k*** Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is this the official NOGAPS thread for the rest of the winter or just this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 what are you talking about? its posted/talked all the time all four runs. It got some credit last week and it was brought up this week. sadly, as good as it was 4 days out last week, it totally lost the storm from 3 days in. and in regards to tonight, the nogaps has been all over the place. anyway, too much time being spent talking about this model. enjoy this thread while it lasts. Which storm are you talking about? This one? If so it never lost the storm as the other guidance came to its thinking as well... By the way this is from my discussion on the 8th of the month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Current surface pressure for this system tonight & tomorrow.. 3 hr pressure falls... Greatest pressure falls PA/MD border region Last nights nogaps The only model at that point and time to show low pressure at the PA/MD border...(until the 18 Z runs today of course) Just another illustration of the NOGAPS ....when used properly as a tool ... 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow.....There's actually a NOGAPS thread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hmmm.. doesn't look like the NOGAPS is doing too bad as of lately in the la nina winter if I do say so myself... It's the worst one of the bunch hemisphere-wide. your point? BTW, here's the five year mean...it's not "much" better than it has been over the past five years. http://www.emc.ncep....l/aczhist6.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This thread is almost cult like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS just BOWED to the NOGAPS? Hmmm... looks like me and matt tried to explain this to a certain number of members that didn't want to use the NOGAPS as a tool, but rather wanted to just bash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone want to inform me why the GFS just went towards the NOGAPS? Is this not what i am been talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Someone want to inform me why the GFS just went towards the NOGAPS? Is this not what i am been talking about? Dude..the storm is 150 hours out. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dude..the storm is 150 hours out. Get a grip. What i think he is saying is that when the NOGAPS is west, and the other major models are east, since the NOGAPS is so east bias, it is a signal that the other models are too far to the east. i've been following it too on many events in the long range this winter and it is remarkable how the Nogaps has sniffed it out before the other major models. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dude..the storm is 150 hours out. Get a grip. I asked a simple question...is this not what i was talking about? At that time I was told there was no support... However...that simply was not true... The DGEX was similar.. The JMA was similar.... The ECM also showed this solution before...but lost it....& has now found it again! GFS never showed this solution before...but found it... GGEM now shows amped & west! The NOGAPS has been showing the more western solution consistently (granted i did not check tonights yet) That is what this thread is about ..is the NOGAPS and how its performing & being that it has been showing a much more west & AMPED track & the GFS just went towards it...it supports the tool being used .... Not saying its going to happen ..but heck I have only been forecasting this type of scenario for over 48 hrs now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Dude..the storm is 150 hours out. Get a grip. I'm wondering how one model 120 hours out can "bow" to another model when neither model may ultimately be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm wondering how one model 120 hours out can "bow" to another model when neither model may ultimately be right. Simple answer for a simple question but i will do it in question form as well. Which model has been consistently further NW? Answer is NOGAPS Which models were all east at 12 Z or southeast? Answer ..GFS/GGEM/ECM/UKMET Which models came west at 00z? GFS/GGEM/ECM/UKMET Which model had the further NW track that all the rest of guidance trended to? If you said NOGAPS..that would be correct & it stays consistent with the western solution just not as far west (thru Central PA at 00z) which i already mentioned 2 hrs ago that that was to far to the west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 why do we have a NOGAPS thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Apparently, the 12z NOGAPS came well east to continue the trend from the 6z. Im waiting for the maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 why do we have a NOGAPS thread? My thoughts exactly. