Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think you'd like the FIM and the UKMET (posted earlier). Here's the FIM: It has been doing pretty well during the past few EC storms. I don't think once has it "weenied" us into thinking we were going to be hit.....and in reality (for most of C/W NY and S. Ontario) it's been right on the mark in that department. The FIM also predicts a Steeler's loss tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's interesting and mentioned over in New England is the GFS ensemble mean is a bit more west towards their benchmark, while many of the other model ensemble means are east, again, closer to ACK or their benchmark...still may be a SNE storm yet. Anyone from Buffalo to Cape Cod, watch out Agree...EC version of this looks like a whopper. GEM / EC have been consistent the past day or two, not sure about Ukie...GFS its usual self. Its not called the GooFuS for nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The FIM also predicts a Steeler's loss tomorrow! The FIM sucks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's interesting to see the GFS sent the vorticity package (from n. stream) about 150 miles further east than most of the other suites (It brings the main piece in over the Montana/ND border, where most others drop it "down the slide" solidly into Montana. I think this situation with the differences in models will be solved rather quickly (before cyclogenisis) due to the vast differences early on. I'm leaning on the GFS to be in error at this point, but with lead times still 4 days out, certainly can hedge our bets at this time from a forecaster-to-public standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00Z GFS has gone from a Miller A to an Miller B and as you can see more or less out to sea The Canadian is still going with a Miller A and track inland. This track would give Western PA , Western, Central, and Northern NY with a lot of snow. The EURO is still in the middle. But, its solution is a lot more like the Canadian The track of this H5 Low that is supported by the ECMWF and CMC is normally a sign of a very big East Coast storm. Whereas the GFS gives the NEUS next to nothing. I think the GMS will bounce back to the west. to more closely mirror it's cousins. The reason I feel this way is the NAO is negative but it's more to the east than it has been. This allows for less upstream blocking. Therefore, the blocking being out of place will allow the storm to track more to the West. The EURO and UKMET show a negativity tilted trough by Monday . We will just have to wait most likely until Sunday and see what the Model runs show. Hopefully by then we will have an Idea how the trough will set up and a better Idea how the H5 low will track. The values in the upper right and left show the mean value The Black line in the first panel show the observed NAO Index The Red lines are the MRF ensemble members The ensemble mean forecasts of the NAO index are obtained by averaging the 11 MRF ensemble members The yellow shading shows the ensemble mean plus and minus one standard deviation among the ensemble members, while the upper and lower red lines show the range of the forecasted indices, respectively. Nice post. The full latitude nature of the trough aloft to the west moving east would tend to favor a Miller A type development. Looking at 850 hPA data from 06z GFS and where the "cold-air" injection is taking place over the Plains, cyclogenesis would be favored to the SE of this injection or over the Lower MS Valley/FL Panhandle. The 00z UK is much more east then its prior runs but still looks favorable for the NEUS. EC/ECEN continues most favorable. BTW here is some additional info on PNA and NAO interactions phase changes: Archambault Large Scale Transition Regime Changes More on Regime changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS model is a complete train wreck between hour 72 and 120 because it struggles to recognize the southern stream. An excellent example of this can be seen on this morning's 6z runs. While the GFS COMPLETELY misses the moisture that is progged to come out of the GOM, the Nam model shows it nicely at hour 84. As much as they have tried to ruin the Nam model and make it the ugly cousin of the GFS, it still outperforms it between the months of December and February. Once February hits and cold weather has nominated North America, the GFS performs much better with the storms. That is the experience I have had dealing with this model even before they called it the GFS (used to be the AVN/MRF). Anyone know where I can find the daily maps for the Euro model? Unisys weather shut down their restricted site. