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1/21/11 Storm Discussion III


ConvectiveSolutions

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wxforecaster, had a whole dialog typed and of course the thread was locked.

In short I mostly agree. It's lagging. The 18z NAM was bogus - it developed a mess of a sheared structure. Doesn't exist now and will correct at 0h init. 12z NAM was better but was far too slow along the TX border with the s/w. GFS was decent overall. No doubt we see a shift tonight, tough to figure which way but the fact that the RUC is running over ACK. Every other system since 12/26 it's been warm/inside by now. A little surprsing that it's normal NW bias isn't in play.

Looks like we'll see a pretty intense band of precip develop well south of MVY later tonight and move up over the Cape at the same time the northwest precip shield is going pretty good. They combing over or just NE of EMA.

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All you need to know is that your map totals are too low and you are looking way way too deep into things and using only the NAM and GFS isn't going to cut it

Using only the NAM? Dude, if I went by the NAM I'd have like 8-12''

I just don't feel confident in widespread 6''+ totals with the 850mb circulation closing off to our NE. Plus look at the RH fields at H7...they dry out when the models still show significant QPF over us...I just think it blossoms too late for us to get more than 3-6'' widespread with some isolated higher amounts in NE CT.

On facebook I just left the door open to increasing totals tonight but I want to see some model show the 850 circulation closing off either over us or just to our SW.

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