H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Once again I say it has much more to do with politics and ignorance than forecasts or actualized outcome. It is a lot easier to say cancel it, especially in this economic climate. Yeah I suppose..it seems like it's gotten worse in the last few years. The weird thing is there's only some districts that do it. I'm out of HS now but my town never cancels the day before no matter what. Then there's Waterbury who always cancels at like 6 pm the night before. But I digress since this is OT anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah I suppose..it seems like it's gotten worse in the last few years. The weird thing is there's only some districts that do it. I'm out of HS now but my town never cancels the day before no matter what. Then there's Waterbury who always cancels at like 6 pm the night before. But I digress since this is OT anyway.. Yes, right in line with the economy. You don't have to get more town workers to clean sidewalks, don't need to use more supplies, crank the heat up another day, and of course risk lawsuits, etc. Is it just me or does this all look a hair faster? The good stuff is going to be in NJ soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 School districts may pull the trigger too soon, but: #1 If there were a watch, warning, or even an advisory, and a bus went off the road or such, God forbid, the school district would be up to it armpits in lawyers, without a leg to stand on. Administrators are positively panic-stricken at the mere thought of litigation -- hence all those zero-tolerance rules that make the news. #2 reason -- inexperienced drivers. In suburban/exurban/rural communities, a hundred sleep-deprived inexperienced young drivers, driving beaters, on balding tires, on snow.... it's not a calming thing to contemplate. See also #1. That's why they have insurance policies. Bad drivers are everywhere. There's no reason why parents cannot plan the night before and get the call at 4-6am via the automated systems. That's what we did and all of our neighbors as our district isn't called off yet. The world didnt end. Let's see how it goes first, no doubt will be a few hours o fheavier snow. Yeah I suppose..it seems like it's gotten worse in the last few years. The weird thing is there's only some districts that do it. I'm out of HS now but my town never cancels the day before no matter what. Then there's Waterbury who always cancels at like 6 pm the night before. But I digress since this is OT anyway.. Luckily the districts here have smartened up. Despite the winter storm warning nobody paid any attention, life is going on. We had the Blizzard warning and earlier storm warnings that didnt go well, people are just kind of tuning it out now down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems to me that a lot of schools are indeed waiting until 4-6AM to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like HFD is now reporting light snow. There's a nice area of precip blossoming over MD and SE PA which I think will become the heavier stuff later tonight and early morning. Looks to me like we have two distinct snow origination points. One is the stuff in PA that will ru n a line into CT. The other blows up offshore and rockets into SNE. They keep separated for some time and there may be a dry area in between for a time into CT? It should start to go wild offshore ACY at any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 "Lastly, the air to the north is pretty cold and dry, suggesting 20-to-1 ratios that would translate .6 inches of liquid into a foot of snow fairly easily. So, if that NAM forecast is right, my worry of 15 to 20 inches of snow would be warranted. " Kev's buddy Lundberg may have over-reached/needed to update but hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Light snow here now. Looks like about 8-10dbz is the magic number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Light snow here now. Looks like about 8-10dbz is the magic number. Just started E of 495 in Sudbury, too. A bit faster than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just started E of 495 in Sudbury, too. A bit faster than expected? Maybe by a few minutes or so...but I expected first flakes at 06z...and it started around 20 of the hour, so pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 radar looks fantastic in eastern pa the delmarva southern jersey area, should be ripping at daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Light snow here too, grounds covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Light snow here too, grounds covered. The ground has been covered for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ground has been covered for weeks. Since 12/26 here on the ct south coast, pretty damn impressive, looks like a few more weeks in the future as well, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Getting better by the minute across eastern PA while starting to work into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gonna be a fun ride from IZG to BOS tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 -S, 24/19 @ 0605Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ruc ftw, nam and it's subs ftl. Low probability of a snowbomb here...better prob somewhere just west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ruc ftw, nam and it's subs ftl. Low probability of a snowbomb here...better prob somewhere just west of me. Yeah it looks like the 00z NAM is doing a terrible job down in the M.A. Not sure what happened. SPC in their MD noted that it had a lot of offshore rainfall so I wonder if there was some convective problems...they are bullish on pretty big snow here between 5-9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Weenie flakes just as I arrive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. This is a great post. Highlights everything that we need to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210530Z - 211030Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-84/95 CORRIDORS FROM ERN PA INTO MA. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR SHOULD OCCUR...MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. ALTHOUGH DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW RATES IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT...HIGH TRAVEL IMPACT ON MORNING RUSH HOUR APPEARS PROBABLE FROM THE NEW YORK CITY TO BOSTON METRO AREAS. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB CYCLONE OVER S-CNTRL PA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DRAPED EWD TO LONG ISLAND. 00Z MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY/...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST THROUGH 12Z. STRENGTHENING LOWER-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL RESULT IN ROBUST FORCED ASCENT DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA TO MA. THIS SUPPORTS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF/QSF DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SREF MEAN...GFS...HRRR...AND ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AXIS SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR...WITH RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS 11-14Z. THE 00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH INLAND QPF THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH GREATER OFFSHORE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 IN/HR MAY BE RESTRICTED TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE MODERATE RATES WWD. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT IR CLOUD-TOP COOLING AND INCREASING RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM CNTRL MD INTO ERN PA...SUSPECT THE NAM MAY BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO A PROBABLE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY BETWEEN 07-11Z. ..GRAMS.. 01/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40397500 40577575 41157576 42057489 42557335 42687158 42687080 41947056 41497083 41247192 40817314 40457442 40397500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 radar is just expolsive to our sw, should be a good storm for most of sne, 4-8 couple lollis, its sugar pow time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Snow growth must be pretty good once you get over 15 dbz echoes...HFD just went to 1/2 SN with a pretty ugly looking radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting how the snow kinda skipped over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The RUC continues to just absolutely hammer Boston proper between 13-16z...very strong 700mb vertical velocities and what appears to be support for a frontogenically forced band of heavy snow...just kissing Ray's house but you can never really tell with the variability of the RUC where it's going to seriously set up. That being said the RUC idea is a micro beast of a band..somebody would really be absolutely ripping underneath this type of dynamic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ruc ftw, nam and it's subs ftl. Low probability of a snowbomb here...better prob somewhere just west of me. I hope the snowbomb is nowhere near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting how the snow kinda skipped over Long Island. Its that finger of overrunning snow via the ML frontogenesis out ahead of the main stuff. It showed up well on the earlier NAM runs...it was kind of weak, but enough to extend the front edge out to the east and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting how the snow kinda skipped over Long Island. This band of very light snow has been modeled for a few runs now to align near the Pike. It lifts north, but at the same time...those echoes down by Philly help to rapidly fill in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This band of very light snow has been modeled for a few runs now to align near the Pike. It lifts north, but at the same time...those echoes down by Philly help to rapidly fill in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is incredible, if nobody has seen it. KINL Partly Cloudy -40 °F (-40 °C)Humidity:NAWind Speed:CalmBarometer:30.06" (1023.4 mb)Dewpoint:NAVisibility:10.00 mi. Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around -46. Calm wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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