HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 IF IF, it's wrong, it's not convective feedback that's triggering it early. It stinks from the get go, the s/w is a piece of crap long before any convection is developing. It's different from the start. The RUC has a solid s/w, the NAM is a shredded, multi lobe piece of junk. Looking at the water vapor, honestly it's a little tough to argue with either. There's a bunch of little maxes in the mix, but the NAM seems to have failed to pick out the dominate one. EDIT: I'm about half betting we see the diagnostic report issues/deleted/missing data in the OH Valley. What would cause this? Power issues out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tell him 4-8", and dress really warm. It gonna be cold. 16 degrees is not cold...even if its 5-10 degrees at the summit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Glad I went 2"-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The earlier robust solutions didn't have the storm going to town until just past 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Radar off to the West doesn't look all that impressive at this point. Kind of blotchy and disorganized. the radar over the n. part of the system hasn't looked impressive for awhile. but i over analyze ....lol or i.e don't agree with someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, the 01z RUC is more amped than the 00z NAM...shows the sub-1000mb surface within 20 miles SSE of the east end of Long Island...consistent with earlier runs of the NAM, the GFS, and the ECMWF. It's amazing how different the vort is on the RUC and the NAM within 12 hours. It's pretty different at even 0h. Could just be a bad init. I do wish the water vapor was more impressive. I will never know how the NAM has been lucky enough to get some forecasts right with the way it's forecasting the 5h. I guess sometimes positional/structural changes are just overwhelmed by a culmination of other factors, but as we are seeing in this particular solution it's a different storm every six hours. The RUC at 12h has me dryslotted. The NAM is about to pound me with precip. Cool. Don't know which is right but the NAM looks really suspicious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nice!!! of course it will probably happen when I am asleep... but I hope you get some (you got it last week, correct?) I did! I don't think I get any with this, I'm glad I've stuck with my 3-6'' despite Kevin's badgering. Heck, maybe we do end up getting more but if that happens we won't know until tomorrow morning when we can actually see how things look. Kevin would still claim victory but I'm not going balls out unless there is evidence or proof that is what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the radar over the n. part of the system hasn't looked impressive for awhile. but i over analyze ....lol or i.e don't agree with someone else. You do sort of get excited at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fully expecting interior sections of the coastal counties to be upgraded. "If" and "when" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Glad I went 4"-8" Glad I went 3-6 and even that was with reluctance from 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I did! I don't think I get any with this, I'm glad I've stuck with my 3-6'' despite Kevin's badgering. Heck, maybe we do end up getting more but if that happens we won't know until tomorrow morning when we can actually see how things look. Kevin would still claim victory but I'm not going balls out unless there is evidence or proof that is what will happen. At least you won't be destroying your back shoveling 7" of slop/concrete Just aim your hairdryer in the general direction (after gelling up, of course) and it should blow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Didn't the 00z NAM look like total crap the night before Tuesday's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You do sort of get excited at times... lol i will be excited at 4pm tommorrow when i hit the slopes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At least you won't be destroying your back shoveling 7" of slop/concrete Just aim your hairdryer in the general direction (after gelling up, of course) and it should blow away I'll still have to shovel tomorrow but at least it will be all fluff, I definitely need to get to a doctor next week though. I can barely bend down right now, if I sit for a prolonged period of time getting up is extremely painful, when I broke my ankle several years ago that hurt alot less than this does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Didn't the 00z NAM look like total crap the night before Tuesday's event? Tuesday's event was total crap... at least along the Conn. shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Glad I went 3-6 and even that was with reluctance from 2-5. lol Kevin has been out of control on here this winter. To be honest I didn't post pretty much at all the last 48 hours because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tuesday's event was total crap... at least along the Conn. shore. Well, not here it wasn't ...I was talking generally. It was either the night before or two nights before when it laid a massive egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's pretty different at even 0h. Could just be a bad init. I do wish the water vapor was more impressive. I will never know how the NAM has been lucky enough to get some forecasts right with the way it's forecasting the 5h. I guess sometimes positional/structural changes are