Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

[Boreal]

This...the back edge is already starting to swing through western PA--the heavier echoes moving due north out of VA will continue to collapse as they race north and get transferred to the coastal. The northern fringe will continue to erode away so for all of us in my neck of the woods who thinks we are about to have a few inch hit out of this, its very deceiving. Convective bands will set up for a few hours over the Delaware Valley--folks in Delaware Water Gap and south along the river will cash in. You should get 3-4 inches out of it. Places north and west again will probably see flurries at best. Imagine a skater pulling their arms in during a twist--she spins faster, but the extent of her body does not reach as far outward.

Generally, I agree, and posted something to that effect earlier today. And, until about the last hour, the radar trends in the western to central portion of PA indicated that out. However, the more recent returns indicate a more northward push (and more robust echoes) to that area of steady snow. Whether the convection to the southeast, along with redevelopment, stops that recent "trend" remains to be seen. I guess you could say, still holding out hope. Tough year up here.

[PoconoD]

This...the back edge is already starting to swing through western PA--the heavier echoes moving due north out of VA will continue to collapse as they race north and get transferred to the coastal. The northern fringe will continue to erode away so for all of us in my neck of the woods who thinks we are about to have a few inch hit out of this, its very deceiving. Convective bands will set up for a few hours over the Delaware Valley--folks in Delaware Water Gap and south along the river will cash in. You should get 3-4 inches out of it. Places north and west again will probably see flurries at best. Imagine a skater pulling their arms in during a twist--she spins faster, but the extent of her body does not reach as far outward.

Wow! The skater analogy perfectly explains what you are say. Thanks.

D

[MagicalMysteryTour]

What's going on with this storm now? I'm a 3rd shifter and when I went to bed at 6am this morning Mt. Holly was calling for only like 3 to 5" here in Allentown, and now they are calling for 5 - 10". on the Radar it looks as if the storm made a big shift West... Is this the case?

Thanks

[Big Jims Videos]

Generally, I agree, and posted something to that effect earlier today. And, until about the last hour, the radar trends in the western to central portion of PA indicated that out. However, the more recent returns indicate a more northward push (and more robust echoes) to that area of steady snow. Whether the convection to the southeast, along with redevelopment, stops that recent "trend" remains to be seen. I guess you could say, still holding out hope. Tough year up here.

You will do fine in Bangor. Your right along the river. It's not the massive amounts seen to your east and south, but you could top 6 inches out of this. It's very disheartening to watch that radar dry up as the northern returns just disappear. Trust me your year has not been a fraction as painful as mine up here has been. It's become comical really.

[Boreal]

Wow! The skater analogy perfectly explains what you are say. Thanks.

D

Here's to a very large, slow skater with long, outstretched arms.

[Boreal]

You will do fine in Bangor. Your right along the river. It's not the massive amounts seen to your east and south, but you could top 6 inches out of this. It's very disheartening to watch that radar dry up as the northern returns just disappear. Trust me your year has not been a fraction as painful as mine up here has been. It's become comical really.

I hear you. The fact that we've had snow cover down here for a few weeks definitely takes the edge off. I think over the long haul you will clearly have the last laugh.

[Big Jims Videos]

Here's to a very large, slow skater with long, outstretched arms.

[Big Jims Videos]

I hear you. The fact that we've had snow cover down here for a few weeks definitely takes the edge off. I think over the long haul you will clearly have the last laugh.

My mom has had over a foot since December 26th in coastal Monmouth NJ....

I think that has to be some sort of a record. Our house sits in a shady area at the bottom of a small hill though.

[Grothar]

I'm waiting for HPC to claim initialization errors or something.

NO way, you have to go to the NYC thread for those claims or there must a weather balloon down in Georgia

[Voyager]

You will do fine in Bangor. Your right along the river. It's not the massive amounts seen to your east and south, but you could top 6 inches out of this. It's very disheartening to watch that radar dry up as the northern returns just disappear. Trust me your year has not been a fraction as painful as mine up here has been. It's become comical really.

That's exactly what the 12/26 storm did. The radar looked excellent as the northern edge was rapidly approaching the area. It got to just about my location and came to a grinding halt. After that, it was just intermittent light snow as I sat on the edge of the precipitation shield the rest of the storm.

[Grothar]

Here's to a very large, slow skater with long, outstretched arms.

and is not holding a weather balloon and does not skate with any initialization errors

[kpantz]

That megaband moving into MD is monstrous. Curious to see how well it holds together as the energy begins to focus closer to the shore. I want to see that thing hit the PA Turnpike before slowing down and wrapping into the coastal; otherwise, we'll miss out on it up here.

