Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 He is extremely worried because he said when you have a back to back La Nina...the 2nd La Nina is usually colder than the first. And since this First has been so cold, he shutters about next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return. What would be more amusing would be to keep the PNA+ and get the massive-NAO to return, see Dons pinned thread. Ji JB could not get Jan right on the last week of Dec, how are you going to believe his thoughts about next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I haven't kept close track, but isn't the ENSO expected to be relatively neutral next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return. What about the -PDO and lack of sunspots? And global temps are on the way down this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What about the -PDO and lack of sunspots? And global temps are on the way down this year. I'm talking about regional weather not global weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I haven't kept close track, but isn't the ENSO expected to be relatively neutral next winter? Depends on what you look at / believe, but some models/methods are forecasting nino3.4 to go slightly positive by late summer/fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Depends on what you look at / believe, but some models/methods are forecasting nino3.4 to go slightly positive by late summer/fall. Looks like IRI is favoring neutral, but I know there are many methods employed. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here is a link to a video of his from the free site in which he explains his views. Finally we can actually watch him explain, then comment. http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?-more-cold-to-follow.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like IRI is favoring neutral, but I know there are many methods employed. http://iri.columbia....fo/figure3.html Given how often moderate/strong La Niñas run back-to-back (or sometimes longer), 2007-08 being an exception, I would suspect that some kind of La Niña is probably more likely than a neutral ENSO/El Niño winter in 2011-12. The CFS hints at another La Niña. Having said that, modeled ENSO forecasts from this far out have a high error rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So most forecasts are for neutral to Weak Nino conditions by the end of the year and JB says another Nina winter. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Given how often moderate/strong La Niñas run back-to-back (or sometimes longer), 2007-08 being an exception, I would suspect that some kind of La Niña is probably more likely than a neutral ENSO/El Niño winter in 2011-12. The CFS hints at another La Niña. Having said that, modeled ENSO forecasts from this far out have a high error rate. Don, looking back at some of those old analogs during periods of solar minima, we get some really cold winters with these multiyear la ninas. I wonder if the analogs will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.