RU848789 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Saw some discussion in the regular obs threads about whether there should be winter storm warnings for this event, when 3-5" are expected and it got me to look up the criteria and I was reminded of the jump from 4" to 6" (in 12 hours) in the criteria across south-central NJ to Philly to NE MD. In looking at the Eastern Region criteria for WS Warnings, it's the only place where the criteria jumps in a 2" increment, which doesn't really make sense to me - everywhere else in the region, the jumps are in 1" increments. I would think, at least, that there would be a tier of counties in between the 4" and 6" criteria, i.e., perhaps Monmouth, Mercer, Bucks, Montgomery and Chester (and maybe Middlesex) might be a 5" criteria tier, separating the 4" area from the 6" area. Not only does this inconsistency look odd, but also, I just don't think it makes sense to have that much of a difference in criteria between Ocean and Monmouth or Philadelphia and Montgomery Counties, for example - sure the further north/west counties should have a greater criterion, but just not a 2" jump. In my opinion. Anyone from the NWS able to shed some light on this? Thanks... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/WinterMaps/12hrsnwwrng.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I still can't figure out why so many people make such a big deal about warnings vs advisories. What difference does it make if 5 inches is an advisory or a warning? It's still 5 inches when all is said and done. I really think for some folks, being under a warning is like some kind of status symbol. It's as if they feel they got screwed out of a good storm if they're only under an advisory as opposed to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I still can't figure out why so many people make such a big deal about warnings vs advisories. What difference does it make if 5 inches is an advisory or a warning? It's still 5 inches when all is said and done. I really think for some folks, being under a warning is like some kind of status symbol. It's as if they feel they got screwed out of a good storm if they're only under an advisory as opposed to a warning. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This. Double this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's true. It does seem to make it a more memorable event if you get that warning. Same thing as upgrading to a blizzard warning or not regardless of whether it verifies. I still say the impact is far more important. Does NYC need an advisory when its going to snow 5" in March on a saturday during daylight hours with temps in the 30s and little chance of sticking to pavement? or a 2" snow when it falls heavily during morning rush on a 20 degree weekday morning. I had a worse commute last year on new year's eve from an inch and a half than any of the other storms we had due to the intensity, timing and lack of warning and also people thinking an inch or two of snow doesn't mean much....Would an advisory have really made a difference, probably not but was still warranted. I still can't figure out why so many people make such a big deal about warnings vs advisories. What difference does it make if 5 inches is an advisory or a warning? It's still 5 inches when all is said and done. I really think for some folks, being under a warning is like some kind of status symbol. It's as if they feel they got screwed out of a good storm if they're only under an advisory as opposed to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wonder what the criteria level is in Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Double this Triple this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wonder what the criteria level is in Florida... the map doesnt extend there for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All I will say at this point is the warning/advisory criteria maps were initially put together I heard back in the '90s. There has been little changes made to them since. If I understand correctly, the numbers were basically set based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw some discussion in the regular obs threads about whether there should be winter storm warnings for this event, when 3-5" are expected and it got me to look up the criteria and I was reminded of the jump from 4" to 6" (in 12 hours) in the criteria across south-central NJ to Philly to NE MD. In looking at the Eastern Region criteria for WS Warnings, it's the only place where the criteria jumps in a 2" increment, which doesn't really make sense to me - everywhere else in the region, the jumps are in 1" increments. I would think, at least, that there would be a tier of counties in between the 4" and 6" criteria, i.e., perhaps Monmouth, Mercer, Bucks, Montgomery and Chester (and maybe Middlesex) might be a 5" criteria tier, separating the 4" area from the 6" area. Not only does this inconsistency look odd, but also, I just don't think it makes sense to have that much of a difference in criteria between Ocean and Monmouth or Philadelphia and Montgomery Counties, for example - sure the further north/west counties should have a greater criterion, but just not a 2" jump. In my opinion. Anyone from the NWS able to shed some light on this? Thanks... http://www.erh.noaa....12hrsnwwrng.jpg This has been historically the numbers used as criteria dating back to at least the 1980s. When we started forecasting for central New Jersey, there was a suggestion of changing Monmouth to 4", which was opposed and stopped because of it historically being 6" and also would cause confusion in the NY Media market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I still can't figure out why so many people make such a big deal about warnings vs advisories. What difference does it make if 5 inches is an advisory or a warning? It's still 5 inches when all is said and done. I really think for some folks, being under a warning is like some kind of status symbol. It's as if they feel they got screwed out of a good storm if they're only under an advisory as opposed to a warning. Quadrupole this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This has been historically the numbers used as criteria dating back to at least the 1980s. When we started forecasting for central New Jersey, there was a suggestion of changing Monmouth to 4", which was opposed and stopped because of it historically being 6" and also would cause confusion in the NY Media market. I wonder if Western Monmouth should be separated, or if a 5" buffer zone should be added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wonder if Western Monmouth should be separated, or if a 5" buffer zone should be added. It is not that confusing leave things the way they are, based on climatology of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wonder what the criteria level is in Florida... Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Flurries? Wrong. 32F with a brisk Northerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was always under the impression that it had something to do with how well equipped townships and municipalities were with handling snow accumilation removal from the roads. I will say that there is a major difference with how people go about their business during snowstorms up here in the Poconos compared to where I used to live in Southern New Jersey. 