nutmegfriar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 They will up their amounts either later tonight or after the snow starts falling Hope you're right. They knocked it by an inch from earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think you'll be in the 6-12 range I'm psyched for white smoke. Hoping to notch a -20 or better night Sunday then a monster hit Tues/Wed. Just love Winter so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowiscomingdown Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Between .25-.5'', probably closer to .5'' for most. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Not quite, no. .5''+ was confined to N MA and S NH/VT. Will said it did I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Upton certainly is not. LOL, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Had .50 back to the river valley at least What were you thinking for ratios? I was going with 15:1...perhaps you're thinking closer to 20:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will said it did I think He might have, I think he has WSI so his are probably higher resolution. Mine have .25-.5'' for the entire state of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I do know he told KBosch a little under .40" for Stratford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What were you thinking for ratios? I was going with 15:1...perhaps you're thinking closer to 20:1? 16:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 old news but 15z ETA. tracks right near ACK...similar to what the RUC is pushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 16:1 So were pretty close in the ratio department, thought maybe you were thinking a bit higher than I was which would have explained our difference. In all honesty I shouldn't have labeled my last call my "final call"...I'm just going to wait and see what the 0z guidance has to show, perhaps maybe I'll go 4-8'' or maybe 5-9''...but I want to feel confident enough that as least pretty close to everyone in the state will see at least 4-5'' before I do that. Too me it's close for us getting whacked with this, real close, but I just think it's going to be just a hair too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Radar over Pennsylvania looking pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 old news but 15z ETA. tracks right near ACK...similar to what the RUC is pushing. Looks decent for us no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think someone here said the HRRR nailed one of the storms, maybe 12/26 The 22z punches some pretty warm air north. Also has a dry slot up into some of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here's the HRRR zoomed in, this is also the newest, 23z. Ruc/HRRR and other models hinting/hammering two areas of moisture, one with the lobe that develops offshore and rides up over SE MA, the other that moves in from the west. For awhile it's painting a cake hole in between. Precip over the Cape/SEMA starts as snow, but the warm air is hot on the heels of the heaviest stuff. Do not know how good/bad this model is, others including a red tagger suggested it has done well at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is that a deformation band in that second to last frame on the hrrr chart over western conn again.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess it's kind of lame...but I remember growing up that seeing that lake-effect snowband moving east off Lake Ontario into the Toronto area was a sign a storm was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 rest of the 23z HRRR run...gets warm south of boston which holds down snow totals, also in RI and coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well mess FYI it did OK with one storm but really is not good, check out the 15 min version for entertainment http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus15min/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_15min:&runTime=2011012023&plotName=rvil15min_t3sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well mess FYI it did OK with one storm but really is not good, check out the 15 min version for entertainment http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1 I like the graphics kind of neat....let's see how it plays out just hard posting for history. -- 0z Ruc Init v nam and v GFS. Wxcaster was def right both models were too fast with the northern stream, and to some extent the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dom, sorry, I got pulled away for a minute. In my last forecast I sent around noon, I said 4-7" southwest, 5-8" south-central, 6-10" southeast, 2-4" west-central, 3-6" east-central, 1-3" north. I'm not going gung ho (yet) like I am on here I'll send out an update after the 00z NAM, which, barring major changes, will probably bump the southern half of the state up an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What's interesting is the RUC has been banging away at the idea of a stronger s/w crossing PA which was a hallmark of the earlier/stronger models 12z prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Awfully quiet in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Awfully quiet in here About to" heat" up with the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 About to" heat" up with the 00z suite. bad choice of words or ominous omen for those south/east of Boston PVD ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 bad choice of words or ominous omen for those south/east of Boston PVD ? IMHO, no one off the islands has any worries. This is a cold dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 bad choice of words or ominous omen for those south/east of Boston PVD ? nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 21z SREFs bump a hair NW with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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