danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 where do we talk about the 00z gfs and what it's showing for next week?? that is rediculous!!! Yeah, that's a MONSTER Miller A right Thurr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Now the NMM old v new (again look at the heavier echoes in the SW...and the firehose aimed at SE NE in the new one). It looks too warm to me for the most part where this firehose is aimed, but if by miracle it ended up being colder someone will get smoked. That is some nastiness coming in from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 woops other map was old. NMM/ARW ugly after 12z. If we're going to say meso models are the way to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Like my 3-6" region wide call...perhaps a bit more BOS south and west. For those who missed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 By h18, the ARW is just down to some flurries/snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 woops other map was old. NMM/ARW ugly after 12z. If we're going to say meso models are the way to go.... One hell of a trailing cold front, though... all the way to Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Now the NMM old v new (again look at the heavier echoes in the SW...and the firehose aimed at SE NE in the new one). It looks too warm to me for the most part where this firehose is aimed, but if by miracle it ended up being colder someone will get smoked. That is some nastiness coming in from the ocean. I like that band being depicted in Western CT lol. It's been there on multiple models too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Now the NMM old v new (again look at the heavier echoes in the SW...and the firehose aimed at SE NE in the new one). It looks too warm to me for the most part where this firehose is aimed, but if by miracle it ended up being colder someone will get smoked. That is some nastiness coming in from the ocean. And how close the new looks to the American WRF. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 steady light snow for the last ten minutes. dusting on all surfaces. Tiny dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Like my 3-6" region wide call...perhaps a bit more BOS south and west. For those who missed it... Select cities ORH- 5.0" TOL- 5.5" MRG - 5.5" PYM- 3.0" TAN- 3.5" BOS- 5.5" GAY- 4.5" DED- 6.0" BEV- 7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One hell of a trailing cold front, though... all the way to Florida! And how close the new looks to the American WRF. Nice. The ARW totals will be ugly, it has one panel where 25 dbz echoes are anywhere in SNE and that's just down this way. The NMM is a little better for a panel. If the ARW is right as parents are working from home with light snow falling for a few hours, then the sun comes out...they'll be wondering why school was cancelled at 7pm Thursday. In a way I'm kind of hoping this busts low, maybe it'll end the madness of cancelling school 6-12 hours before the heavier precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 steady light snow for the last ten minutes. dusting on all surfaces. Tiny dendrites. Wow, I hadn't looked outside in about 15-20, same here! I'm surprised it covered everything so quick considering it is pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, I hadn't looked outside in about 15-20, same here! I'm surprised it covered everything so quick considering it is pixie dust. yep its basically pooring crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ARW totals will be ugly, it has one panel where 25 dbz echoes are anywhere in SNE and that's just down this way. The NMM is a little better for a panel. If the ARW is right as parents are working from home with light snow falling for a few hours, then the sun comes out...they'll be wondering why school was cancelled at 7pm Thursday. In a way I'm kind of hoping this busts low, maybe it'll end the madness of cancelling school 6-12 hours before the heavier precip arrives. Agreed..I don't understand the logic behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yep its basically pooring crystals. Yeah, we keep this up we'll get nice totals! Agreed..I don't understand the logic behind that. Once again I say it has much more to do with politics and ignorance than forecasts or actualized outcome. It is a lot easier to say cancel it, especially in this economic climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love this ne wind down here, snow growth must be pretty damn good, and from this light snow, ratios must be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not an expert but I think we can officially say (at least based on the 0z models) the "northern stream always digs more, NW trend at the last minute/meso models win, this that the other thing" FTL? I think it was the southern system driving the bus with the model volatility the last day or two, and when it crapped out so did all the models with it. Remains to be seen if this was right, RUC says no. Either way, in fairness I'm posting everything for the record as I think this can be a good case study for a system that came together despite the models, or that fell apart against inflated notions. Image is the ARW 24 accumulated precip, 12z was the heavy stuff, 0z is tonight. EDITED to add the NMM same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm thinking schools could open tomorrow...maybe a 1 or 2 hour delay? Might as well...looks like you'll need all the snow days you can muster for the rest of the winter. (next week for that matter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Agreed..I don't understand the logic behind that. I like to think that it's because in this day in age, most families have two working parents and by calling it earlier, it gives them a chance to figure something out rather than doing it last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I like to think that it's because in this day in age, most families have two working parents and by calling it earlier, it gives them a chance to figure something out rather than doing it last minute. Agreed...many parents will be ticked off if this ends up 3" of fluff followed by partial sun by 1PM though. Can never please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love this ne wind down here, snow growth must be pretty damn good, and from this light snow, ratios must be amazing. Radar looks like crap (and is so bad it is still in clean air mode) but we're squeezing something decent out of it. I am impressed and it may definitely bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think everyone focusing on all the models is missing a key point. ConvectiveFeedback started the thread for this set of model runs instead of Bob, the runs were doomed before they even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nice development over Maryland and it is starting to improve in eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I like to think that it's because in this day in age, most families have two working parents and by calling it earlier, it gives them a chance to figure something out rather than doing it last minute. Kev talked about mets not doing their job in not pointing out the higher possibilities. Same goes for not pointing out the lower. I had a friend tonight tell me he heard we were getting 6-12". I asked where he heard that, he said the web. I asked him to send me the web address...Hi Paul ...had no idea he was on here. Think it doesn't spread like wildfire and that the hype doesn't echo it does. As a working family it's great that they cancel early. But with a 4-6am start time and what was a slight trend downward that started at 18z, I don't get it. What are we teaching kids by folding at the slightest difficulty/bump in the road. The brutal cold Monday is likely to be a bigger threat to kids than this snow....I'd rather they call off school Monday. GFS ensembles are way east of the OP for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is what I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like HFD is now reporting light snow. There's a nice area of precip blossoming over MD and SE PA which I think will become the heavier stuff later tonight and early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 and just like that its done. lucky to get on the fringe waa, models did well with keeping it nw of the cities, just got lucky for a while.. long wait now per radar, hope all get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The RUC is hanging on to the old style solutions. ARW/NMM/NAM/MM5 are all east so meso fail maybe who knows. RUC is so warm that by the time the real precip gets in hear at 12z, 1000-850mb CT's are above the basic threshold into SE CT, a lot of RI and SE MA almost up to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 RUC not backing down, buries Boston/Ray etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What are we teaching kids by folding at the slightest difficulty/bump in the road. School districts may pull the trigger too soon, but: #1 If there were a watch, warning, or even an advisory, and a bus went off the road or such, God forbid, the school district would be up to it armpits in lawyers, without a leg to stand on. Administrators are positively panic-stricken at the mere thought of litigation -- hence all those zero-tolerance rules that make the news. #2 reason -- inexperienced drivers. In suburban/exurban/rural communities, a hundred sleep-deprived inexperienced young drivers, driving beaters, on balding tires, on snow.... it's not a calming thing to contemplate. See also #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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