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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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16:1

So were pretty close in the ratio department, thought maybe you were thinking a bit higher than I was which would have explained our difference.

In all honesty I shouldn't have labeled my last call my "final call"...I'm just going to wait and see what the 0z guidance has to show, perhaps maybe I'll go 4-8'' or maybe 5-9''...but I want to feel confident enough that as least pretty close to everyone in the state will see at least 4-5'' before I do that.

Too me it's close for us getting whacked with this, real close, but I just think it's going to be just a hair too late for us.

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Here's the HRRR zoomed in, this is also the newest, 23z. Ruc/HRRR and other models hinting/hammering two areas of moisture, one with the lobe that develops offshore and rides up over SE MA, the other that moves in from the west. For awhile it's painting a cake hole in between. Precip over the Cape/SEMA starts as snow, but the warm air is hot on the heels of the heaviest stuff.

Do not know how good/bad this model is, others including a red tagger suggested it has done well at times.

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Well mess FYI it did OK with one storm but really is not good, check out the 15 min version for entertainment

http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1

I like the graphics kind of neat....let's see how it plays out just hard posting for history.

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0z Ruc Init v nam and v GFS.

Wxcaster was def right both models were too fast with the northern stream, and to some extent the southern.

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Dom, sorry, I got pulled away for a minute. In my last forecast I sent around noon, I said 4-7" southwest, 5-8" south-central, 6-10" southeast, 2-4" west-central, 3-6" east-central, 1-3" north. I'm not going gung ho (yet) like I am on here :lol:

I'll send out an update after the 00z NAM, which, barring major changes, will probably bump the southern half of the state up an inch or two

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