Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the problem is still the kicker to the north of the lakes even though the storm looks great, it could easily get booted east by that piece again its all conjecture, that piece doesnt get onshore till 6z monday morning, depending on its amplitude and other parameters, will determine where this storm goes....although of course the models have a decent handle on it now, it will of course get better. for areas further N and W, it was encouraging to see the NAM cut off the low in the deep south, we need it to cut off south and west, otherwise this will just get booted out.......and then hope for that piece of energy in the north to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Things to keep an eye on are: the High Pressure to our north and how long it stays in place and the Ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Things to keep an eye on are: the High Pressure to our north and how long it stays in place and the Ridge out west. what are your current thoughts? Organizing Low thinks it will be a miss for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what are your current thoughts? Organizing Low thinks it will be a miss for Ottawa. at this time its a pretty volatile setup we are seeing huge run to run changes that in of itself opens the door for at least a chance, though that chance is slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thiss 00z GFS solution sort of reminds me of one of those MA storms of last year where we just supplied the cold air for them. Amped storm down south, but gets shunted out to just outside the New England BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 what are your current thoughts? Organizing Low thinks it will be a miss for Ottawa. Actually I have been reading that there seem to be more and more people thinking this is either out to sea or a non event for a lot of upstate NY too. It would figure to be a fairy tale storm the one time in this decent winter we stand to get the jackpot accumulation. I guess if Andy and others throw in the towel, then I will too. I just took the plow off today and may bring it in for service ESP if this ends up fish food. I just hope Andy is still on track with this setting up the highway track he has been thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thiss 00z GFS solution sort of reminds me of one of those MA storms of last year where we just supplied the cold air for them. Amped storm down south, but gets shunted out to just outside the New England BM. We need to remove this guy from the NY/PA border. "You Shall Not Pass!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 One thing we can take from the 0Z runs....that southern stream vort is very potent. Of course that is a plus. It is begging to be picked up by the northern stream if things can line up right. But as others said...it could still get booted out and all that pretty qpf in PA may reach a northern ceiling. Remember the NAM gets that well up int PA via an extremely amped southern vort.....maybe overkill. So it still will come down to phasing (if/where) for most of Upstate NY. Thiss 00z GFS solution sort of reminds me of one of those MA storms of last year where we just supplied the cold air for them. Amped storm down south, but gets shunted out to just outside the New England BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually I have been reading that there seem to be more and more people thinking this is either out to sea or a non event for a lot of upstate NY too. It would figure to be a fairy tale storm the one time in this decent winter we stand to get the jackpot accumulation. I guess if Andy and others throw in the towel, then I will too. I just took the plow off today and may bring it in for service ESP if this ends up fish food. I just hope Andy is still on track with this setting up the highway track he has been thinking of. well, there's always Bastardi's first week of February threat. Remember...the air pattern looks similar to March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z GEFS Mean is still west of the OP, which is good. Probably another High-end Advisory / Low-end warning for atleast the BGM / ALY cwa's verbatim... Relevent 24-hour QPF for our region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 what are your current thoughts? Organizing Low thinks it will be a miss for Ottawa. [/quote Below is 00Z GFS, note where it is over the GOM this is a prime location for a classic big snowstorm Below You can see that the GFS has shifted a little more to west on this run This system will start to bomb out off the Carolina coast and it will have a huge precipitation shield. The European and Canadian are trending west with this system. The NAM is out of range until tomorrow; but right now it looks like it will trend to the west as well; we will see what it says Sunday when it's in range. I think the models will keep shifting to the west the closer we get to Midweek ...The big question is how far. We also have to keep an eye on that double barrel high to our north and northeast and see how long it holds position. It is too early to say where this is going. We are all going to have to be patient for a