Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the rev said 14-16 lollies in sne. hey... he took a shot. You over analyze things... NCEP says no model errors that degrade performance. They kind of skip this system entirely it would seem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. I feel better now (even if it is 4") GN, good luck for those who need to do this for $$$ Don't let the bustards get you down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will when do you see the "meaningful" snow period starting for Orh/ Bos? i'd guess 3-4am respectively? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. Fantastic post, thank you. I hope you slept while you were gone. And it was said earlier but what a band-y year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After analyzing this, it appears to me - fwiw - that the differences are centered around the timing/speed at which cyclogen takes place. The 18z is about 3-4 hours faster, and the previous 12z about 4-5 hours faster. Either way, this run is 3-5 hours fastrt with the system's movement as a whole while maintaining the same deepening rate - that limits the QPF. Is it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GN folks, was great discussing the storm with you, as always. Dream snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You are entirely correct on this one good sir. Today it has been atrocious. I really thought it had captured it again at 12z but nope. Amazing. Unlike some people I enjoy that part of the ride, too. It hasn't disappointed and has been fascinating even if it ends up breaking some hearts with the actual outcome. The system was a solid advisory and limited low-end warning event for some days ago...and that's what it is now. I still hope/think we can grab some nice ratios for some folks and see a couple strong totals. I've always been the biggest fan of the NAM. I always liked the ETA. it had it's moments of horror but the NGM would always be there with the reliable 700mb RH fields to count/discount the ETA. Something isn't right. My prediction is barring something getting squared away it'll be just as bad in subsequent patterns. Channel 4 has 4-7 for most everyone with the mix line way down here. Harvey has it raining passed Bob in the morning. 2-5 for me more for Bob but a jackpot just north 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 4-8 is most likely. There should be pretty solid ratios so even 0.30" is going to produce 4 or 5 inches. Someone will probably get lucky and pull off a nice lolli. But there have been a few things going against a 10-12" total... A) Vortmax core does not pass south of us...it either goes almost overhead or NW of us. B. Speed of system...this is a 6-8 hour event for the meaningful snow. C) No closed mid-level center (700mb)...this is related to the first point listed The caveats are... A) There's always exceptions....look at 12/23/97. B. There is some hint that banding will occur in this storm, so anyone who gets a nice band for a couple hours will cash in C) Small system with heavy dependency on vortmax interaction...so modeling will have trouble...which has been obvious by the flip flops we've seen in the past 36 hours. At any rate, this should be a fun system to nowcast. Won't be a huge event most likely, but a nice moderate snowfall with perhaps a few surprises up its sleeve. Great points you bring up as usual.. It will be fun Nowcasting this.. I'll be up early and throught the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Flakes are starting to fall....a bit before schedule does that mean we will get like 2" more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just watched Brad Field (NBC CT) cut back accums a bit from 5-10 at 6 PM to 4-8 inches. Wonder if by 6 AM Bob Maxon trims it back to his original forecast from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fantastic post, thank you. I hope you slept while you were gone. And it was said earlier but what a band-y year. I did sleep after the 18z NAM until about the 00z NAM...now I can take this home to the finish. I didn't sleep enough before last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HRRR coming around to a snowbomb for interior SE MA. Don't know if it's right, MM5 hints at something similar. I'll take 2-3" in an hour FTW....nice test of this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Go Maine! I was hoping it would look better on radar at this point. Kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will when do you see the "meaningful" snow period starting for Orh/ Bos? i'd guess 3-4am respectively? Yeah I think so...first flakes should be around 06z...but it will probably start as steady light snow. Should begin to pick up around 09z and the max should be from about 5-9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I did sleep after the 18z NAM until about the 00z NAM...now I can take this home to the finish. I didn't sleep enough before last storm. Good to hear, nice planning. You certainly did not. This should end quickly enough, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 first flakes are now falling in Fairfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just for the record, the HRRR....total snow accumulation. It's still snowing on the Cape but it's about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 first flakes are now falling in Fairfield. Yeah some snow flurries here in Greenwich as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 where do we talk about the 00z gfs and what it's showing for next week?? that is rediculous!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 welp, that about does it for 10+ prospects. In the end, I'm happy with my external forecasts. My AmWx internal forecast maps ... well ... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 where do we talk about the 00z gfs and what it's showing for next week?? that is rediculous!!! Finally a storm without a diddly dick 20 s/w complex that all need to combine perfectly....that's an awesome looking system that I'd love to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 where do we talk about the 00z gfs and what it's showing for next week?? that is rediculous!!! The total snowfall of your sig being lain in one run? ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br />Finally a storm without a diddly dick 20 s/w complex that all need to combine perfectly....that's an awesome looking system that I'd love to see.<br /><br /><br /><br />Impressive looking High coming down over the lakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Obligatory. And interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Obligatory. And interesting. How is that compared to earlier runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Obligatory. And interesting. American WRF did pretty well in the Jan 12 storm...showing a BOS to Ray jackpot this time. Decent chance thats where it will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How is that compared to earlier runs? Don't know but I like what it shows for eastern areas. I definitely need to remember this tomorrow to see how it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 American WRF did pretty well in the Jan 12 storm...showing a BOS to Ray jackpot this time. Decent chance thats where it will end up. It did, I remember checking it about now the night before. This is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ARW...old run (heavier in CT), new run (slamming intense precip into SE areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know it's the 150h GFS, but if those temps verified and I got anything other than snow, that would be cruel and unusual punishment on behalf of mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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