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS model is a complete train wreck between hour 72 and 120 because it struggles to recognize the southern stream. An excellent example of this can be seen on this morning's 6z runs. While the GFS COMPLETELY misses the moisture that is progged to come out of the GOM, the Nam model shows it nicely at hour 84. As much as they have tried to ruin the Nam model and make it the ugly cousin of the GFS, it still outperforms it between the months of December and February. Once February hits and cold weather has nominated North America, the GFS performs much better with the storms. That is the experience I have had dealing with this model even before they called it the GFS (used to be the AVN/MRF). Anyone know where I can find the daily maps for the Euro model? Unisys weather shut down their restricted site. Thanks! Right on about the GFS OPS but 06z GEFS are looking much better. It appears that a bit more than half of the ensemble members are much farther W by N of the OPS run. GEFS ensemble mean is SE of the New England BM but in my estimation not too much. Also the 850 wind anomalies are 4 standard deviations above normal from the SE-E across ENY and WNE, PWATS at 1000 mb in the +2 to +4 SD range and the 250 winds appear to be nearing the critical -2.5 anomaly for long duration potential. The 00z ECEM mean track appears very similar to the GEFS' 06z ensemble mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The FIM also predicts a Steeler's loss tomorrow! Throw it out....bad data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Right on about the GFS OPS but 06z GEFS are looking much better. It appears that a bit more than half of the ensemble members are much farther W by N of the OPS run. GEFS ensemble mean is SE of the New England BM but in my estimation not too much. Also the 850 wind anomalies are 4 standard deviations above normal from the SE-E across ENY and WNE, PWATS at 1000 mb in the +2 to +4 SD range and the 250 winds appear to be nearing the critical -2.5 anomaly for long duration potential. The 00z ECEM mean track appears very similar to the GEFS' 06z ensemble mean track. Thanks for pointing me in the right direction. What I don't understand about the GFS is that it's ensemble members outperform it. Shouldn't they make a seasonal adjustment to the model because the rumor on the street is that this model was designed for forecasting hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have only just begun to look at this storm ...busy last few days.... My initial thought is that I really want to see the models keep this as a Miller A cyclone. If they start to trend it to a Miller B then that could be the kiss of death for most of Upstate NY (though maybe the HV is still good). There has been a tendency this season for earlier model runs to hit the Miller A aspect only to give way to a northern stream dominance where the gulf (southeast USA) low pressure is allowed to escape out and cannot phase in with the developing Miller B-esque low in time for anyone west of the Hudson. The best evidence of this is the snow drought around Washington, DC while there has been above normal snowfall from PHL northeast and also from southern VA southwards. In a simplistic sense this sucker hole in between needs to be filled this time in order for the rest of Upstate NY to get dumped on. Right on about the GFS OPS but 06z GEFS are looking much better. It appears that a bit more than half of the ensemble members are much farther W by N of the OPS run. GEFS ensemble mean is SE of the New England BM but in my estimation not too much. Also the 850 wind anomalies are 4 standard deviations above normal from the SE-E across ENY and WNE, PWATS at 1000 mb in the +2 to +4 SD range and the 250 winds appear to be nearing the critical -2.5 anomaly for long duration potential. The 00z ECEM mean track appears very similar to the GEFS' 06z ensemble mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6z GFS at 500mb for 00z Wednesday... 12z GFS at 500mb for 00z Wednesday... Definately a good shift on the 12z GFS based on the above, and if you saw that 500mb depiction you might think the end result would be the coastal plain getting more than brushed. Something about being in the crosshairs of a heavy snow event on the ECM / GGEM 96-120 hours out that has me a little nervous. I mean seriously, could the situation really improve on either of those models for C NY... particularly South Central? Seems to me like the only way to go is down from here, but I hope I am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well the GFS caved with its idea of a miller B type storm it is clearly playing catchup with the other models, even by hour 72 the difference in heights are a few hundred miles between the GFS and the 12z Ukie more amplified......obviously that translates through the rest of the run. with cyclogenesis in about 3 days, the threat of a major east coast storm / possible inland type storm is a virtual lock now barring total model collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 well the GFS caved with its idea of a miller B type storm it is clearly playing catchup with the other models, even by hour 72 the difference in heights are a few hundred miles between the GFS and the 12z Ukie more amplified......obviously that translates through the rest of the run. with cyclogenesis in about 3 days, the threat of a major east coast storm / possible inland type storm is a virtual lock now barring total model collapse. This was expected...But it is nice to see it come back to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 The FIM also predicts a Steeler's loss tomorrow! I like the way you think..