Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes it does...because if the other models go east with the surface low like the NAM...the QPF and snow amounts will drop off considerably. I agree with everything you are saying, but I'm not sure it matters. We'll know in a few minutes I suppose, but the RUC looks more impressive with each run. There's something wrong with the NAM (or worse the data/assimilation that's being fed across the board), been that way all year and tonight is probably the most graphic illustration. If it is indeed busting a 0h init, something is wrong terribly in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 To be honest when I post thoughts or a forecast I don't feel like spending 15 minutes responding to getting lambasted. Especially when at work I have other things to be doing. Just kidding....hope I didn't strike a nerve...I usually cut Rev's forecasts in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes it does...because if the other models go east with the surface low like the NAM...the QPF and snow amounts will drop off considerably. Wasn't the euro like .4 for bos? The gfs was like .5. I haven't seen the specific total yet on that nam run...but eyeballing looks like .3 to .4. I just think we are splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pete B going the course with 7-10" with emphasis on the 7", more isolated 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Matt Noyes' latest forecast.. funny comment at the beginning about schools already canceling http://www.necn.com/...089&feedID=4699 LOL, but he did cut back a bit Where is he from? He occasionally lets his accent take over, esp on his video chat thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I agree with everything you are saying, but I'm not sure it matters. We'll know in a few minutes I suppose, but the RUC looks more impressive with each run. There's something wrong with the NAM (or worse the data/assimilation that's being fed across the board), been that way all year and tonight is probably the most graphic illustration. If it is indeed busting a 0h init, something is wrong terribly in the process. Yeah, RUC looks great. Really goes to town with the CCB about 14-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wasn't the euro like .4 for bos? The gfs was like .5. I haven't seen the specific total yet on that nam run...but eyeballing looks like .3 to .4. I just think we are splitting hairs. I guess so...the surface low jumping on the NAM jumping 50-100 miles ESE 12 hours into the run was a bit jarring...I just don't want such a trend to continue with the other models...which were already skimpier with QPF if you catch my drift. You probably want the 00z NAM to be right given your location lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 WTF is taking so long with the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is going to be like last night when the SREFs were down around Cape Hatteras and everybody was speed dialing Dr Kevorkian. Soon after, the NAM and every other piece of guidance blew SNE northward up and everybody was high-fiving and knuckle-tapping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 02z RUC looks like it tracks between MVY and ACK onto Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess so...the surface low jumping on the NAM jumping 50-100 miles ESE 12 hours into the run was a bit jarring...I just don't want such a trend to continue with the other models...which were already skimpier with QPF if you catch my drift. You probably want the 00z NAM to be right given your location lol. I doubt the 00z run is all that much better down my way. Maybe a tick better for a front end thump but the majority is still liquid most likely...and probably just more of it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Matt Noyes' latest forecast.. funny comment at the beginning about schools already canceling http://www.necn.com/...089&feedID=4699 he is leaving the door open for lower accums. "i know where hours away but accumulations are still very much a "variable" and the reason is because it depends on the storm going to town right when it hits the coast and pulling moisture in. the further east the more snow" basically what he said for those that may not have caught it. official forecast cut amount 1 inch for max's in SNE but pushed "jpot area" east about 20 miles kinda like messenger has been harping on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL! My local fox station's snowfall map showed all of central VT with 4-8, and southeastern VT, southern NH, and central mass getting 6-12! Station is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL, but he did cut back a bit Where is he from? He occasionally lets his accent take over, esp on his video chat thing... He's from Haverhill and lives there now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 He's from Haverhill and lives there now too Does his still sometimes have a livecam from his house? That is funny to watch. Sometimes he sounds like he is from downeast Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Canadians must be finishing a round of curling... crickets from NCEP at this point. RUC steady bringing it around ACK later...which is kind of interesting because the theory is the RUC is always too far NW with coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOX update at 10:11 UPDATE...00Z NAM JUST REVIEWED THE NEW 00Z NAM AND ITS LOWER QPF COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF /A SWATH OF 0.75 INCHES/ IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE /PATH OF COASTAL LOW...TRACKING JUST SE OF ACK 12Z-15Z FRI. THIS SEEMS TO YIELD LESS QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOUT A 3 HR PERIOD FROM 12Z-15Z OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT AND RI AT 12Z THEN LIFTING NE INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AREA BY 15Z. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE 00Z NAM DOES GENERATES A LARGE SWATH OF ABOUT 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRI. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. FOR NOW WILL HOLD FIRM WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WAIT TO EVALUATE ALL NEW 00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE 00Z NAM MAY BE GENERATING TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INDUCED QPF AND NOT ENOUGH QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE DIFFERENT 00Z MODELS AND THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES HANDLE THIS SITUATION.