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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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Man whoever this new guy is at BOX ...Sipperell..he is good this is Dragesque type stuff.. What a winter

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCRS INTO AFTN AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF WILL

TRANSLATE THRU THE ERN GRT LKS RGN AND THRU NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF

THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF HIGHLIGHT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS

THE ERN GRT LKS THRU NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATORY ARCTIC

AIR MASS. MID-LVL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE LIMITING

TEMPS FROM AN AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREE RISE FOR HIGHS ON SAT. POPS ARE

LIKELY MORESO IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRT LKS RGN...BUT THERE IS A

SLIGHT CHC FOR -SN TO REACH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AS THERE IS

ADIABATIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE ISENTROPIC FLOW FIELDS...ESPECIALLY IN

FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGIMES.

INTO SUN...WITH W-NWLY FLOW DECOUPLING OVRNGT AND INCRSG CLOUDS

OVRNGT MINS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR INTERIOR ELEVATED RGNS...SUCH

AS THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE

EXCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK INTO THE AFTN

WITH DEPARTING WEAK SFC LOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND AN AVERAGE OF

10 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS

WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE ACRS THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -16C AT

MORNING TO -20 TO -22C BY EVNG.

INTO MON...CHALLENGES REMAIN AS SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH POTENTIAL

CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS...

WEAKENED NWLY FLOW...AND LIKELY SNOW COVER...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO

COLDEST VALUES YET FOR THE SEASON. GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...PRESENT

THINKING IS FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND HILLS TO FALL TO -10 TO -15F...

WITH REMAINING INTERIOR SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO...TO

FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ONLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LOOK TO

REMAIN ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MON MORNING TIMEFRAME. SKIES LOOK TO

REMAIN CLEAR THRU MON ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS

FOR INTERIOR HILLS AND VALLEYS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.

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Man whoever this new guy is at BOX ...Sipperell..he is good this is Dragesque type stuff.. What a winter

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCRS INTO AFTN AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF WILL

TRANSLATE THRU THE ERN GRT LKS RGN AND THRU NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF

THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF HIGHLIGHT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS

THE ERN GRT LKS THRU NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATORY ARCTIC

AIR MASS. MID-LVL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE INCREASE LIMITING

TEMPS FROM AN AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREE RISE FOR HIGHS ON SAT. POPS ARE

LIKELY MORESO IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRT LKS RGN...BUT THERE IS A

SLIGHT CHC FOR -SN TO REACH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AS THERE IS

ADIABATIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE ISENTROPIC FLOW FIELDS...ESPECIALLY IN

FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGIMES.

INTO SUN...WITH W-NWLY FLOW DECOUPLING OVRNGT AND INCRSG CLOUDS

OVRNGT MINS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR INTERIOR ELEVATED RGNS...SUCH

AS THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE

EXCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK INTO THE AFTN

WITH DEPARTING WEAK SFC LOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND AN AVERAGE OF

10 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS

WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE ACRS THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING -16C AT

MORNING TO -20 TO -22C BY EVNG.

INTO MON...CHALLENGES REMAIN AS SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH POTENTIAL

CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS...

WEAKENED NWLY FLOW...AND LIKELY SNOW COVER...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO

COLDEST VALUES YET FOR THE SEASON. GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...PRESENT

THINKING IS FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND HILLS TO FALL TO -10 TO -15F...

WITH REMAINING INTERIOR SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO...TO

FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. ONLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LOOK TO

REMAIN ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MON MORNING TIMEFRAME. SKIES LOOK TO

REMAIN CLEAR THRU MON ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS

FOR INTERIOR HILLS AND VALLEYS WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.

BOS last temp below 0 I think was Jan 2005...have to double check but I think that is correct.

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We're gonna have 2 days this weekend where the hills don't get out of the single digits.

And -10 -15 at night is crazy

ORH hasn't been below -12F since 1994 I don't think. That is the benchmark. They hit -12F twice in Jan 2004. And I think once in Jan 2005.

BOS got below 0 in Jan 2005 (and a few times in Jan 2004)...but they are likely to get below 0F again this coming outbreak. Pretty good stuff. The trajectory is perfect for SNE..its NNW...our coldest outbreaks come out of the NNW from E Ontario and W Quebec. Not from the W like other cities on the EC.

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Snow growth here is still a bit annoying...it has dendrites mixed in, but still a lot of plates...we need to get the omega to deepen a little which should happen in the next hour or so. But we can't keep on like this and try to squeeze out 6-7"...we'll be 3-5" and done if it doesn't get going.

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Latest 09z RUC indicates this will really pop in the 12z time frame...a bit sooner for CT in the next hour. So if it doesn't start to go nuts in the next 1-2 hours, then the warning snows will be tough to come by...only in isolated pockets.

Arnold needs to respond saying how he can't believe models can't agree on 8" or 3" within 6 hours for his BY.

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Latest 09z RUC indicates this will really pop in the 12z time frame...a bit sooner for CT in the next hour. So if it doesn't start to go nuts in the next 1-2 hours, then the warning snows will be tough to come by...only in isolated pockets.

Arnold needs to respond saying how he can't believe models can't agree on 8" or 3" within 6 hours for his BY.

Well based on how hard its snowing along with good dendrites in CT it would appear the RUC has done a good job with this

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Well based on how hard its snowing along with good dendrites in CT it would appear the RUC has done a good job with this

Well I think its sort of on track, but there is nothing that screams to me yet on bust or hit...its a tedious situation.

I'm calling him Arnold now...I keep picturing Arnold from Terminator II everytime I see the handle. I'd like to hear his thoughts for there...because its insane how different the RUC and the NAM are and even other guidance. Difference between like 8-10" there and 3-4".

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Latest 09z RUC indicates this will really pop in the 12z time frame...a bit sooner for CT in the next hour. So if it doesn't start to go nuts in the next 1-2 hours, then the warning snows will be tough to come by...only in isolated pockets.

Arnold needs to respond saying how he can't believe models can't agree on 8" or 3" within 6 hours for his BY.

I threw out the 06z nam. the 03z srefs, ec, gfs are in decent agreement. this stuff is adding up quick.

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Well I think its sort of on track, but there is nothing that screams to me yet on bust or hit...its a tedious situation.

I'm calling him Arnold now...I keep picturing Arnold from Terminator II everytime I see the handle. I'd like to hear his thoughts for there...because its insane how different the RUC and the NAM are and even other guidance. Difference between like 8-10" there and 3-4".

How about this Arnold?

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Well I think its sort of on track, but there is nothing that screams to me yet on bust or hit...its a tedious situation.

I'm calling him Arnold now...I keep picturing Arnold from Terminator II everytime I see the handle. I'd like to hear his thoughts for there...because its insane how different the RUC and the NAM are and even other guidance. Difference between like 8-10" there and 3-4".

I just picture some tall, geeky type guy named Arnold with gangly arms ..He needs to switch back to Mekster

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