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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:30 AM, DomNH said:

Your cryptic posts are killing me.

It's doing what I talked about earlier when I was saying the NAM was trimming from the max in the SW and dispersing that in Maine.....think more of that.

It blows for the big snow some were hoping for if right. if Cape Cod can pull off a cold air miracle it'd be in good shape...

00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_012.jpg

00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:31 AM, messenger said:

It's doing what I talked about earlier when I was saying the NAM was trimming from the max in the SW and dispersing that in Maine.....think more of that.

It blows for the big snow some were hoping for if right. if Cape Cod can pull off a cold air miracle it'd be in good shape...

Looks like 10-15mm here, or .4-.6'' of QPF...5-8'' with fluff factor.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:15 AM, HubbDave said:

Does his still sometimes have a livecam from his house? That is funny to watch.

Sometimes he sounds like he is from downeast Maine

hahah I'm not sure if he still does but I agree. I only live about 5 minutes from him

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:30 AM, BDR said:

I can't see between 12z Friday and 00z Saturday obviously, but it doesn't look that bad.

Posted above...it's not terrible like you said, it's just not going to be a widespread 6-12" snow on the RGEM/NAM. Not without tremendous/epic ratios.

I'm eyeballing maybe .25 to .4 across most of the region, with maybe more right in the east.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:33 AM, DomNH said:

Looks like 10-15mm here, or .4-.6'' of QPF...5-8'' with fluff factor.

It's tough to tell looks like 2-5 for period one, 5 to 7.5 in period two...7 to 12.5 mm, around .4. CT it's pretty similar, but again tough to be exact.

Downeast gets pounded.

Not bad, but it's backing down gradually. Cape gets hit hard but it's toasty.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:40 AM, Ryan said:

Feeling much more settled now after seeing the GFS.... how often do I say that??

.4'' seems to be the magic QPF number...6'' of snow with the vaunted 15:1 ratios. I bet we see similar amounts to Tuesday's deal.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:41 AM, DomNH said:

.4'' seems to be the magic QPF number...6'' of snow with the vaunted 15:1 ratios. I bet we see similar amounts to Tuesday's deal.

Yeah I agree. I never really bought the 0.75-1" QPF from earlier today anyway. Either way the AM commute will be disastrous

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:40 AM, messenger said:

wait wait, we need to go with the meso models in this situation don't we, not the globals? LOL...just busting.

Just go with what ever model shows the most snow. It's OK because next week you'll be trashing that model until it shows the next major hit at day 7.

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  On 1/21/2011 at 3:43 AM, CT Rain said:

If I was going on air right now I'd keep my 4-8 as not to flip flop but my gut tells me 3-6 is the most likely scenario right now

Splitting hairs, really. Story of this storm is going to be its high impact, no matter the totals.

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