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Meh, this is the winter of "banding". Its also the winter of overperformance, not because its magical, take a gander at sst's west of and on the GS. I have no doubt this little honey blows up, plenty of BZ to play off of, question is exactly where. And more importantly where banding sets up, I have not seen a uniform radar presentation this winter, and dont expect to see one tonight. Some will rejoice in dendrites, some will wonder where they are. OKX did a great job, as they have all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ok, it will do what it's going to do. Fully expect to take 6-8" from this event, maybe another 1-3" tomorrow afternoon with the Arctic front. As I write I see the first , lonely renegade flakes drift down. Just a few precursor flakes as the atmosphere juices up. Soon it will be bombs away. I tidy little evnt ripping through,then Arctic air, then BIG WINTER INCOMING, BIG BIG WINTER!!!! GN, see you at 4:45-5:00 AM. Dream snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 To be honest when I post thoughts or a forecast I don't feel like spending 15 minutes responding to getting lambasted. Especially when at work I have other things to be doing. I hear all the time how so and so is friends with so and so, it's all fun, then read this. Which is it? If mets are being driven not to post because of weenies, whomever they may be, try to ignore the weenies. There's a button for it, too. So much drama here and I do not think anyone is ever lambasting someone else. For the most part it's healthy debates or total BS fun. If there is only total agreement no one will ever discover or learn anything. We appreciate the analysis and effort from Ryan and all mets. Keep it coming, please. For BDR, 00z NAM... 110121/0800Z 8 05007KT 28.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/0900Z 9 06009KT 28.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.5 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1000Z 10 06008KT 28.2F SNOW 14:1| 0.4|| 0.9 0.028|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1100Z 11 06008KT 28.2F SNOW 19:1| 0.8|| 1.7 0.043|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1200Z 12 05007KT 28.0F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 2.5 0.039|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110121/1300Z 13 04005KT 28.2F SNOW 20:1| 0.6|| 3.1 0.031|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1400Z 14 01004KT 28.8F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 3.5 0.016|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1500Z 15 31008KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 3.5 0.008|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110121/1600Z 16 31011KT 30.7F SNOW 0:1| 0.0|| 3.5 0.004|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Whatever happens we need to hug the ratios. I won't get 20, but I would love to hang a 15/16 or something along those lines. Feels weird going into this with not a lot of clue as to what it'll turn out to be (in relative terms for the time until the event). I suppose that alone justifies Upton's conservative approach. GFS should be "fun". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL! My local fox station's snowfall map showed all of central VT with 4-8, and southeastern VT, southern NH, and central mass getting 6-12! Station is a joke. Most likely copied from my forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess the RGEM decided the hell with tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Meh, this is the winter of "banding". Its also the winter of overperformance, not because its magical, take a gander at sst's west of and on the GS. I have no doubt this little honey blows up, plenty of BZ to play off of, question is exactly where. And more importantly where banding sets up, I have not seen a uniform radar presentation this winter, and dont expect to see one tonight. Some will rejoice in dendrites, some will wonder where they are. OKX did a great job, as they have all winter. You need a CoT badge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOX update at 10:11 UPDATE...00Z NAM JUST REVIEWED THE NEW 00Z NAM AND ITS LOWER QPF COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF /A SWATH OF 0.75 INCHES/ IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE /PATH OF COASTAL LOW...TRACKING JUST SE OF ACK 12Z-15Z FRI. THIS SEEMS TO YIELD LESS QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOUT A 3 HR PERIOD FROM 12Z-15Z OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT AND RI AT 12Z THEN LIFTING NE INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AREA BY 15Z. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE 00Z NAM DOES GENERATES A LARGE SWATH OF ABOUT 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRI. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. FOR NOW WILL HOLD FIRM WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WAIT TO EVALUATE ALL NEW 00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE 00Z NAM MAY BE GENERATING TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INDUCED QPF AND NOT ENOUGH QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE DIFFERENT 00Z MODELS AND THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES HANDLE THIS SITUATION.-- End Changed Discussion -- Great stuff from Box...all I'd add is that the NAM problems start right at init (or I should say the RUC or NAM problems...we aren't sure which yet). The convective processes at the end come long after it's a disaster/a hero at 0h. It would appear the Atari 2600 used to generate the B&W RGEM graphics has frozen. They're attempting a reboot....j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will mentioned the Nams paltry 7 h RUC looks juicy at 7 h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Most likely copied from my forecast map I actually showed your map to one of my bosses today. She almost cried while I was laughing. I cautioned her that you focus more on NH and it needed to be taken with a grain of DOT salt. hey, I liked it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess the RGEM decided the hell with tonight's run. Looks like we have some color maps running now. Their Atari is broken, but the color SNES is working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Great stuff from Box...all I'd add is that the NAM problems start right at init (or I should say the RUC or NAM problems...we aren't sure which yet). The convective processes at the end come long after it's a disaster/a hero at 0h. It would appear the Atari 2600 used to generate the B&W RGEM graphics has frozen. They're attempting a reboot....j/k. They upgraded to a VIC-20 last week... some issues with the data-corder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess the RGEM decided the hell with tonight's run. The color maps are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You need a CoT badge. I would be honored sir, is it green and white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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