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JB is calling for a severely cold winter next year


Ji

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Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. :P

Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return.

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Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. :P

Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return.

What would be more amusing would be to keep the PNA+ and get the massive-NAO to return, see Dons pinned thread.

Ji JB could not get Jan right on the last week of Dec, how are you going to believe his thoughts about next year?

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Really besides the last week and a half.. the reason this winter has been cold was do to the massive -nao we had in December and the beginning of January. The only reason were still somewhat cold now is because of the +PNA pattern. :P

Would be slightly amusing if we start to loose the +PNA pattern only to get the massive -NAO to return.

What about the -PDO and lack of sunspots? And global temps are on the way down this year.

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Looks like IRI is favoring neutral, but I know there are many methods employed.

http://iri.columbia....fo/figure3.html

Given how often moderate/strong La Niñas run back-to-back (or sometimes longer), 2007-08 being an exception, I would suspect that some kind of La Niña is probably more likely than a neutral ENSO/El Niño winter in 2011-12. The CFS hints at another La Niña. Having said that, modeled ENSO forecasts from this far out have a high error rate.

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Given how often moderate/strong La Niñas run back-to-back (or sometimes longer), 2007-08 being an exception, I would suspect that some kind of La Niña is probably more likely than a neutral ENSO/El Niño winter in 2011-12. The CFS hints at another La Niña. Having said that, modeled ENSO forecasts from this far out have a high error rate.

Don, looking back at some of those old analogs during periods of solar minima, we get some really cold winters with these multiyear la ninas. I wonder if the analogs will hold.

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