little while longer. But the teleconnections are looking good for a major NEUS cyclonegesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll say one thing... the qpf distribution on the 0Z CMC is eerily similar to the previous NOreaster. Just far enough west to get a significant event to the HV, but big event as soon as you get into NE. Course the CMC at 4 days is no great thing so we'll see.... I guess I should be happy with the consistent moderate snows this winter and nice snowpack, but I'm getting a litte tired of watching places 50 miles east get three times as much snow from every storm. I don't begrudge them their snow...but it just gets frustrating. Ok...pretty good model consensus building...12Z EC, 00Z GFS&CMC indicating another coastal that's basically a miss for most of CNY or fringe effects at best. BGM & ALB look to be on western edge. In other words, take almost any east coast storm the past two years...rinse & repeat. Back to LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll say one thing... the qpf distribution on the 0Z CMC is eerily similar to the previous NOreaster. Just far enough west to get a significant event to the HV, but big event as soon as you get into NE. Course the CMC at 4 days is no great thing so we'll see.... I guess I should be happy with the consistent moderate snows this winter and nice snowpack, but I'm getting a litte tired of watching places 50 miles east get three times as much snow from every storm. I don't begrudge them their snow...but it just gets frustrating. I hear you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll say one thing... the qpf distribution on the 0Z CMC is eerily similar to the previous NOreaster. Just far enough west to get a significant event to the HV, but big event as soon as you get into NE. Course the CMC at 4 days is no great thing so we'll see.... I guess I should be happy with the consistent moderate snows this winter and nice snowpack, but I'm getting a litte tired of watching places 50 miles east get three times as much snow from every storm. I don't begrudge them their snow...but it just gets frustrating. On a positive note the "seasonal trend" on the models has been to shift west in the 48-72 hour range so with any luck that will put us in the more significant snows. I'm definitely not complaining with the 15" snowpack here either but it would be nice to get 12"+ in a storm. 00z EC came west enough to give us 3-6" lets just push that another 50 to 75 miles west and we're in better shape here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Someone told me on the SNE side that the ECMWF gets 1" to around ALB, but I don't get the qpf maps until like 3 AM so can't corroborate it. On a positive note the "seasonal trend" on the models has been to shift west in the 48-72 hour range so with any luck that will put us in the more significant snows. I'm definitely not complaining with the 15" snowpack here either but it would be nice to get 12"+ in a storm. 00z EC came west enough to give us 3-6" lets just push that another 50 to 75 miles west and we're in better shape here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Someone told me on the SNE side that the ECMWF gets 1" to around ALB, but I don't get the qpf maps until like 3 AM so can't corroborate it. It actually looks more like .5 to .75 with a heck of a tight gradient so maybe a bit more than 3-6". Like you mentioned it's very similar to the last nor'easter.. I actually can't believe how every storm has had nearly the exact same precip cutoff just west of ALB with a track inside 40/70. Anyways there is still room to nudge west..or east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just went thru the members of the 0z GFS Ensemble package, and there are atleast 4 members that track the LP inside the coastline as far north as NJ and drop 1-2 feet across a large chunk of Upstate NY. Definately still need to watch this one closely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm honestly almost ready to throw in the towel for this winter with regard to snow. i know it's only mid winter, but still. The storm seems to have set up and become entrenched. I'm just happy that we've got a decent snowpack and cold temperatures, meaning the winter festivals should be okay this year. I'm also about ready to give up as well.. Yesterday TWN was showing 6 to 10 inches for Montreal.. Today? Zippo! It's frustrating.. At this point, I'm starting to count down the days until I can start playing golf again.. Good times.. Good times.. Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AS Tornado Girl has stated....wait a bit longer. The seasonal trend (W-NW) is our friend. I still think we will see a beast of a low taking a track W and NW of the New England BM Once again the trend on the GEFS anomaly data is trending towards > than normal pwats (+2 to +4), 250 winds -2 SD and the strongest 850 wind anomalies that I have seen for this event. Maps for above data are posted.. This is from the 06z GEFS and this is now 2 consecutive runs of the GEFS that show these anomalies and the trend is for them to be rather significant. This storm like so many others is analogous to playing poker..know when to hold know when to fold...for E-CNY and ENY eastward hold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I told you not to fold...... Yet. I just hope it can get set up for the upper Hudson Valley to get in on it this time. The trend is our friend.Gotta get some banding going up here, we have some solid cold already here now. My truck was reading 5 when I drove in this morning with a dusting of snow on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I told you not to fold...... Yet. I just hope it can get set up for the upper Hudson Valley to get in on it this time. The trend is our friend.Gotta get some banding going up here, we have some solid cold already here now. My truck was reading 5 when I drove in this morning with a dusting of snow on the roads. Just to clarify...All I am saying is that it is WAY TOO EARLY to give up on this storm. It still may miss us or have gradiated effects on ENY with more snow SE-S of the Upper HV then again maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 AS Tornado Girl has stated....wait a bit longer. The seasonal trend (W-NW) is our friend. I still think we will see a beast of a low taking a track W and NW of the New England BM Once again the trend on the GEFS anomaly data is trending towards > than normal pwats (+2 to +4), 250 winds -2 SD and the strongest 850 wind anomalies that I have seen for this event. Maps for above data are posted.. This is from the 06z GEFS and this is now 2 consecutive runs of the GEFS that show these anomalies and the trend is for them to be rather significant. This storm like so many others is analogous to playing poker..know when to hold know when to fold...for E-CNY and ENY eastward hold.... I've been watching the GEFS for over 36 hours and I agree....this W and N trend will continue for awhile longer....think snow, this is going to be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temp is -7 here at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've been watching the GEFS for over 36 hours and I agree....this W and N trend will continue for awhile longer....think snow, this is going to be huge Now, that's what I am talking about!!! Like the optimism. Hopefully, 12z comes around a bit and gets people fired up. We are long overdue for some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temp is -7 here at my house good luck with the cold tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Made it down to -4.7F around 3AM then temps came up a bit as clouds rolled in and we got a dusting of snow. Looks rather wintry outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 good luck with the cold tonight Thanks...it's going to be super cold that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Now, that's what I am talking about!!! Like the optimism. Hopefully, 12z comes around a bit and gets people fired up. We are long overdue for some love. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just went thru the members of the 0z GFS Ensemble package, and there are atleast 4 members that track the LP inside the coastline as far north as NJ and drop 1-2 feet across a large chunk of Upstate NY. Definately still need to watch this one closely... this is definitely the most intriguing piece of news from last night....as i catch up....and at least the news for me to keep paying attention unforutaltely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good pts made here. If we get a slp track inside the BM w/ the system as anomalous as the ens means indicate, there should be more impact to interior ny/pa, than in previous systems. Actually, unless this ends up moving close to the BM, coastal areas up to BOS are going to have major p-type issues. edit: one other item, look at he 12Z NAM that is rolling out now...thru 72hrs the 500mb trough is neg tilt much sooner than GFS, which would support a more coastal track - than offshore...whether its right or not is another question. edit: comparing 12Z NAM to 00Z GFS I actually don't think what I said is true. 00z GFS actually closes off at H500 sooner. The bottom line to me is that this is a single stream system through our latitude and will be quite progressive. 12Z NAM shows a precip shield that will ultimately be way more restricted than some of the global models were recently showing (for the interior NE and ONT). Too early to completely throw in the towel but this is looking very similar (from a real wx standpoint) to what we've been seeing a lot of. NAM thermal profiles will leave a lot of disappointment close to the coast though. Big hit for Western NC and probably mts of VA. BGM to ALB are still in play though best chances for significant snow are east (and south towards western VA/NC) at this juncture. i see the single stream as no good for us further N and W. the western sides gets smushed by the westerles if this is a pure souther stream.....which is the case at this time. even if so, Wx4Cast (Andy's area) is absolutely 100% not out of this......new england, the lower HV and CD are all under the gun. but that is nothing new this year. the rest of us, we need the northern stream to help us out..... which its not doing at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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