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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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Its improved a lot in this band....much better than 12/13/07 baking powder shake-fest. But I'm skeptical that it sticks around...the RUC has much better lift moving overhead in the next 2-3 hours, so hopefully its all good from here on out.

But if 12/13/07 taught us anything, don't believe the cross sections until you actually see the dendrite landing on your coat sleeve. Remember how it showed decent dendrite growth? Then it was garbage for the actual event.

I think we talked about it on of our vintage late night '08 or '09 sprees...we usually want to see the lift very deep and pretty strong. You loved the 20 microbar per second threshold IIRC.

seems to be the threshold where hell breaks loose...especially if the omega is deep. 12/13/07 is still a bit of an enigma to me.

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seems to be the threshold where hell breaks loose...especially if the omega is deep.

I think I will be scrapping for the low end of my forecast. I'm not sure 4" will be that easy.

Its not a storm that wants to cooperate. Lots of red flags. We should call this storm the "red flag storm"...since the models were getting qpf-happy with a lot of the synoptics a bit off.

Still should claw my way there and the bands should darken at the last second, but its certainly not the way you want to try and get a forecast to work....since you already know in the back of your mind that there are some things wrong.

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12/13/07 may have had baking powder but it delivered a fast 10 inches. It actually was (short term) a crippling event given timing and poor planning.

We talk about it because of how much snow it delivered....we said back then how it might have produced an 18" lolli if it had been good dendrite growth.

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We got the 12/13/07 snow now.

Pretty good dendrites here now...but we need to play catchup. I've already gotten two calls on this storm asking me where the snow is.

It sucks having to answer to people. I want to just weenie out. But the snow growth has def improved so we can get some good snow accumulations here in the next few hours if it doesn't die on me.

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I think I will be scrapping for the low end of my forecast. I'm not sure 4" will be that easy.

Its not a storm that wants to cooperate. Lots of red flags. We should call this storm the "red flag storm"...since the models were getting qpf-happy with a lot of the synoptics a bit off.

Still should claw my way there and the bands should darken at the last second, but its certainly not the way you want to try and get a forecast to work....since you already know in the back of your mind that there are some things wrong.

I don't know what it means up there, but we're getting pummeled right now...easily over 4" in Westchester, thinking I make 6"+...ratios improved rapidly as the storm wore on, and this last area of banding looks extremely intense.

25/23 SN

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Pretty good dendrites here now...but we need to play catchup. I've already gotten two calls on this storm asking me where the snow is.

It sucks having to answer to people. I want to just weenie out. But the snow growth has def improved so we can get some good snow accumulations here in the next few hours if it doesn't die on me.

Waiting to see what that stuff near SFZ is like. Hopefully, that's the better lift giving the good dendrites.

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Heavy snow. Still small flakes but vis under 1/4 mile. New 10z ruc continues to seriously clobber east coastal MA this morning.

yeah the 10z ruc is wetter for most folks if you can believe it. I usually don't trust that thing much but we'll see how it goes. really goes to town between 12z and 15z across central/eastern mass...and eventually pounds maine with several cans of baking soda.

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