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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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PoconoD

PoconoD

Posted
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And just to keep these past two winters grounded, as in outside of the norms, I have lived in the northeast for about 8 years, and these are the only 2 years I recall being even close, albeit greater, in total snowfall than the Poconos. The Poconos elevations heavily favor them to more marginal situations, reforming Miller B's. etc. I recall many times a few winters ago where places in the Poconos got hammered with 2 feet when the LV got 6 inches of sleet. The Poconos snow chances last easily into April as well. Yes it can be frustrating for now, but in the long run, the law of averages wins out.

You are correct. Last year at my house in the Southern Poconos we received almost 90" and a lot of places just to the south were substantially less.

D

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
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a dusting here in Easton. Very light snow falling.

Btw, ran out of room to put all the snow. So if we get hit hard again next week, we're screwed over this way lol.

I also know its a toss up with some on the left side and some on the right about splitting the LV folks from NYC/PHL threads - but I think it would be a good idea to split them as well. Like Sunny and Warm said - pointless posting in the NYC thread and whereas there are good people in the PHL thread - our voices are drained out up here. Not just that, but I honestly found this thread very enjoyable, informative and collaborating seemed spot on and its just good to talk to people from the area.

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Boreal

Boreal

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a dusting here in Easton. Very light snow falling.

Btw, ran out of room to put all the snow. So if we get hit hard again next week, we're screwed over this way lol.

I also know its a toss up with some on the left side and some on the right about splitting the LV folks from NYC/PHL threads - but I think it would be a good idea to split them as well. Like Sunny and Warm said - pointless posting in the NYC thread and whereas there are good people in the PHL thread - our voices are drained out up here. Not just that, but I honestly found this thread very enjoyable, informative and collaborating seemed spot on and its just good to talk to people from the area.

Agree, on all fronts. Would like to see if we could get a little more Met. participation in here though.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

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Light snow falling. Looking at the radar we'll probably get a little under an inch today, breaking 30 inches for the season.

Only a couple inches from "normal" for the year, and we still have the b ig months to go. Although, I sense a coming warmup starting mid-month, and if pattern switches hold true, we may be shutdown snow-wise the last half of winter. I hope not, but my sense is that La Nina is rearing its typical winter head.

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
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Agree, on all fronts. Would like to see if we could get a little more Met. participation in here though.

Lets start with the next storm 2/1-2/4 since it looks like we are in the bullseye for serious weather. Need to know how you guys feel heavy snow with initial overrunning event turning sleet/snow and maybe freezing rain. My initial thoughts 6-10" of snow turning to sleet and freezing rain with less than .50 of freezing rain for a fine crust on the snow Thoughts?.

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

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Lets start with the next storm 2/1-2/4 since it looks like we are in the bullseye for serious weather. Need to know how you guys feel heavy snow with initial overrunning event turning sleet/snow and maybe freezing rain. My initial thoughts 6-10" of snow turning to sleet and freezing rain with less than .50 of freezing rain for a fine crust on the snow Thoughts?.

Too early for me to guess. I do believe we'll get a front end snow to sleet/zr. Unless this cuts west, we remain in frozen precip throughout. This is typical for an event where the low passing south and east, but the air aloft is warm. At this early juncture, I don't see enough precip to warrant what you see as 1.0" to 1.5" of qpf (6-10" of wet snow plus 0.5" of ice). I'd start with half those amounts and revise as needed.

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Boreal

Boreal

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Snippet from Mt. Holly's recent Special Weather Statement on the clipper:

"...SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING UP TO ABOUT AN INCH. SINCE MANY PRIMARY ROADS SILL HAVE SOME SALT ON THEM, THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SEEN ON GRASSY SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS."

just made me :)

scover.gif

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jdt

jdt

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Definitley looks interesting next week. Way to early to get specific. I am sure the band of qpf and the corresponding precip types will flux north and south some over the coming days of model runs. Snow ice and or rain chances seem pretty high. Again, it is early but the chance of a signicifant ice storm is one possibility to give thought too. A day or two of causal tracking with some rest then we get back to detailed tracking Sunday! BTW 8.9" here with the past event.

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chrisNJ

chrisNJ

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Icy mess come for us Wednesday in the LV. Snow starts Tuesday evening, a few inches. Then heavier snow Wednesday changing to sleet and then prolonged freezing rain with temps never getting above 28. I will guess 6 inches of snow, then 0.5 inches of sleet, then bad icing on top. Travel will be terrible Wednesday all day.

