think of those winters back in the 1830s when Philly and NYC got 100"? A magnificent time to be a winter weather lover no doubt.

[psv88]

Don, what do you think of those winters back in the 1830s when Philly and NYC got 100"? A magnificent time to be a winter weather lover no doubt.

i dont think anyone was a winter weather lover in the 1830's...with the lack of indoor plumbing, heating, electricity...

[A-L-E-X]

i dont think anyone was a winter weather lover in the 1830's...with the lack of indoor plumbing, heating, electricity...

Maybe not lol. The idea of constant snowcover from November thru March seems much more alluring to us than it would be to anyone without proper heating. All they probably had for heat were fireplaces. Maybe kerosene burners?

[A-L-E-X]

Cant find out what they had for heating back then, but I located this telegraph from the March 1888 Blizzard.

http://home.comcast.net/~m.chitty/blizzard.htm

Blizzard of 1888

previous: NY Life

The Blizzard of 1888 lasted 36 hours and began on March 12. New York City was virtually isolated when snow halted transportation and disrupted communications. Messages to Boston were relayed via England [Enc Am Facts & Dates] National Geographic 1888 I:37.

50 West 24th Street

New York

March 13th/88

My dear Son,

Are you snowed up or snowed down or snowed under? I do not find any news from Middletown in any of the papers, although there seems to be all the other places in the State mentioned. I pray you are safe. No use to telegraph you for you would not get it.

Went to rehearsal yesterday at 11. After Stage manager, prompter and the stage hands, no one was there but Mr. [EM] Holland and Mr. [Harry] Hogan and myself. The wind coming from the West made it very difficult for me to get back home, but I got here safe and have not been out since, as the theatre was closed last night, Mr. [James H] Stoddart not being able to get here from Rahway [New Jersey].

I guess he is here now, as I have been notified that we are to play tonight. Snow and sleet are falling fast, and I think our house will be slim. This is my tenth consecutive winter in the City, and this is by far the heaviest snow storm we have had. Even the elevated roads were compelled to stop running. 6th Ave surface cars not running yet.

I hope I shall hear from you soon, for I thought of you all day yesterday and today, battering with the storm through your long walk to the factory or perhaps "called out" by fire. Write when you get this, if you have only time to write me one sentence. The papers have very little news that you can rely on. Hoping that you have not had much hardship. With love and Kisses I am your loving Mother

Middletown Blizzard photograph http://www.thrall.org/middletown/c1_16.htm

50 West 24th Street

New York

March 15th [1888]

My dear Son,

No news from you yet. Only news from Middletown this morning was the destruction of a church in a village near there. I wonder if you had to go to that.

Mr. [James H] Stoddart left home on Monday 9 AM. In driving to the Station his wagon broke down, and he and his man had to mount the horses & get to the station. He remained in Rahway at the hotel until yesterday morning, when he came with a train of three engines and got to the City about 5 PM yesterday.

He does not know how his man got home, and his people do not know anything about him. We closed Monday night, and Tuesday night Mr. [John] Findlay went on for Mr. Stoddart's part.

The weather is getting a little warmer and the Sun did a little thawing today. I do not venture out, except to the theatre. Have not had news from Hattie since Monday 11 AM.

The newspapers I guess have reached you by this time and will give you more news than I can. I hope I shall soon hear from you. Love and Kisses from your loving Mother

50 West 24th Street

New York

March 18th/88

My dear Son,

You must have had a rough time of it, but I am glad it was no worse. I could not reach you by telegraph or mail, so had to wait. I imagined all sorts of things though.

Well all our human greatness was put at a stand still in a few hours. We were quite as much cut off from the outside world as you were in your country town. It was dreadful.

Provisions advanced in price. Coal rose 50 per cent. No milk to be had. The poor must have suffered dreadfully. But, "an ill winds that blows nobody good". Men had employment given them and it will be many days yet before they are idle, for the snow still lingers in the lap of Spring.

I wrote you Friday and enclose $2. Will enclose a V in this. Hope your factory will be in working order again this week.

