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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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All in all happy with my 6-12..12 was too high and 5-10 would have been better..but considering some of the non mets in the SE Mass area that were calling for 1-3 or 3-5 for all of SNE well.. enough said

Virtually no one in CT will get 6" (outside of your area)... so I wouldn't say that's a "good call".

You also have to figure the middle of that range is 9" which no one in CT will see at all.

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I am about 1mi E of 24 and about 1/2m N of Rt 140.

edit, if there was sleet, it was brief 5-10 min tops.

Got it...north of the mall? I think it's probably what I said...the radar might be showing the edge of the melting/bright banding, but the actual mix was just to the east of that. That's what I said not sure why you got on me...said it would stay just to your SE :)

It's timing out/with the dry slot too. Then it collapses SE - happening on radar already. NAM before it went bonkers in the last few runs had this forecast pretty well. I think yesterday I commented it would make it to about exit 5-7/rte 3 which is what it had forecast, and what happened. GFS got too aggressive I think in the end, was a little warm, RUC not bad.

It's a nice storm, HRRR/RUC did pretty well showing the burst, as did the NMM. You/easton and up through the rest of the guys is getting whacked yet again.

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It wont quite here..still under 20-25 dbz...big flakes. Need another measurement...might crack 6" afterall.

Just finished driving Sudbury to Lowell, and it seemed to be living up to billing mostly, with 3" in Sudbury at 7AM.

its coming down like crazy in Lowell - much heavier than during the drive - easily 4" on the ground and S+. Flake size up as well.

Guess making the forecast 7" (Taunton's map) depends on how long this state of affairs lasts.

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Virtually no one in CT will get 6" (outside of your area)... so I wouldn't say that's a "good call".

You also have to figure the middle of that range is 9" which no one in CT will see at all.

Tolland and Windham counties will all have many reports of 6 plus. Some places in Windham Cty will have 8-9.

And my forecast was for all of SNE..not just CT..so a general 5-10 would have been a better call..and admitedly some spots in central and south coastal CT didn't reach 5.

Certainly a better call than the 2-4 SNE forecasts

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Got it...north of the mall? I think it's probably what I said...the radar might be showing the edge of the melting/bright banding, but the actual mix was just to the east of that. That's what I said not sure why you got on me...said it would stay just to your SE :)

It's timing out/with the dry slot too. Then it collapses SE - happening on radar already. NAM before it went bonkers in the last few runs had this forecast pretty well. I think yesterday I commented it would make it to about exit 5-7/rte 3 which is what it had forecast, and what happened. GFS got too aggressive I think in the end, was a little warm, RUC not bad.

It's a nice storm, HRRR/RUC did pretty well showing the burst, as did the NMM. You/easton and up through the rest of the guys is getting whacked yet again.

Actually due E of the mall. I still think my brief sleet idea will be the truth. All in all not bad. It's all going to collapse now as the dryslot move through over to you.

This must be a shallow warm layer close to the surface. As I write this I can see the snow taking over again.

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Just to your NW (right at by the 138/24 interchange) we never changed. Been steady mod (to sometimes heavy) snow here for the last couple hours.

Yep just to your NW all heavy snow too.

Literally the r/s line will start to move east again and already is, so whatever Bob has for a mix...that should about do it I think as it comes back east.

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5.3" here so we'll see what he comes up with to verify that.

Who, the ORH observer?

I have no faith in him...he sometimes does good...but then he will pull acts like not reporting 12/23....he sucks whether he wants toi believe it or not. You report every day.

We still have an ugly "M" for 12/23 when we got like an inch. Probably too much egg nog that night.

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