Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z EC a good hit in the exact places we've seen all year- new england and Andy's area in the lower HV and CD. amounts down there are >0.5-1.25 inches as you head SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Did a look at members for KALB: 5 Glances...6 hits moderate to heavy 5 misses. Anomalies still the same @ 250 and 850 for winds though the -4 to -5 anomaly is now over ECT and SE NE. PWATS down to +1 to +2 for ENY and WNE +2 to +4 east. 06z looks a bit NW...IMO the next 3 runs of the NAM will be telling for sure along with this afternoon's SREFS too. I agree with you on the the NAM and SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why are the models jittery with this week's system? You need look no further than the Pacific Jet Stream which is very active. It has quite a few short wave disturbances in the pipe. Also the Current LL marine baroclinic zone is giving the models feedback issues. in such a pattern the models always have a difficult time sorting things out. Andy and I were discussing the 1979 PD storm yesterday. and how it had a lot of similarities with this storm....The models had problems with that storm for the same reason. Lance Bosart wrote a paper on that storm that makes for interesting reading. I don't have a link to the paper. But, the title is "The Presidents' Day Snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: A Subsynoptic-Scale Event" So even though the models today are vastly superior to those early models; Sometimes under the hood their not that different; so, they can still suffer with some of the same problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 with the nao relaxing and less confluence to the northeast this still could come west yet. I hope the EC can start to clarify things soon. it would have been nice to see the 00z GFS ensembles comes west more but theres still time. GFS 12z a tick north perhaps.... today's 18, 00 and perhaps 06z will tell the tale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why are the models jittery with this week's system. You need look no further than the Pacific Jet Stream which is very active. It has quite a few short wave disturbances in the pipe. Also the Current LL marine baroclinic zone is giving the models feedback issues. in such a pattern the models always have difficult time sorting things out. Andy and I were discussing the 1979 PD storm yesterday. and how it had a lot of similarities with this storm....The models had problems with that storm for the same reason. Lance Bosart wrote a paper on that storm that makes for interesting reading. I don't have a link to the paper. But, the title is "The Presidents' Day Snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: A Subsynoptic-Scale Event" So even though the models today are vastly superior to those early models; Some times under the hood their not that different; so, they can still suffer with some of the same problems. Excellent post and an excellent paper that you referred too. I saw Lance do a presentation on that storm at an LSC Storm Conference around/in early 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z UK vs its 00z run is farther north still SSE of the 40/70 BM but MUCH farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z UK vs its 00z run is farther north still SSE of the 40/70 BM but MUCH farther north. Now the major problem with this system is having enough cold air for this to be a snow event. IF the system comes back to the west, I do not think the vast majority of us have a problem staying all snow, but I do have concerns for coastal sections. This would be a HUGE storm if the high pressure system held it's ground rather than retreating due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z Canadian made a big push east and the 12z run has completed the trend by coming into general alignment with the ECM / GFS and a more offshore track sparing most of Upstate anything more than flurries. Still time, but would appear to me as though a model consensus is beginning to build and the odds of a widespread snow event for Upstate (Outside of perhaps E NY) are beginning to wane this Afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z Canadian made a big push east and the 12z run has completed the trend by coming into general alignment with the ECM / GFS and a more offshore track sparing most of Upstate anything more than flurries. Still time, but would appear to me as though a model consensus is beginning to build and the odds of a widespread snow event for Upstate (Outside of perhaps E NY) are beginning to wane this Afternoon... That surface isoabric configuration has a "shadowy" look to it too for ENY and the HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro just came in SE of the 0z run. Put a fork it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if it trends a bit more NW before all is said and done. SNE looks to get buried again regardless. I think ALB has a shot at the snowiest Jan. or record still (not far off at the moment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 euro really couldnt be anymore of a carbon copy of every single previous storm this winter. this 12z run is cut and paste with qpf. new england, lower HV and CD......basically the exact same distribution as all the previous events....uncanny the previous runs had a bit of a bulge towards the eastern southern tier, but that now is gone.... BGM now out of the qpf.....so long bye bye. same as usual...incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can see where this could trend northwest enough for the usual moderate event in ALB with a screwing west of the CD and a jackpot over near the NE border. Uncanny how this is where every single event sets up so far. I'll need to get psyched for my usual 4 inches while ALB gets 7", Chatham gets11" and PSF gets 15" LOL ...or something along those lines....... This one pisses me off a bit more because it has so much juice being as Miller A....shame to waste it. Euro just came in SE of the 0z run. Put a fork it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can see where this could trend northwest enough for the usual moderate event in ALB with a screwing west of the CD and a jackpot over near the NE border. Uncanny how this is where every single event sets up so far. I'll need to get psyched for my usual 4 inches while ALB gets 7", Chatham gets11" and PSF gets 15" LOL ...or something along those lines....... This one pisses me off a bit more because it has so much juice being as Miller A....shame to waste it. lol this one might be even less than than previous storm if we dont get that NW trend in the next couple runs. It is very annoying when every single storm takes almost the exact same track just enough to brush us or