just overwhelmed by a culmination of other factors, but as we are seeing in this particular solution it's a different storm every six hours. The RUC at 12h has me dryslotted. The NAM is about to pound me with precip. Cool. Don't know which is right but the NAM looks really suspicious.... yeah you are right...the NAM looks absolutely shredded with the shortwave at 00 hours. We will know for certain if this is legitimate at about 1030pm. I strongly suspect the NAM is off it's rocker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What would cause this? Power issues out there? Honestly I don't really know, but here's the 0z RUC vs the 0z NAM. This is incredibly rare, they are almost always very similar. In fact I can never remember a difference this dramatic. I looked at the SPC 0z 5h init and it's less amplified than both of these solutions....but I have never used it before and don't know how tight it is/true to grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol i will be excited at 4pm tommorrow when i hit the slopes! I'll be there with my son... not sure how long we will stay... wife gets cranky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm 99% sure the NAM is wrong...the NAM is actually more amplified than the 18z GFS at 12 hours and 18 hours...yet the low somehow gets out east and shoves no little precip back toward New England. It's in contrast to the SREFs...which brought heavier precip further west. God I hope your right, NAM is strange.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol Kevin has been out of control on here this winter. To be honest I didn't post pretty much at all the last 48 hours because of it. ryan does the 0z nam run bother you (qpf cut) or do you think it has convective feedback or other issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Honestly I don't really know, but here's the 0z RUC vs the 0z NAM. This is incredibly rare, they are almost always very similar. In fact I can never remember a difference this dramatic. I looked at the SPC 0z 5h init and it's less amplified than both of these solutions....but I have never used it before and don't know how tight it is/true to grid. The 00z RUC won't have new Radiosondes. I'm not sure if the 01z RUC does...but I'm pretty sure the 02z RUC would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RGEM comes out shortly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ryan does the 0z nam run bother you (qpf cut) or do you think it has convective feedback issues. I'm not surprised something cut back. I generally take the NAM QPF and chop it by 25% or so when it's the wettest op run. It's all about how early this thing starts to wrap up. If it takes too long then we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 16 degrees is not cold...even if its 5-10 degrees at the summit Fair enough - but below 0º wind chills and blowing snow may make it seem worse. Or, I'm getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol Kevin has been out of control on here this winter. To be honest I didn't post pretty much at all the last 48 hours because of it. LOL agreed. The creation of hostility out of thin air for amusement grows old but is tolerated? Causes others to snap when innocent comments are made as everyone is on edge. The 00z RUC won't have new Radiosondes. I'm not sure if the 01z RUC does...but I'm pretty sure the 02z RUC would. Okay, are you saying the 0z RUC would be without new radiosondes, but the 0z NAM would be? And also that the later Ruc's would? Reason I ask is normally we'd be able to say "AHAHAAA"...there's the error on the NAM or RUC. But it isn't terrible obvious. Sure there's drying evident in the southern system, but there's also some evidence of contamination from a ton of other s/w's. That was always kind of forecast - remember a few days back when the NAM went east for a run or two because of it? Is this just the NAM being hyper sensitive again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not surprised something cut back. I generally take the NAM QPF and chop it by 25% or so when it's the wettest op run. It's all about how early this thing starts to wrap up. If it takes too long then we're in trouble. It's not cutting back QPF from previous runs...it's a completely different solution...in contrast to all the 12z and 18z runs from the globals and the mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol Kevin has been out of control on here this winter. To be honest I didn't post pretty much at all the last 48 hours because of it. lol so you know his sleeping habits that well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL agreed. The creation of hostility out of thin air for amusement grows old but is tolerated? Causes others to snap when innocent comments are made as everyone is on edge. Okay, are you saying the 0z RUC would be without new radiosondes, but the 0z NAM would be? And also that the later Ruc's would? Reason I ask is normally we'd be able to say "AHAHAAA"...there's the error on the NAM or RUC. But it isn't terrible obvious. Sure there's drying evident in the southern system, but there's also some evidence of contamination from a ton of other s/w's. That was always kind of forecast - remember a few days back when the NAM went east for a run or two because of it? Is this just the NAM being hyper sensitive again? the 00z RUC initializes way too soon to receive the new radiosondes..the NAM does not. Typically, radiosonde data is done around 01 or 0130z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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