Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z Canadian is still west just a bit. The fact that the 540 thickness line makes it up to ~I-90 but the 850 0c line remains south of everybody could imply sleet mixing in for parts of the area verbatim, but no sense in getting too technical just yet. Overall, still a big storm for many of us... If it takes a track like this as forecast sleet will be a big issue. Even a deep storm a la the EC's prior runs and track would IMO and experience present a sleet issue up towards the lower & mid Hudson Valley, Albany as well as across a good part of W Mass and SVT. Verbatim from just east of I-81(SYR) to Lake George and SSW to Schenctady and Catskills plus E'rn S'rn Tier of NY would jackpot HUGE on this storm. Probably would think and/or look for a superband of convective type snow across W'rn 'DAcks to W'rn Catskills (Delware county) may extend a bit farther east on N'rn end to possibly NW Saratoga and W'rn Warren counties. Again as far as the "band" setup this is just purely a guess on my part but is based on past experience where snowbands have formed in past storms based on distance away from the actual center of LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The comparison at hour 84 between the Nam and the GFS speaks volumes. Nam has the storm in western Georgia, while the GFS has the storm off the South Carolina coast.. At least the GFS has re-joined the party. Now it is time for the model to sober up and get with the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like buffalo is too far west on this storm lol I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet on this one. Even if you are on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield, don't forget that NE winds coming across Lake Ontario could enhance the snowfall, which would give you low end warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just to mess with us, the 12Z Euro is way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 total precip for this entire subforum on the 12z euro: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 total precip for this entire subforum on the 12z euro: 0.0 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet on this one. Even if you are on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield, don't forget that NE winds coming across Lake Ontario could enhance the snowfall, which would give you low end warning criteria. never knew we could get enhancement off NE winds,i thought we needed more of northerly winds to get some LES off Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 total precip for this entire subforum on the 12z euro: 0.0 Wasn't that Bluto Blutarskey's GPA on Animal House? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now I see where you hangout. lol Lot o' snow here. Am I crazy for thinking this could be a major thump from the CD/Berks up through the Greens/NNE Juicy. Welcome to the "bright" side! :-) It could go both ways for you and the CD if the low tucks closer to NYC or cuts-across LI then sleet could be an issue for the Berks west to Albany along with a dry-slot. Even a large deep storm tracking from let's say the tip of th Delmarva to the CC Canal could throw some warmer air aloft back towards the Berks allowing for a mix of IP with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 True.....Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's book on Northeast snowstorms showed that a strong artic high is a major key in all the historical snowfalls....(Thanks for the book by the way)...I just hope it doesn't move out of the way to fast. I still think this will be a LD event; near 24 hours if not 36hours in duration. Part of the duration will be due to the precip shield of the storm being more expansive than normal. Again the low will be down over the SEUS and the leading edge of it's precip will extend all the way up to NYS and New England. Also as the low deepens and the U/A feature cuts-off it will slow some as well. You're welcome for the book. Glad you're putting it to good use! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Tornado Girl, et al. I also remember from my days as a marine met & shiprouter a veteran forecaster keyed me in on arctic or polar highs that move off the New England or NY/NJ coast having an inverted trough form within the "SW flank" of the high. The combination of the CAD down along but inland of the coast combined with ageostrophic SE-E flow from off the AO to the coast leads to the development of the trough. In addition the central pressure (CP) of the high is key to whether or not said trough development occur. CP: < or = 1024mb very low prob for trough to form CP : >1025mb to 1030 mb slight probability for trough to form CP: 1030mbs to 1035 mbs moderate probability for trough to form CP: 1036 mbs or > high probability for trough to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Tornado Girl, et al. I also remember from my days as a marine met & shiprouter a veteran forecaster keyed me in on arctic or polar highs that move off the New England or NY/NJ coast having an inverted trough form within the "SW flank" of the high. The combination of the CAD down along but inland of the coast combined with ageostrophic SE-E flow from off the AO to the coast leads to the development of the trough. In addition the central pressure (CP) of the high is key to whether or not said trough development occur. CP: < or = 1024mb very low prob for trough to form CP : >1025mb to 1030 mb slight probability for trough to form CP: 1030mbs to 1035 mbs moderate probability for trough to form CP: 1036 mbs or > high probability for trough to form very interesting will keep an eye on this safe to say you are not buying the GFS/euro OTS for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any thoughts on the 12z Euro's flip to the dark side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any thoughts on the 12z Euro's flip to the dark side? basuically has a northern stream kicker over the northern lakes.....GFS has it too....thus storm gets shoved OTS further west solution bring that kicker west of the great lakes giving the storm room to come north northern stream energy is notoriuously mishandled, so i think we will have to wait a bit more to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 very interesting will keep an eye on this safe to say you are not buying the GFS/euro OTS for now at the moment no. So far GEFS mean is quite west of the OP run with more members west of the OP. ECEN & OP while somewhat OTS too are both showing a very large storm. There will be an awful lot of moisture influx N and NW. It will be a prolific precip producer. As noted earlier anomaly data is trending towards a significant QP event and also a fairly Long Duration event as well. A few additional thoughts: 1) Seasonal "climo" with the models has been for them to trend more NW as the event nears. 