[WeatherGuide]

Jim I think you might be a little too pessimistic here my friend. Yes it will collapse as the coastal takes over, but it really seems to me that anyone from altoona-state college - williamsport s&e is in store for accums in the order of several inches. May not be the good stuff but its not going to be a dusting either. That collapse you talk about is still I think 4-6 hrs away at least.

[eastonwx]

radar filling in south west of Lehigh Valley?

[jdt]

N&W all hail the 18z nam - we're in the blue!

I think you and I are fine. Maybe not jackpot by any means but a solid snow. Now if you believe the HRRR snow accumulation image I saw in the PHI thread eastern Sussex gets 10". Surprise still to be had with this system I suspect. Good for some not so good for others. North of I80 and west of the Delaware is the real danger zone to serious cutoff.

[Big Jims Videos]

Jim I think you might be a little too pessimistic here my friend. Yes it will collapse as the coastal takes over, but it really seems to me that anyone from altoona-state college - williamsport s&e is in store for accums in the order of several inches. May not be the good stuff but its not going to be a dusting either. That collapse you talk about is still I think 4-6 hrs away at least.

As Voyager pointed out, we saw the exact same thing during the Dec 26th storm on the radar. We were left with an inch in the Wyoming Valley--that quickly blew away. Most recent models indicate not even .01 falling up in my neck of the woods. Its a race against time now..

[Boreal]

That megaband moving into MD is monstrous. Curious to see how well it holds together as the energy begins to focus closer to the shore. I want to see that thing hit the PA Turnpike before slowing down and wrapping into the coastal; otherwise, we'll miss out on it up here.

Pretty impressive. Liking the echoes pinwheeling almost slightly west of north, like a figure skater prepping for double lutz or something.

[blinkers88]

Radar filling in very nicely... Should be fun!

[Ej257 snow lover]

I feel from memory that the track of this storm is still west of the 12/26 storm, i can't recall exactly but to me we do have a better chance here because of the track and the nowcast radar

[kpantz]

Radar is collapsing over WV and extreme SW PA, but at this time, holding its own and even blossoming over C PA, MD and N VA. These are good signs. Gotta watch the western flank of the precip shield all evening, though.

Vigilance!

[eastonwx]

after an hour or so of light precip, large flakes beginning to fall here

[LVblizzard]

Light snow mixing with some sleet here. Radar to the southwest looks great, even though we probably won't get in the megaband.

[MagicalMysteryTour]

Sleet and very fine snow pellets here in SW Allentown. Winds are starting to pick up, too. Temp is 32F.

[eastonwx]

upgraded to lt/mod. snow, coating sidewalks, streets, cars here in Martins Creek

[MagicalMysteryTour]

All the precip in VA/MD, etc, is heading NNE on the radar... To me, this storm doesn't look like the previous ones, where the precip shield quickly slid off NE or ENE... Am I right?

[Voyager]

All the precip in VA/MD, etc, is heading NNE on the radar... To me, this storm doesn't look like the previous ones, where the precip shield quickly slid off NE or ENE... Am I right?

Once the energy starts to transfer (and you can see it beginning on radar) I think it will change, and you will see the precip shield collapse toward the developing low.

[Boreal]

Radar is collapsing over WV and extreme SW PA, but at this time, holding its own and even blossoming over C PA, MD and N VA. These are good signs. Gotta watch the western flank of the precip shield all evening, though.

Vigilance!

Time to bust out the trained eyes.

[MagicalMysteryTour]

<br />Once the energy starts to transfer (and you can see it beginning on radar) I think it will change, and you will see the precip shield collapse toward the developing low.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

I agree and understand that, but what I'm seeing and reading on other forums is that the low might be coming closer to the shore than previously expected... Plus another disturbance over IN/OH that might be trying to phase with the coastal. What do you guys think?

Something had to change because Mt. Holly had Allentown for only like 3 - 5" this morning before I went to bed and now they have us at 5 - 10".

[jdt]

20Z RUC close to hitting NW areas hard. As it is still about .5" qpf Sparta to Allentown less NW much more SE.

[Boreal]

20Z RUC close to hitting NW areas hard. As it is still about .5" qpf Sparta to Allentown less NW much more SE.

Interesting, and best RUC image i've seen yet today wrt LV etc.