So you had to stop at Hotel all night. The hotels in New York were filled to their utmost capacity. So were the waiting rooms at Depots and station houses. Oh it has been a lively time, but cold. Love and Kisses from your loving Mother

JH Stoddart writes of the blizzard in his memoirs. "We produced a very pretty play called Heart of Hearts at the Madison Square on January 16, 1888. I had a long and a very good part in it. I remember this play more vividly than any other of my experience for it was played in the year of the great blizzard.

"I was living, at the time, on my farm in New Jersey, and...at the height of the great storm I left home for the theatre some hours before my usual time...The drifts of snow were up to the horses' shoulders. [After the cart broke down and the horses were worn out he tried the railway but couldn't get to New York for two days (or return home.] ...At last I reached New York, I could scarcely recognize it. Broadway looked like the arctic regions with its mountains of snow, which in many places were tunneled and fires built underneath to get rid of the enormous drifts.[ Recollections of a Player]

50 West 24th Street

New York

April 18th/88

My dear Son

I expect we shall rehearse Jim [the Penman] next week, as we open with it in Boston next Wed'day. However I can get away from Monday rehearsal, if you think I had better stay all night and take 9 AM train on Monday.

I do not mind taking the 7:20 train Sunday night as I shall be here before 11, and it is after that hour when I get home every night. The 23rd Street ferry is very convenient to this house.

We leave for Boston on the 29th for five weeks. Get back 3rd of June. Today bought trunk for the trip -- $22, gloves for Jim and Partners $6.90. A pretty big hole in salary. Well half a loaf is better than none, and that is about what it amounts to.

Will have to see how much my expenses are in Middletown before I give you any this week. I shall not have to buy a trunk next week. Of course you have heard that Roscoe Conkling expired at 2 this morning. Another great man gone. No more this time, but love and Kisses from your loving Mother

Madison Square Park now has a statue of Roscoe Conkling, US senator and presidential candidate, who died of exposure after trying to walk home from his downtown office in the Blizzard of 1888. Blue Guide NY

[A-L-E-X]

This site has some more great Blizzard of 1888 stories:

http://www.vny.cuny....tories_set.html

Preface:

Disasters often are referred to as "great equalizers"-- everyone, no matter their race, ethnicity, gender, or class, is effected. Yet, individuals respond to disasters in different ways, influenced by who they are, and the resources to which they have access. When the Blizzard of 1888 struck, men, women and children of all backgrounds were stuck outside in the howling wind, struggling against the cold and through the towering snowdrifts towards their homes. However, when New York City's wealthier citizens got home, they were safe and warm and, in many cases, able to depend upon stocked groceries and supplies. Many New Yorkers weren't so lucky, and had to wait out the storm with whatever shelter and provisions they could muster. For days immediately following the blizzard, as the region dug itself out, New York City suffered from a coal shortage, as well as a shortage of produce, meat, and milk.

All New Yorkers were, at the very least, inconvenienced by the blizzard, and many of those individuals who lived far from where they worked or wherever they were when the blizzard intensified on Monday morning found themselves stranded. The city's hotels overflowed, and several provided cots in the lobby for stranded travelers-- some for rental, some free of charge. Taverns were particularly packed, warming patrons with companionship and spirits. Some entrepreneurs saw the chaos of the blizzard as an opportunity to raise prices: a grocer on 8th Street raised the price of a pail of coal from ten cents to one dollar. The public frowned upon such price gouging, however-- that grocer found the wheels of his wagon stolen and replaced with shabby old ones, along with a message in chalk that read: "Fair Exchange is No Robbery." Counterbalancing the acts of greed were acts of kindness, as bakeries around the city remained open through the night, expanding their output, and giving away goods to people in need.

This section presents stories about how the Blizzard of 1888 affected New Yorkers who were trying to go about their everyday business. Much of the popular memory of the blizzard evolved out of these stories, and out of the general sense they gave of the tremendous impact the storm had on people's lives. But the popular memory of the blizzard has grown beyond the sum of the parts of these stories, and sometimes in popular recollections of the storm truth is obscured by fiction, reality obscured by memory's attraction to the dramatic. The legend of the Blizzard of 1888 emerged not long after the snow stopped falling. For decades after the event, the storm’s anniversary spawned commemorative articles in newspapers and magazines. Such press attention fostered exaggerations and misconceptions about the actual event, escalating the sense of the blizzard's impact.