2) EC has been far from the beast of a model this year. It has had some hiccup run or runs in a row even on some prior storms that it was the first to pick up on. IIRC it had a run prior to the Boxing Day storm that was not good for a significant storm. 3) Than NAM has been very good on point #1 this year especially since the New Year. We're not in NAM time at the moment. 4) SREF PMSL and QP has been good too as of late (beginning of the new year) esp within 36hrs or less of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A little off topic from this storm, but it seems the NAM for a few runs now wants to give parts of upstate ny a nice little event..Not sure if any other models show this..For the mon and tue time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Watching the 18Z GFS come in is like watching paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nws going with the jma OUR CURRENT FORECAST WILL STAY THECOURSE WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS STORM DESPITE THE DEVIATION MORE OUT TO SEA /OR WIDE RIGHT/ WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MEAN...00Z ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND EVEN THE LATEST JAPANESE MODEL /JMA/ OUTPUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's not something that you hear every day Nws going with the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hopefully the paint dries to a nice smooth finish of beautiful white......just one coat needed.......a 2ft. thick coat.....of beautiful white paint. Watching the 18Z GFS come in is like watching paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18Z GFS is in through 60 and it looks better, maybe not enough for a big hit yet, but better. More ridging out in front...high out in Atlantic seems to be slipping SE more....bit more digging.....let's watch that paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs is ots again, atleast it also shows a little lake enhancement with that clipper on mon/tue lol That might turn out to be our main threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Quickly perused GEFS 12Z anomaly data..backed off on 850 winds still though around -2 SD, -1 now on 250 wind anomalies; pwats also down some. As for LP tracks (various ensemble memebers more scatter about the mean LP. A few more members well west of the mean and a few more OTS. Interesting to note some members near and west of mean appear to be significantly deeper than the operational GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 basuically has a northern stream kicker over the northern lakes.....GFS has it too....thus storm gets shoved OTS further west solution bring that kicker west of the great lakes giving the storm room to come north northern stream energy is notoriuously mishandled, so i think we will have to wait a bit more to see how it plays out. Another miss for us most likely. It just does not want to snow in Ottawa this year. How many times has EC and the TWN called for snow four days out only to have it change to periods of snow, then flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Another miss for us most likely. It just does not want to snow in Ottawa this year. How many times has EC and the TWN called for snow four days out only to have it change to periods of snow, then flurries? most likely it will be a miss yes odds havent really changed <5% at >2 inches for ottawa IMO. there may be a clipper around monday or tuesday that may deliver some light accumaltions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Certainly looks like this storm threat is in trouble. Powerul southern vort yes, but we are too for north for that to be "money in the bank" as some like to say. That alone will only get decent qpf up to maybe NJ. 80% of time these southern systems pass under us and they only affect us if the phase is right. So flip a coin.... it could work out (essentially luck in the timing of short waves) or maybe the GFS and ECMWF and starting to pick up on the seeds if it's demise. most likely it will be a miss yes odds havent really changed <5% at >2 inches for ottawa IMO. there may be a clipper around monday or tuesday that may deliver some light accumaltions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM sim radar hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Certainly looks like this storm threat is in trouble. Powerul southern vort yes, but we are too for north for that to be "money in the bank" as some like to say. That alone will only get decent qpf up to maybe NJ. 80% of time these southern systems pass under us and they only affect us if the phase is right. So flip a coin.... it could work out (essentially luck in the timing of short waves) or maybe the GFS and ECMWF and starting to pick up on the seeds if it's demise. I'm honestly almost ready to throw in the towel for this winter with regard to snow. i know it's only mid winter, but still. The storm seems to have set up and become entrenched. I'm just happy that we've got a decent snowpack and cold temperatures, meaning the winter festivals should be okay this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM sim radar hr 84 Just saw this and glad to see you posted it. In addition, here is the NAM at H78 with a closed 500mb low over Birmingham AL and a trough about to go negative. Too bad the NAM only runs to 84 Hours, because if this run doesn't have the signature of a snow storm for atleast the eastern 1 / 2 of Upstate past H84, I need a refresher of what one is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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