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jdt

jdt

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Icy mess come for us Wednesday in the LV. Snow starts Tuesday evening, a few inches. Then heavier snow Wednesday changing to sleet and then prolonged freezing rain with temps never getting above 28. I will guess 6 inches of snow, then 0.5 inches of sleet, then bad icing on top. Travel will be terrible Wednesday all day.

The sounding data will tell the final details verbatim of snow to sleet to ice with the whens and how much of each. Regardless the idea of the GFS screams bad ice storm after a dump of some snow and sleet. And insult to injury is it brings in cold temps right behind it. LV, NW NJ the Poconos and interior SE NY. Yikes. Further north and west less ice more snow and or sleet. But alas just one run of one model. More changes and shifts, trends, adjustments before we know the details.

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chrisNJ

chrisNJ

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The sounding data will tell the final details verbatim of snow to sleet to ice with the whens and how much of each. Regardless the idea of the GFS screams bad ice storm after a dump of some snow and sleet. And insult to injury is it brings in cold temps right behind it. LV, NW NJ the Poconos and interior SE NY. Yikes. Further north and west less ice more snow and or sleet. But alas just one run of one model. More changes and shifts, trends, adjustments before we know the details.

Well, living in the LV for about 7 years, I've seen these similar scenarios. At times forecasts will say the LV eventually changes to rain, but it never comes close to happening. Going to be nasty IMO. I'll likely be staying home from work on Wednesday, which just happens to be my birthday anyway.

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Grothar

Grothar

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Icy mess come for us Wednesday in the LV. Snow starts Tuesday evening, a few inches. Then heavier snow Wednesday changing to sleet and then prolonged freezing rain with temps never getting above 28. I will guess 6 inches of snow, then 0.5 inches of sleet, then bad icing on top. Travel will be terrible Wednesday all day.

I say your close but add 2-4 inches of snow to Wed. morning before the changeover if the winds go SE in the late afternoon and freezing drizzle as a crunch than back to snow for another couple of inches.

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jdt

jdt

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Well I just got to my moms house in Wall NJ and I am in complete AWE over the glacier on the front yard..has to be well over 2 feet snow depth..will take pictures and measure tomorrow...I left Pittston with 2 inches of snow cover and arrived at the Jersey Shore to at least 24 inches.

Something wrong with that picture. It is like we are in an alter snow universe or something. lol

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Grothar

Grothar

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Our NYC posters are crying that they will be flooded with the upcoming snowmelt. I said this four days ago in our thread that this would happen. Their wish for more heavy snow is going to bite them hard. Our 12"-16" snow base will hold the rain if it does come. All I can say, no matter whatever the outcome of Wed storm, everything will be frozen and locked tight. by next Sunday with the record cold wave. Again I emphasize as I been saying all winter long, that ice jam floods will be severe, that roof eaves will collapse with the weight of the ice jams in the gutters and water mains are going to burst everywhere, especially in NYC and PHL. I hope you get your OJ now, because the orange crops maybe finished in Fla. This is going to be a bad cold snap. By the way record heating oil prices with shortages are coming tooyikes.png

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mcgin

mcgin

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Our NYC posters are crying that they will be flooded with the upcoming snowmelt. I said this four days ago in our thread that this would happen. Their wish for more heavy snow is going to bite them hard. Our 12"-16" snow base will hold the rain if it does come. All I can say, no matter whatever the outcome of Wed storm, everything will be frozen and locked tight. by next Sunday with the record cold wave. Again I emphasize as I been saying all winter long, that ice jam floods will be severe, that roof eaves will collapse with the weight of the ice jams in the gutters and water mains are going to burst everywhere, especially in NYC and PHL. I hope you get your OJ now, because the orange crops maybe finished in Fla. This is going to be a bad cold snap. By the way record heating oil prices with shortages are coming tooyikes.png

Could you take a guess on the highs/lows for the cold snap? I mean are you talking records being broken type cold?

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lab94

lab94

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i am getting worried about a big ice storm here. If the gfs is right, has me getting a few inchs of snow followed by .50-.70" of ZR falling in mid 20's temp. It hits 32 when the precip is over but at this range models are usualy a tad warm. OK so after all this ice we drop below 0! So we could have thousands or more people with out power and below 0 temps. Nothing set in stone but thats what I am getting concerned about. So much so, I ordered 2 more tons of pellets for the stove. (need them soon anyway, just thought to get them before theres a rush)

My linhttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFWN&submit.x=13&submit.y=10k

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