weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After seeing the NAM/GFS I have no clue as to why Kevin keeps saying widespread 6-12''...I just don't see it. I'm sticking with my previous call...3-6'' for all of CT and RI and much of MA except for E. MA where 4-8'' and possible 9''/10'' amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems like most models have settled right around .4'' of QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to say the 6-12 scenario seems very unlikely right now lol haha I don't see a huge argument for 6-12 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to say the 6-12 scenario seems very unlikely right now lol If we can squeeze out 20-30, ratios that is, it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After seeing the NAM/GFS I have no clue as to why Kevin keeps saying widespread 6-12''...I just don't see it. I'm sticking with my previous call...3-6'' for all of CT and RI and much of MA except for E. MA where 4-8'' and possible 9''/10'' amounts. Well, if a lot of folks get 6-7" (still possible), he will claim a win. Ryan's call looks good. Not sure about up here. 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems like most models have settled right around .4'' of QPF: Widespread 6 or 7". Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 haha I don't see a huge argument for 6-12 either If I'm BOX, I don't change the headlines since 4-8'' still seems like a pretty decent call. High impact is the story tomorrow, not totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just go with what ever model shows the most snow. It's OK because next week you'll be trashing that model until it shows the next major hit at day 7. I've been consistent in why I think the NAM is failing and post maps almost every time. It was once by far my favorite model, the 6-12 hour wild swings are too much and at some point when the pattern changes next year and it's still not doign well maybe we'll take a look as to why. That said no model was great, but all were in the .3 to .5 ballpark for the last day or so barring a run here and there. Which is in the end what the 0z GFS and RGEM are forecast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 haha I don't see a huge argument for 6-12 either Nice video forecast btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to say the 6-12 scenario seems very unlikely right now lol 6-10. Big ratios. When this thing hits the water it's going to town. I'm going to sleep...been a long week traveling in awful conds Tues and dead tired. Will be up early for (hopefully) some good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have to say the 6-12 scenario seems very unlikely right now lol What about the lollies to 15? This has been another fun one. It could be entertaining here at 2AM when some folks wake up to the 0.3-0.4 becoming a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems like most models have settled right around .4'' of QPF: I'd almost bet 0.4 will yield 6+ in snow. But I suspect it's a few ticks higher regardless of model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6-10. Big ratios. When this thing hits the water it's going to town. I'm going to sleep...been a long week traveling in awful conds Tues and dead tired. Will be up early for (hopefully) some good news. Looks better by you. Not thinking more than 4 or 5 back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nice video forecast btw Thanks man! From about midday today.. had one midterm at school this morning, came back did the video and then went back to school for a track meet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anticipating a heavy, heavy dusting to a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What about the lollies to 15? This has been another fun one. It could be entertaining here at 2AM when some folks wake up to the 0.3-0.4 becoming a consensus. who said lollies to 15????? I mean seriously guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is most of the precip over RI / ECT/ /C MA Virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd almost bet 0.4 will yield 6+ in snow. But I suspect it's a few ticks higher regardless of model output. These fluff events seem to overperform at times, but we'll see. I'm certainly not complaining about another 4''+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Up to .5" QPF in all of SNE. Who's complaining? Been away since early this afternoon, I see some changes, looks like a 4-8" here with downeast maine being the jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 who said lollies to 15????? I mean seriously guys 1 guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 who said lollies to 15????? I mean seriously guys the rev said 14-16 lollies in sne. hey... he took a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks better by you. Not thinking more than 4 or 5 back here Some of your upslope areas are going to town I think. Kevin may do quite well. But I don't know the microclime there so well so I defer.... Was just out walking the dog. Solid ov with moon almost obscured....dimly vis still but obscuring fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6-10" will be difficult but I was leaning on the low end anyway. 4" worst case isnt bad. GN bb at 6am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 mm5 fairly consistent with keeping the heaviest down here. Right on the backside of that, there will be a snowbomb somewhere in SE MA just off the canal. Probably about 150 yards to my west per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, if a lot of folks get 6-7" (still possible), he will claim a win. Ryan's call looks good. Not sure about up here. 4-6" I could see NE MA getting 6-7'' widespread but not in CT...I think in CT 3-5'' will be the main say...obviously some isolated higher totals but they will not be widespread. I'm glad I've stuck with 3-6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've been consistent in why I think the NAM is failing and post maps almost every time. It was once by far my favorite model, the 6-12 hour wild swings are too much and at some point when the pattern changes next year and it's still not doign well maybe we'll take a look as to why. That said no model was great, but all were in the .3 to .5 ballpark for the last day or so barring a run here and there. Which is in the end what the 0z GFS and RGEM are forecast tonight. You are entirely correct on this one good sir. Today it has been atrocious. I really thought it had captured it again at 12z but nope. Amazing. Unlike some people I enjoy that part of the ride, too. It hasn't disappointed and has been fascinating even if it ends up breaking some hearts with the actual outcome. The system was a solid advisory and limited low-end warning event for some days ago...and that's what it is now. I still hope/think we can grab some nice ratios for some folks and see a couple strong totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 who said lollies to 15????? I mean seriously guys Ha! You need to ask that? Maybe it is a good thing you were away during the daytime hours of the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just go with what ever model shows the most snow. It's OK because next week you'll be trashing that model until it shows the next major hit at day 7. someone needs a timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. Great post. It is what we think it is...high impact, high end advisory to low end warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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