Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKMET would seemingly stick the pacifier back in your mouth!!!! : hey now! i got my 2-4 inches, im perfectly content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not that I'm aware of....But I'm sure they're (the maps) are out there somewhere... im pretty sure they do but i have to run to Costco ill post it when i get back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not that I'm aware of....But I'm sure they're (the maps) are out there somewhere... ok thanks...was just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS at 102 hr....You can see the coastal starts to develop off the North Carolina coast GFS at 120 hr...The coastal looks very good. EURO Canadian All the models are showing a monster storm.....We will see how the models handle the track after the system moves through over the weekend.....But if I had the bet...I think this is going to be the storm most of us have been looking for. Think snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, the 12Z GFS is still too far east for WNY to get in on the action...curious to see what the 12Z ECMWF does... watch buffalo gets screwed again lol,at least you're not too far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 U cant see the total qpf for the ggem on the the allan huffman site after 120hrs..But just by look i would say 1-3" of liquid for most of cny/eny.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06GGEMLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Buffalo will get screwed again! woo hoo =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah for some reason the GGEM total qpf map has been changed and now only goes out to 120 at meteocentre.....but as mentioned above, its a lot of qpf, but ptype concerns for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NWS THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORMTHAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFSMEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NWS IIRC the extended SREF for KALB were like a mean of .98 and and a max of 1.77. All but three were all snow. 2 of the 3 were rain at the start then snow. One as snow rain snow. Also ran "Penn" numbers for "poops & giggles" and they indicated 1.2" for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS at 102 hr....You can see the coastal starts to develop off the North Carolina coast GFS at 120 hr...The coastal looks very good. EURO Canadian All the models are showing a monster storm.....We will see how the models handle the track after the system moves through over the weekend.....But if I had the bet...I think this is going to be the storm most of us have been looking for. Think snow Overly optimistic here aren't we? Like the kid in a candy store or the night before Christmas waiting for Santa. ;-) Actually I think the low slides up out of the G of M to SW GA then re-develops in the inverted trough due to the incredible CAD along the EC from New England to GA! That inverted trough will act as a pathway/highway for the low to move along. Still waiting to see ensemble anomaly data come on board with anomalous 850 E and/or SE winds and PWATS too. So far they are not (though I didn't see any such data from 12z or later today). Even though they weren't doing so on the data that I did see, just based on pattern recognition with the HP over New England and the low along the ECUS there looks to be good Atlantic inflow for sure; maybe even a subtropical moisture feed from the Bahamas. Also the full-amplitude trough to the west extends to the G of M so there is some moisture transport from there too. This is going to be a juiced system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM buries just about everyone in this region: Now this I would be happy with. It likely won't happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FIM FWIW LOL It looks nice atleast .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now this I would be happy with. It likely won't happen though. I think you'd like the FIM and the UKMET (posted earlier). Here's the FIM: It has been doing pretty well during the past few EC storms. I don't think once has it "weenied" us into thinking we were going to be hit.....and in reality (for most of C/W NY and S. Ontario) it's been right on the mark in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think you'd like the FIM and the UKMET (posted earlier). Here's the FIM: It has been doing pretty well during the past few EC storms. I don't think once has it "weenied" us into thinking we were going to be hit.....and in reality (for most of C/W NY and S. Ontario) it's been right on the mark in that department. thats interesting LEK....havent followed the FIM, i thought its had a NW bias, but i must be mixing it up with other developmental projects as per your notes this season of it being quite good. good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 The models are all in agreement that the NEUS will have a major snowstorm...They just differ on the track and timing. The GFS has the fastest solution; it also looks like it wants to keep the low off the coast for a few days...I don't know if I buy into that...We don't have the blocking in place we had a few weeks ago The Canadian is very aggressive with the storm...But, it has been overly aggressive with most of these coastal of late. The EURO is playing man in the middle... Like I said this morning, we will have to wait until the Clipper system moves through this weekend and see what the models have to say then...The High will be very important, because it will determine how much blocking there will be and the amount of cold air damming if any that will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. The key word is "if" but you gotta love the possibility. Bring it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The key word is "if" but you gotta love the possibility. Bring it!!! Yes it is that dreaded but hopeful word " if".more to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIA.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. I wonder about this so called warning flag thing but I am rooting it on!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do not like that the models are delaying this storm. We went from a storm attacking a somewhat fresh, true arctic high over the NE, to a situation where the high is shifting off the coast and we are left with a progressively stale cold airmass that is gradually being eroded by a SE flow around the high. This also argues for an inland track up the coast. I still think we have a shot at the jackpot in ENY (especially N. of ALB) along with CNY, but with any further delay causing us to say congrats to Ottawa or Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do not like that the models are delaying this storm. We went from a storm attacking a somewhat fresh, true arctic high over the NE, to a situation where the high is shifting off the coast and we are left with a progressively stale cold airmass that is gradually being eroded by a SE flow around the high. This also argues for an inland track up the coast. I still think we have a shot at the jackpot in ENY (especially N. of ALB) along with CNY, but with any further delay causing us to say congrats to Ottawa or Toronto Suits me. The east coast has had its fair share this winter. Time to spread the love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0z ggem still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 00Z GFS has gone from a Miller A to an Miller B and as you can see more or less out to sea The Canadian is still going with a Miller A and track inland. This track would give Western PA , Western, Central, and Northern NY with a lot of snow. The EURO is still in the middle. But, its solution is a lot more like the Canadian The track of this H5 Low that is supported by the ECMWF and CMC is normally a sign of a very big East Coast storm. Whereas the GFS gives the NEUS next to nothing. I think the GMS will bounce back to the west. to more closely mirror it's cousins. The reason I feel this way is the NAO is negative but it's more to the east than it has been. This allows for less upstream blocking. Therefore, the blocking being out of place will allow the storm to track more to the West. The EURO and UKMET show a negativity tilted trough by Monday . We will just have to wait most likely until Sunday and see what the Model runs show. Hopefully by then we will have an Idea how the trough will set up and a better Idea how the H5 low will track. The values in the upper right and left show the mean value The Black line in the first panel show the observed NAO Index The Red lines are the MRF ensemble members The ensemble mean forecasts of the NAO index are obtained by averaging the 11 MRF ensemble members The yellow shading shows the ensemble mean plus and minus one standard deviation among the ensemble members, while the upper and lower red lines show the range of the forecasted indices, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 00z euro sticks the main deformation band right through ny state....actually dryslots SNE it appears storm is a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro with its second consecutive huge run for ny state.....and in fact everyone get in on it, even ottawa. takes a 975 low across long island and towards new brunswick...........does not veer off the coast and towards nova scotia as per usual this year! copious qpf ny gets hammered. the least is for WNY......buf about 0.3 roc approx 0.4 then amounts go way up sharply 1.75 syr southern tier from I-81 to the New england border 2.00-2.50 qpf nyc is actually about 2.75 alb around 2.00 gfl 1.75 ART approx 1.4 BTV SLK MSS 1.25-1.5 montreal 1.25-1.5 ottawa 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 00z euro sticks the main deformation band right through ny state....actually dryslots SNE it appears storm is a bomb Oh what i would do to lock this euro solution in right now. gfs seems to be on its own but who knows it may be seeing something the others aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh what i would do to lock this euro solution in right now. gfs seems to be on its own but who knows it may be seeing something the others aren't. lol yeah its a pretty sick storm hate to throw out analogs, but this is a biggie as per the 00z euro. but the models are WAAAAAAAY all over the place. we all here in this thread do deserve one storm that we can all revel in......this one's pretty close, nudge it 50 miles NW and i think everyone gets a lot of snow as per tonights euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol yeah its a pretty sick storm hate to throw out analogs, but this is a biggie as per the 00z euro. but the models are WAAAAAAAY all over the place. we all here in this thread do deserve one storm that we can all revel in......this one's pretty close, nudge it 50 miles NW and i think everyone gets a lot of snow as per tonights euro. yeah there is definitely wiggle room for it to come north and still keep us primarily snow here and definitely further north. If it come southeast from the euro depiction it would hurt west/central ny to southern quebec and help out the new england crowd. i think we're all due for a big one but anyways its nice to see this in the ALY AFD: TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah there is definitely wiggle room for it to come north and still keep us primarily snow here and definitely further north. If it come southeast from the euro depiction it would hurt west/central ny to southern quebec and help out the new england crowd. i think we're all due for a big one but anyways its nice to see this in the ALY AFD: TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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