5 or 6" of snow does not dominate the news up here and I cannot count how many times each winter where a 1-3" snow fall happens and it's not even talked about. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think warning criteria for coastal NJ should be 4", and further inland around ILG and Philly should be 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw some discussion in the regular obs threads about whether there should be winter storm warnings for this event, when 3-5" are expected and it got me to look up the criteria and I was reminded of the jump from 4" to 6" (in 12 hours) in the criteria across south-central NJ to Philly to NE MD. In looking at the Eastern Region criteria for WS Warnings, it's the only place where the criteria jumps in a 2" increment, which doesn't really make sense to me - everywhere else in the region, the jumps are in 1" increments. I would think, at least, that there would be a tier of counties in between the 4" and 6" criteria, i.e., perhaps Monmouth, Mercer, Bucks, Montgomery and Chester (and maybe Middlesex) might be a 5" criteria tier, separating the 4" area from the 6" area. Not only does this inconsistency look odd, but also, I just don't think it makes sense to have that much of a difference in criteria between Ocean and Monmouth or Philadelphia and Montgomery Counties, for example - sure the further north/west counties should have a greater criterion, but just not a 2" jump. In my opinion. Anyone from the NWS able to shed some light on this? Thanks... http://www.erh.noaa....12hrsnwwrng.jpg All I will say at this point is the warning/advisory criteria maps were initially put together I heard back in the '90s. There has been little changes made to them since. If I understand correctly, the numbers were basically set based on climo. This has been historically the numbers used as criteria dating back to at least the 1980s. When we started forecasting for central New Jersey, there was a suggestion of changing Monmouth to 4", which was opposed and stopped because of it historically being 6" and also would cause confusion in the NY Media market. Tony/Mike - kind of what I suspected - a vestige of an old system. Let me put you on the spot a little bit, though: do you think it makes any sense to have that steep of a change? If it were climatology based, then Philly would have at least a 5" criterion, given that Baltimore and DC have 5" criteria and they average less snow than Philly. Maybe the better answer is to have a 5" tier that is somewhat consistent, climatologically, with the Balt/DC office 5" tier, something like Cecil (MD), Newcastle (DE), Delaware, Philadelphia, Northern Burlington and inland Ocean; this tier would be the transition from 4" to 6" criteria in NJ/PA/DE/MD. I know this isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things (and I have no clue why people are trolling this thread about people making a big deal about warnings vs. advisories - this thread is intended merely to discuss the mostly academic issue of what the criterion should be vs. geography and/or climatology), but it also seems like it's an inconsistency that would be simple to change to better reflect reality/climatology. Also, just noticed the same issue in SW Ohio. Nowhere else in the Eastern Region does the criteria make a 2" jump across adjacent counties. Anyway, would be interested to hear more. And while we're at it, another great job on the forecast this morning. Pretty much verified, except where the warm nose intruded in South Jersey. I guess I would've been pretty bummed about it when I was 14 and growing up in Washington Twp (Gloucester County), but nailing that level of detail is, I imagine, almost impossible, given the complexity and limitations in the models. Still cracks me up how people will freak over 2" of snow "missing" but not miss a beat when a rainstorm underperforms or they miss the incredibly stochastic summertime thunderstorms in their town. But that's why they pay you guys the big bucks I guess. :>) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wrong. 32F with a brisk Northerly wind. just rollin in ....than out of subforum. but when i lived in SFL the criteria for the blue hairs to break out their finest fur coats was a low below 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think the locations of watches and warnings (and the underlying criteria for each) should be decided by polls on internet weather boards. Remember, you can't shovel a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't see why 4 vs 6 is considered a big diff in snow total. In fact the only reason is probably the arbitrary criteria. If statewide it was 7 then no one would care about 4 vs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tony/Mike - kind of what I suspected - a vestige of an old system. Let me put you on the spot a little bit, though: do you think it makes any sense to have that steep of a change? If it were climatology based, then Philly would have at least a 5" criterion, given that Baltimore and DC have 5" criteria and they average less snow than Philly. Maybe the better answer is to have a 5" tier that is somewhat consistent, climatologically, with the Balt/DC office 5" tier, something like Cecil (MD), Newcastle (DE), Delaware, Philadelphia, Northern Burlington and inland Ocean; this tier would be the transition from 4" to 6" criteria in NJ/PA/DE/MD. I know this isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things (and I have no clue why people are trolling this thread about people making a big deal about warnings vs. advisories - this thread is intended merely to discuss the mostly academic issue of what the criterion should be vs. geography and/or climatology), but it also seems like it's an inconsistency that would be simple to change to better reflect reality/climatology. Also, just noticed the same issue in SW Ohio. Nowhere else in the Eastern Region does the criteria make a 2" jump across adjacent counties. Anyway, would be interested to hear more. And while we're at it, another great job on the forecast this morning. Pretty much verified, except where the warm nose intruded in South Jersey. I guess I would've been pretty bummed about it when I was 14 and growing up in Washington Twp (Gloucester County), but nailing that level of detail is, I imagine, almost impossible, given the complexity and limitations in the models. Still cracks me up how people will freak over 2" of snow "missing" but not miss a beat when a rainstorm underperforms or they miss the incredibly stochastic summertime thunderstorms in their town. But that's why they pay you guys the big bucks I guess. :>) I wish I remembered how the 5" came about for Sterling's WFO. The opportunity to change amounts occurred in the 90s when we went from mention of an amount as justification of a warning to county average amounts. This probably was in line with the elimination of established forecast zones and going to individual county zone forecasts that can be grouped based on the meteorology. I was told its not a simple process to change warning criteria. Its kind of ironic to think (given the winters the last 10 years) that NYC historically averaged about one 6 inch event per winter season. Thank-you for your kind words, yeah its amazing the difference you hear from "blowing" a snow event by two-tenths of an inch water equivalent vs a similar rain event in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.