The blizzard did paralyze city life and cause tremendous damage and suffering, but much of the memory of the blizzard has tended to label it as the sole impetus behind many of the city's physical transformations. As this exhibit has shown, the blizzard was more a clarifying event than a transformative one. The blizzard did not lead directly to the burying of overhead wires or to the subway, nor did it revolutionize sanitation in the city-- all of these initiatives were on the civic platter well before March 12, 1888, and were not begun in earnest until the mid-1890s. The blizzard was but one in a series of events that helped city planners, workers, politicians, and businessmen realize the path to a more efficient, cleaner, and more modern city.

It is instructive that popular memory tends to collapse causation onto the most dramatic events of an era, and that the Blizzard of 1888 acts as an easy magnet for memories big and small, true and untrue. The disconnection between some of the stories that emerged from the blizzard and some of the memories that evolved in subsequent years exemplifies this phenomenon, which itself is a function of emotions that often emerge in the wake of disasters and that impact the way disasters are remembered. For instance, individuals' desires for the authenticity of having "been there," for possessing a unique (even if untrue) take on events, and the sense that shared participation in an event bolsters community all shape the way people remember dramatic occurrences.

For decades, the Blizzard of 1888 stuck out in New York City's collective memory as the worst storm in the city's history. The storm was truly severe and caused much hardship for the city's residents. Recollection of its severity, however, evolves not only from the intense snowfall and blinding winds, but also from the city's complete lack of preparedness for such an event, its struggle to recover, and the fact that the blizzard struck as the city was transforming and vulnerable. Future storms were as severe, and also paralyzed the city, but they did not provoke nearly as much documentation and commentary, were not pointed to as revolutionary events, and did not leave such a mark on the city's memory. The Blizzard of 1888 illustrates how disasters, natural and man made, are remembered both for the destruction they cause and in light of the particular historical moments in which they occur.

[pazzo83]

i dont think anyone was a winter weather lover in the 1830's...with the lack of indoor plumbing, heating, electricity...

Indoor plumbing has existed for nearly 4000 years.

[Cfa]

It'd better not reach 100 inches lol. I say no more than 50 which is still a lot. December's snowfall hasn't even melted all the way yet, smh.

[A-L-E-X]

Indoor plumbing has existed for nearly 4000 years.

I believe the use of lead in indoor plumbing by the Romans is used as the reason they went quite mad.

[psv88]

Indoor plumbing has existed for nearly 4000 years.

not so sure about that. It was non-existent/rare...

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Was_there_indoor_plumbing_in_the_us_in_1830

Completed in 1842, the Croton Aqueduct System transported water from a huge reservoir in Croton, 40 miles north of the city, to a secondary reservoir on 42nd Street, and to another in Central Park. They fed into a network of underground mains. Now it was possible to supply buildings with running water. However, except for a simple water carriage operation, there was no provision for waste water.

http://www.theplumber.com/usa.html

[pazzo83]

not so sure about that. It was non-existent/rare...

http://wiki.answers...._the_us_in_1830

Completed in 1842, the Croton Aqueduct System transported water from a huge reservoir in Croton, 40 miles north of the city, to a secondary reservoir on 42nd Street, and to another in Central Park. They fed into a network of underground mains. Now it was possible to supply buildings with running water. However, except for a simple water carriage operation, there was no provision for waste water.

http://www.theplumber.com/usa.html

Evidence of indoor plumbing dating to 1500 BC was found on Crete.

[psv88]

Evidence of indoor plumbing dating to 1500 BC was found on Crete.

dude...these are all warm places...where pipes wouldnt freeze...and indoor plumbing meaning indoor bathtubs...so water flowing in a trench to fill up a tub...not quite enough to survive a winter with 100 inches of snow...

[pazzo83]

dude...these are all warm places...where pipes wouldnt freeze...and indoor plumbing meaning indoor bathtubs...so water flowing in a trench to fill up a tub...not quite enough to survive a winter with 100 inches of snow...

You know what the climate was like in Crete in 1500 BC?