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Which model made a rather large shift between 0z and 12z today and now isn't consistent with the western solution? Yeah, you guessed it...the NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Which model made a rather large shift between 0z and 12z today and now isn't consistent with the western solution? Yeah, you guessed it...the NOGAPS! ROFL you guys just don't get it do you.. The NOGAPS all ready did its job as a forecasting tool.. The NOGAPS has a well known S&E progressive bias.. When the NOGAPS is well west with a storm, the other models should be flagged and come west on future runs As with the current storm, and the past 2 before it, the NOGAPS was well north west with the low of the system and the other models followed After the other models come west the NOGAPS typically goes back to its plain old self and displays its SE bias.. Lots of other models have come west after the NOGAPS flagged them to do so, and when they came west at 12z the NOGAPS simply just went back to its SE bias In no way shape or form are we saying the NOGAPS is the best model or is a great model - we are saying that it is a great forecasting TOOL when its bias's are applied in the correct way. Which so far this winter, has not failed when the NOGAPS was further west than other models the other models trended to it and then the NOGAPS goes back to its bias.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS has trended east, as well as the GGEM ensembles-- let's see who follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS has trended east, as well as the GGEM ensembles-- let's see who follows suit. GFS listed as an OUTLIER by HPC... GGEM OP well west.. Hell even the 18z NOGAPS came back west. Let's see who follows who. EDIT: Oh and by the way.. GGEM ensembles trended west from 0z last night 0z GGEM ensemble 12z GGEM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ROFL you guys just don't get it do you.. The NOGAPS all ready did its job as a forecasting tool.. The NOGAPS has a well known S&E progressive bias.. When the NOGAPS is well west with a storm, the other models should be flagged and come west on future runs As with the current storm, and the past 2 before it, the NOGAPS was well north west with the low of the system and the other models followed After the other models come west the NOGAPS typically goes back to its plain old self and displays its SE bias.. Lots of other models have come west after the NOGAPS flagged them to do so, and when they came west at 12z the NOGAPS simply just went back to its SE bias In no way shape or form are we saying the NOGAPS is the best model or is a great model - we are saying that it is a great forecasting TOOL when its bias's are applied in the correct way. Which so far this winter, has not failed when the NOGAPS was further west than other models the other models trended to it and then the NOGAPS goes back to its bias.. no, I get it. No model "follows" or trends or caves to the NOGAPS. The NOGAPS may bias a certain way at various points but models do not follow each other around like dogs sniffing each other's butts, especially when the NOGAPS ends up chasing its tail many times with storms as they trend closer. Just because it may show the correct solution for a run or two does not mean it's a trusted model nor does it "lead the way" very often nor does it show that models "trend" to it, especially since the Euro and GFS have been generally showing storm near/off the East Coast for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 no, I get it. No model "follows" or trends or caves to the NOGAPS. The NOGAPS may bias a certain way at various points but models do not follow each other around like dogs sniffing each other's butts, especially when the NOGAPS ends up chasing its tail many times with storms as they trend closer. Just because it may show the correct solution for a run or two does not mean it's a trusted model nor does it "lead the way" very often nor does it show that models "trend" to it, especially since the Euro and GFS have been generally showing storm near/off the East Coast for several runs. Incorrect again... Do you even bother to look at the guidance ? Show me the money was a phrase from Jerry McGuire! In this case show me where the ECM is off the coast? I will save you the time ..ok... 12 Z today looks inland to me.... Maybe it was last nights ECM? Guess not.... Maybe its todays 12 Z ECM means... Guess I was wrong again.. Interesting assessment you have of the ECM there i do believe.... Now the GFS you would be correct on but the GFS is alone...(also discarded by HPC) 12 Z GGEM means came west..... 12 Z GFS means were west..... The GFS is much quicker with the system then the rest of the guidance. Meanwhile ..a model with a more progressive bias then the GFS...is taking the low pressure over CAPE MAY NJ...AKA ECM.... So, what support does the faster solution of the GFS actually have? Look off the coast here? Final HPC using the ECM/Means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Incorrect again... No... near/off the East Coast for several runs Your reading comprehension failed you. FWIW, I'm not saying that either the GFS or Euro will ultimately be correct...I am right though in that the model guidance from both the GFS and EURO has been suggesting a storm near (which the EURO is NEAR the East Coast) or off of the East Coast the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 No... [/size][/font][/color] Your reading comprehension failed you. Near would be close to the coast ..considered as off