delivery a moderate storm.. just give me a coastal hugger already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And I'm not interested in fluff factor (high ratios) anymore. That's just a cheap way of looking like it was a respectable storm. Example....we get .5" qpf and 9 inches of snow, while Worcester gets 1.5" qpf and 18" of snow. It looks like we did half as well...but we did not. Our 9 inches sublimates and blows away and you ask where it went in a few days. They are OK events, but unrewarding at this point. lol this one might be even less than than previous storm if we dont get that NW trend in the next couple runs. It is very annoying when every single storm takes almost the exact same track just enough to brush us or delivery a moderate storm.. just give me a coastal hugger already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And I'm not interested in fluff factor (high ratios) anymore. That's just a cheap way of looking like it was a respectable storm. Example....we get .5" qpf and 9 inches of snow, while Worcester gets 1.5" qpf and 18" of snow. It looks like we did half as well...but we did not. Our 9 inches sublimates and blows away and you ask where it went in a few days. They are OK events, but unrewarding at this point. seriously, we all have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And I'm not interested in fluff factor (high ratios) anymore. That's just a cheap way of looking like it was a respectable storm. Example....we get .5" qpf and 9 inches of snow, while Worcester gets 1.5" qpf and 18" of snow. It looks like we did half as well...but we did not. Our 9 inches sublimates and blows away and you ask where it went in a few days. They are OK events, but unrewarding at this point. LOL We need a nice moist 1.5 inch qpf snow event with 10:1 ratios so everything gets plastered!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey I'll take it, but I have always felt that way. LES is also generally "cheap snow". I measure my storms not just by how much I can log into my book for a snowfall obs, but the quality of what is really on the ground. Maybe I'm more sensitive to it because we are an extremely windy area and very high ratio snow blows away faster than you can blink an eye. seriously, we all have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey I'll take it, but I have always felt that way. LES is also generally "cheap snow". I measure my storms not just by how much I can log into my book for a snowfall obs, but the quality of what is really on the ground. Maybe I'm more sensitive to it because we are an extremely windy area and very high ratio snow blows away faster than you can blink an eye. yeah im just giving you a hardtime.....i know you're property is susceptible to a lot of snow blowing away it was pretty funny though the way you worded it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well lets hope some NW trend develops anyway I'm at a Mc Donalds in Kingston, NY killing time before a meeting that I have.... Gotta go....... yeah im just giving you a hardtime.....i know you're property is susceptible to a lot of snow blowing away it was pretty funny though the way you worded it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Time to bail on this storm...my apologies to the GFS...it finally got one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The setup for this system is very different than all the other's we've experienced this past winter so you can't rely on the NW trend of past storms to occur with this one. It's just dumb luck that it happens to be taking a similiar track though the northeast to plaster SNE once again. I think things can just as easily move further SE as they can further NE. It's time to start looking for our next threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The beauty of the state of modeling this winter is ...none of us will really now for sure until maybe the 12z runs tomorrow. Later..... The setup for this system is very different than all the other's we've experienced this past winter so you can't rely on the NW trend of past storms to occur with this one. It's just dumb luck that it happens to be taking a similiar track though the northeast to plaster SNE once again. I think things can just as easily move further SE as they can further NE. It's time to start looking for our next threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the 18z nam is still out to sea and might only scrape the SNE. The nam is either handling this system horribly or is picking up something important with its higher resolution.. Actually at H5 it definitely looks better but still not enough for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hype hype hype way too much hype reading the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Albany snowtotal map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And I'm not interested in fluff factor (high ratios) anymore. That's just a cheap way of looking like it was a respectable storm. Example....we get .5" qpf and 9 inches of snow, while Worcester gets 1.5" qpf and 18" of snow. It looks like we did half as well...but we did not. Our 9 inches sublimates and blows away and you ask where it went in a few days. They are OK events, but unrewarding at this point. Hey, all I know is I went in the yard yesterday to take down a big icicle and had to trudge through knee high snow with the ladder to get there. I'm not complaining since last month at this time I was barely hanging on for a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed - it is nice it finally looks like winter It's gotten pretty quiet here this afternoon, considering the clipper tonight and ? Weds / Thurs. Given the models fluctuations will be fun to see how it all unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS and NAM are quite a bit similar...except the GFS is a little closer to the coast and more on the wet side. EURO and UKMET have the system phasing. The major problem is that they show a warm solution. let's hope the kicker doesn't move the system OTS too quick. But that is a possibility because the shortwave has gotten a little stronger during the last few runs. if the storm exits a little further south Upstate New York will end up getting next to nothing (not that we will be getting that much in the first place) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just no give in the NAM or GFS for this event with regard to Upstate. Of note, the Tuesday 12z runs of the American models will have the added benefit of NOAA reconnaissance data being ingested into them, but will it make a difference? I don't know. But if there is any reasonable shift to the west with the remaining 0z guidance Tonight, it could add some intrigue to the 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.