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This was expected...But it is nice to see it come back to the party 12z UK from 22 Jan back West perhaps a bit faster and definitely favorable for big hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice post. The full latitude nature of the trough aloft to the west moving east would tend to favor a Miller A type development. Looking at 850 hPA data from 06z GFS and where the "cold-air" injection is taking place over the Plains, cyclogenesis would be favored to the SE of this injection or over the Lower MS Valley/FL Panhandle. The 00z UK is much more east then its prior runs but still looks favorable for the NEUS. EC/ECEN continues most favorable. BTW here is some additional info on PNA and NAO interactions phase changes: Archambault Large Scale Transition Regime Changes More on Regime changes I agree, All great and valid points....I strongly feel this storm will run a little inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree, All great and valid points....I strongly feel this storm will run a little inland. Like I said in some prior posts the arctic high is going to induce an inverted trough. This trough will extend from the NC poss VA Capes SSW to the northern or central coastal waters of GA. The low will do either one of two things: form over the G of M and then move NNE to S or SW GA and then redevelop on th coast in the inverted trough) or it will move bodily out of the G of M and along the trough. In either case the low that eventually tracks along the Carolina's will tend to track west of of the coast and (NC Capes) to around the tip of the DELMARVA then NE'ward towards SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I like the way you think..... Great minds think alike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nam at 84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nam at 84hr ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Like I said in some prior posts the arctic high is going to induce an inverted trough. This trough will extend from the NC poss VA Capes SSW to the northern or central coastal waters of GA. The low will do either one of two things: form over the G of M and then move NNE to S or SW GA and then redevelop on th coast in the inverted trough) or it will move bodily out of the G of M and along the trough. In either case the low that eventually tracks along the Carolina's will tend to track west of of the coast and (NC Capes) to around the tip of the DELMARVA then NE'ward towards SE Mass. True.....Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini's book on Northeast snowstorms showed that a strong artic high is a major key in all the historical snowfalls....(Thanks for the book by the way)...I just hope it doesn't move out of the way to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Like I said in some prior posts the arctic high is going to induce an inverted trough. This trough will extend from the NC poss VA Capes SSW to the northern or central coastal waters of GA. The low will do either one of two things: form over the G of M and then move NNE to S or SW GA and then redevelop on th coast in the inverted trough) or it will move bodily out of the G of M and along the trough. In either case the low that eventually tracks along the Carolina's will tend to track west of of the coast and (NC Capes) to around the tip of the DELMARVA then NE'ward towards SE Mass. Now I see where you hangout. lol Lot o' snow here. Am I crazy for thinking this could be a major thump from the CD/Berks up through the Greens/NNE Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z Canadian is still west just a bit. The fact that the 540 thickness line makes it up to ~I-90 but the 850 0c line remains south of everybody could imply sleet mixing in for parts of the area verbatim, but no sense in getting too technical just yet. Overall, still a big storm for many of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sensei has spoken! GGEM has storm track from Baltimore to Boston with maybe some mixing issues for ENY.....big dog storm. Bet the Euro comes in again today with a GFS, GGEM compromise, closer to GGEM. 84 hour NAM looks bullish with the high scouting east a bit quicker than the GFS. Only about 16 model runs to go to nail this one down LOL! Like I said in some prior posts the arctic high is going to induce an inverted trough. This trough will extend from the NC poss VA Capes SSW to the northern or central coastal waters of GA. The low will do either one of two things: form over the G of M and then move NNE to S or SW GA and then redevelop on th coast in the inverted trough) or it will move bodily out of the G of M and along the trough. In either case the low that eventually tracks along the Carolina's will tend to track west of of the coast and (NC Capes) to around the tip of the DELMARVA then NE'ward towards SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hopefully the euro sticks to its idea form last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEMs thermal profiles are totally useless i woudlnt worry about those at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Storm track on GGEM looks sort of VD2007ish? Just not as intense of a low. Precip holds off until Wed afternoon. The slower solutions seem to be further west as the high has more chance to scoot east. Wasn't the storm 4 days away yesterday, and now it's 4 days away today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know it's silly to look at #'s at this point but I can't help asking if anyone has Euro QPF outputs for our region from last nights run. hopefully the euro sticks to its idea form last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know it's silly to look at #'s at this point but I can't help asking if anyone has Euro QPF outputs for our region from last nights run. See post #57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like buffalo is too far west on this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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