the coast AKA coastal hugger Inland would be on land.... ECM is on land! The fact of the matter remains NOGAPS minus one run has shown west...while the rest were east...and they all came back west but the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Near would be close to the coast ..considered as off the coast A storm can be on land and be near the coast. I can be in South Jersey driving on the GSP and be "near" the coast while on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 A storm can be on land and be near the coast. I can be in South Jersey driving on the GSP and be "near" the coast while on land. especially since the Euro and GFS have been generally showing storm near/off the East Coast for several runs. ECM has been inland and not off the coast..it does not come off the coast until after it is on level with Delaware which then it moves NE from that position. Last night it took it over Cape May NJ...again that does not sound like off the coast nor look like off the coast.... And it still does nothing to dispell the fact that a more progressive model then the GFS is west of the GFS...and in line with the ECM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EC now going east also. I wouldnt bring up HPC this season. We'd been talking about this for a few days- a delayed storm isnt a bad thing because the next Arctic high comes to replace the one that's departing. This is a winter that's going to dominated by Arctic highs and blocking, as if we weren't aware of that already Some people have chosen to ignore the fact that the blocking is getting stronger on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 EC now going east also. I wouldnt bring up HPC this season. We'd been talking about this for a few days- a delayed storm isnt a bad thing because the next Arctic high comes to replace the one that's departing. This is a winter that's going to dominated by Arctic highs and blocking, as if we weren't aware of that already Some people have chosen to ignore the fact that the blocking is getting stronger on every run. One problem that I have.... Now....I am not sure how I can make anyone understand this any clearer then what i am going to this go around. GFS we know has a progressive bias. Can we agree here? So arguing a progressive bias would argue that it would be south and east in a coastal storm situation and could be that way up until 72 and under. And we potentially see that bias in place today as we seen the GFS actually come in more amped then its previous runs and digging the trough deeper. Here is the GFS at 102 and as i said one could easily argue that it is showing its south and east bias. Or one could easily argue that since its going back more amplified it could actually be going back towards the solution that was easily wrapped up? Agree? Now when we look at the rest of the guidance ...we see the GGEM is west ...and has a bomb , on the warm side..but then the GGEM can have a warm bias as well... 12 Z UKMET also has a strong storm and is a flag to the ECM because it is further to the west then the ECM appears to be from the play by play that I have written. So basically without even talking about the NOGAPS yet we have a stronger..slower solution on two of the models (GGEM & UKMET) and another model (GFS) that is becoming slower & stronger & much further SW compared to its previous run. Compare 6 Z 108 versus 12 Z 102 and you get the comparison to what i said above. Now lets suppose that blocking is in place ..because that is the seasonal trend.. which it has been but does not mean that because it has been that it will be in every particular instance of a storm. For sake of discussion lets suppose blocking is in place and we have a stronger high pressure over and north of Maine... Which looking at this image above we see a high to the west and we see a high pressure to the east with some semblance of a connection to each other. If that high pressure is stronger then what most models have it...could that or would that not argue for a slower & stronger & more amplified system? Now...lets finally turn attention to the Nogaps... We see at 108 hrs that the low pressure is alot further to the SW then say for example the ECM which by 96 hrs has it all the way up off the MD coastline.... We seen with this most recent past system that the low pressure actually went up into C PA before reforming off the coast along the coast of SNJ. The only model that showed that NW track was indeed the NOGAPS until the 00z runs of the night while the storm was already in progress and it was snowing outside. If the GFS progressive bias is leading to a South and East solution (though i believe its still catching up) ...& we know that the NOGAPS definitely has a south and east and even more progressive bias then the GFS...then one has to ask themselves : Why is this very progressive southeast biased model actually slower then for example the GFS/ECM? I guess that gives you something to think on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great Post !!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great Post !!!!!!! i agree. well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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