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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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Snow really lightening up now and the sun is peeking through

Just measured 5.5, 5.5, 6.0, 5.5, so I will call it 5.5"

Not too shabby. Wife just headed out on her xc-skiis for the first time in a couple of years. Good stuff out there. 17"+ of snowpack that is in really good shape

Wouldn't mind a snowman type storm, though. These have been mostly dry powder with the exception of Tuesday where it was powder followed by freezing rain.

I hope you boys will stop the nonsense.

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btw... NAM 2M temps are the coldest I've seen in a long time.

-11 for BDL on Monday AM!!!

I think we'll have a lot of -8 to -15 even close to the shore. Look at IJD the other morning coming in at -6 or -7. A few of the CT ASOS have been below zero this month already. OKX has been pretty conservative on the upcoming cold in the southern counties. Other than some clouds Sat. night, this weekend is the set up for widespread well below zero if there ever was one in CT.

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I think we'll have a lot of -8 to -15 even close to the shore. Look at IJD the other morning coming in at -6 or -7. A few of the CT ASOS have been below zero this month already. OKX has been pretty conservative on the upcoming cold in the southern counties. Other than some clouds Sat. night, this weekend is the set up for widespread well below zero if there ever was one in CT.

When was that big cold snap on the shoreline 2 years ago?

I'm trying to put this in some perspective?

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I didn't get offended... I have a thick skin lol.

To be honest what has frustrated me lately is that posting a relatively conservative (and in this case, not conservative enough) forecast has been met with ire and criticism and no one backs anything up with science or reasoning. When I'm at work and busy doing stuff I like to pop in here occasionally and post some thoughts. Having to respond to 10 posts within 10 minutes about how I don't know what I'm talking about and why would I go conservative can get annoying.

IDK Ryan of anyone beside KeV who really criticizes your forecasts, and he does it because you guys are buds, you know it. Having said that you dish it out too! I know personally, LOL but it's all good. Warm snowless Jan continues. HA

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I'm sure stuff I say offends some, but I can live with that....someone is always going to be "offended".

Look, all I said was I think it would help if you went to one, but are you obligated or at fault if you don't; no.

Ray, no problems. You speak your mind, are fair, and although you go off the rails sometimes (so do I), you are an honest guy and I appreciate that.

LOL oh boy don't throw me into this :lol:

I called out the NAM hate but hate away now! Like we talked about yesterday, awful. I wish we had that 12z back :arrowhead: - I really thought it was on board starting the trend when it was a pile of garbage. I was sooo wrong on that. Still can't believe how terrible it was.

I can't wait to go back and compare the maps we were looking at last night. You and I jumped on each other a couple times (no, stop) but obviously it means nothing to us. It's always a good discussion.

HA!, just pointing out we can disagree without it getting personal. The 0z NAM was probably the worst run I've seen of any model this year in terms of continuity break/error. Not a critcism but I think NCEP was wrong, it init'd poorly last night. The only time I got a little touchy was when Leesun was saying I loved the euro or whatever...I'm a huge NAM fan just dont know what's wrong with it the last few months.

All for it.

You are a fair and equitable guy that I don't think would let personal friendships interfere with moderating per the rules. I'm all for you getting the badge.

--

Universally nobody likes where the forum is or where it's going. Why not try it differently for the next event? No instigations tolerated, OT goes to the OT/banter thread. Opinions must be supported/maps, etc. Criticisms are not made personal but are made just on the facts/beliefs. Save the personal stuff for PM. What is there to lose? Why not try it?

Light snow, visibility is about 2-3 miles but it is dusting things up.

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When was that big cold snap on the shoreline 2 years ago?

I'm trying to put this in some perspective?

Jan 15-17, 2009. My high/lows for that stretch were 18/-1, 18/-9, 18/-10. A trace of snow fell on the 14th followed by 3.7 inches of snow on the 15th ushering in the arctic air mass.

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Universally nobody likes where the forum is or where it's going. Why not try it differently for the next event? No instigations tolerated, OT goes to the OT/banter thread. Opinions must be supported/maps, etc. Criticisms are not made personal but are made just on the facts/beliefs. Save the personal stuff for PM. What is there to lose? Why not try it?

Light snow, visibility is about 2-3 miles but it is dusting things up.

it shouldn't have to be all black and white like that though.

one of the reasons i have typically enjoyed this forum is that it's a place to feel out what could transpire with an event with other folks while also just casually enjoying the weather.

i don't come on here to voice my opinion on how things are going to shape up/which model is right/wrong etc. etc. it's just a place to talk about the weather.

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No one should rag on anyone for the forecasts outside of some good natured or light hearted ribbing, but it does tend to get personal for some reason. No point in shoving someone's broken forecast in their face, I know I wouldn't appreciate that, but the people who are more conservative shouldn't get crap about being debbie downers or whatever leading up to the event. Anyways, the New England threads do work a lot differently than the other regions for better or worse.

well i go in a few different regions, and the new england thread is a lot different from the others

1. extremely informative, great (best) met community and numerous hobbyits with excellent knowledge

2. high levels of camraderie and closest knit group....i know people say it makes them shy away from posting, but to me, it makes this subform more personable and enjoyable to post in....and of course im not even from the region, technically......:lol:

3. a great cast of characters and more humor than any other forum

4. competive....ive noticed this, putting out forecasts more than other regions

5. probably the most dififcult region to forecast snow for.....elevation, valley, coastal fronts, SWFE`s from hell, screw zones, etc.........very tough.

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Send him this way. We have numerous mice/moles running in our yard this winter. Yum yum

There in lies the problem - bird eater. You need members of the buteo family like Red-tailed or Red-shouldered Hawks. The thing is we have such a snowpack here they have had trouble getting to them. This has only added to it obviously and more to come next week. Combined with the temperature it is a rare situation for the Connecticut coast.

Kbosch ... no idea on totals. At work downtown and no place to get an accurate measurement. Heavy to mod snow currently.

Ahhh, gotcha. Good stuff though!

HA!, just pointing out we can disagree without it getting personal. The 0z NAM was probably the worst run I've seen of any model this year in terms of continuity break/error. Not a critcism but I think NCEP was wrong, it init'd poorly last night. The only time I got a little touchy was when Leesun was saying I loved the euro or whatever...I'm a huge NAM fan just dont know what's wrong with it the last few months.

Exactly. And the poor NAM, so ugly. What a shock, it broke my heart already :P

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yeah overall this is as close to an ideal delivery as we've had in quite some time. maybe still a bit too much westerly component in there but it's some pretty substantial cold.

someplace like ORH may have a tough time getting to 7 or 8F on Monday for a high i think.

Talked with several people about the upcoming cold, probable looking double digits below in spots with the snow depth etc. Spent all day yesterday reprogramming HVAC, heating water, boiler set points to compensate, also leaving open ceiling access points, doors etc in normally cold spots, duration and intensity are contributing factors. Been a long time since the last one.

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Ryan, I think the last coldest several day period on the CT coast (in STFD anyways) that really sticks out to me was January 2004. We had a lot of single digits/just below zero temps in the north end. Here's BDR's lowest min temp records for the period.

1/9 -3 in 1968 2 in 2004 4 in 1981

1/10 -2 in 2004 -1 in 1968 5 in 1982

1/11 2 in 1982 2 in 1968 3 in 2004

1/12 -3 in 1981 0 in 1982 3 in 1968

1/13 3 in 1981 5 in 1968 6 in 1954

1/14 1 in 2004 2 in 1988 2 in 1954

1/15 -5 in 1957 -1 in 1988 0 in 2004

1/16 0 in 2004 0 in 1994 4 in 2009

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