[psv88]

You know what the climate was like in Crete in 1500 BC?

yup.

The temperate climate of Crete with its short, mild winters and its dry, warm summers, along with the fertility of the Cretan plains produces sufficient food supplies to support an affluent local population, and for exports. The inhabitants of ancient Crete --whom we call Minoans-- produced a decentralized culture based on the abundance of the land's natural resources, and on intense commercial activity. While the island appears today completely deforested, in ancient times timber was one of the natural resources that was commercially exploited and exported to nearby Egypt, Syria, Cyprus, the Aegean Islands and the Greek mainland.

http://www.ancient-greece.org/history/minoan.html

[donsutherland1]

Was 95-96 the highest on record?

Modern record, yes. Earlier accounts suggest that Winter 1867-68 had close to 90" in NYC and Winter 1804-05 (a moderate/strong La Niña!) had around or just above 80".

[A-L-E-X]

yup.

The temperate climate of Crete with its short, mild winters and its dry, warm summers, along with the fertility of the Cretan plains produces sufficient food supplies to support an affluent local population, and for exports. The inhabitants of ancient Crete --whom we call Minoans-- produced a decentralized culture based on the abundance of the land's natural resources, and on intense commercial activity. While the island appears today completely deforested, in ancient times timber was one of the natural resources that was commercially exploited and exported to nearby Egypt, Syria, Cyprus, the Aegean Islands and the Greek mainland.

http://www.ancient-g...ory/minoan.html

Sounds like a heavenly place and time to live there. However, I believe King Minos was from Crete from around that time period. Some of the atrocities attributed to him were likely true.

[A-L-E-X]

Modern record, yes. Earlier accounts suggest that Winter 1867-68 had close to 90" in NYC and Winter 1804-05 (a moderate/strong La Niña!) had around or just above 80".

Don, I've heard references to the winters of 1835-36 and 1837-38 being particularly snowy too! Is there a site to get some of these old time snowfall records?

I've also been interested in our biggest snowstorms and I read that there was one back in Jan 1857 that occurred with temps below 0! It would be great to find out if any snowstorms from that era eclipsed our current ones.

[Jefflaw77]

NYC almost certainly won't reach 100".

To date (including today's snowfall), NYC's seasonal snowfall is 36.1" That means NYC needs another 63.9" to reach 100".

The record February-April snowfall total is 41.9" (1915-16). If NYC matched that record, its seasonal snowfall would still be short by 22.0". Hence, NYC would need next week's storm to dump nearly two feet of snow and then it would need to match the February-April snowfall record.

The voice of reason has spoke... - As Don stated- there is little or no chance of NYC reaching 100" - I voted for 60-70" - which would still be ridiculous.. If next week storm comes through with 15"+ in NYC- we'd still need at least 2 more MAJOR storms....

Lets not get ahead of ourselves.. The bottom line is that this winter, so far has been amazing!

jeff

[Stormlover74]

Maybe instead of NYC we open it up to 30 mile radius. In that case I think your chances increase greatly since some locations in CT/NJ area already approaching 45-50"

[A-L-E-X]

Its too bad NYC didnt start measuring snow until the 1870s, or else that 1868-69 winter might have held our record.

[A-L-E-X]

Maybe instead of NYC we open it up to 30 mile radius. In that case I think your chances increase greatly since some locations in CT/NJ area already approaching 45-50"

Upton out on Long Island got to 90.9" in 1995-96-- quite close to 100"!

[donsutherland1]

Don, I've heard references to the winters of 1835-36 and 1837-38 being particularly snowy too! Is there a site to get some of these old time snowfall records?

I've also been interested in our biggest snowstorms and I read that there was one back in Jan 1857 that occurred with temps below 0! It would be great to find out if any snowstorms from that era eclipsed our current ones.

David Ludlum's Early American Winters books have some information, but concrete data for stations is sparse.

FWIW, I compiled all my notes on major 19th century snowstorms and posted them here: http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1oj1e/NotableEasternUSSnow/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yudu.com%2Fitem%2Fdetails%2F194534%2FNotable-Eastern-U.S.-Snowstorms-of-the-19th-Century

The January 1857 blizzard is included.