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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

Hey guys - just got in. Mod - Heavy snow here in Easton, 30.9F. Roads are starting to get slick.

So it looks like this thing may be over performing yes? Or is it just "starting earlier" meaning it will "end earlier"? Could this actually squeeze more than 6+" out for our area given we've had the benefit of it starting much earlier than anticipated?

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ParanormalWx

ParanormalWx

Posted
Posted

Hey guys - just got in. Mod - Heavy snow here in Easton, 30.9F. Roads are starting to get slick.

So it looks like this thing may be over performing yes? Or is it just "starting earlier" meaning it will "end earlier"? Could this actually squeeze more than 6+" out for our area given we've had the benefit of it starting much earlier than anticipated?

The main batch comes later this afternoon or evening. This first batch was modeled up to 2". The second batch hopefully doesn't slide to our south.......

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Keith O

Keith O

Posted
Posted

Maybe grasping at straws here but seems 6Z NAM was about 50-75 miles to far SE with this initial shot of snow, my only hope is its about the same on the 2nd shot otherwise it 12"+ for SE of here and a solid coating to 1" here. Ashame the ski areas of the Poconos and and NW NJ keep missing the big snows but least been cold enough for them to make snow which seems they will need to continue to rely on.

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

Why do I suspect this early Wednesday surprise is showing us the way to where this evenings best snows will fall? hmmm Not again with the cut off near or over NW NJ. lol Despite that still have a decent winter snow wise just not and epic one.

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

Why do I suspect this early Wednesday surprise is showing us the way to where this evenings best snows will fall? hmmm Not again with the cut off near or over NW NJ. lol Despite that still have a decent winter snow wise just not and epic one.

agree, looks like the nam totals. LOL

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

agree, looks like the nam totals. LOL

Once again it will be close it appears. Just have to wait and see exactly how sharp it will be and where it will be. For us on the SE side of the NW region we have the best opportunity to cash in the most. Whether it is just a few pennies found on the street or a &100 bill remains to be seen. Thinking more then pennies but probably not a $100 bill either. Just enough to keep my winter moving forward at a bit above average snow wise. Season total for me not including this mornings coating is 26.5".

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

Maybe grasping at straws here but seems 6Z NAM was about 50-75 miles to far SE with this initial shot of snow, my only hope is its about the same on the 2nd shot otherwise it 12"+ for SE of here and a solid coating to 1" here. Ashame the ski areas of the Poconos and and NW NJ keep missing the big snows but least been cold enough for them to make snow which seems they will need to continue to rely on.

That is a curious observation and not sure what to make of it. There was little indications to this mornings blast (well light snow for us a mini blast PHI to NYC) especially being so intense. Whether that means the NAM is off and still needs to correct for later or this just passes by and it is back to you regularly scheduled sharp cutoff this evening remains to be seen. It has been the winter of narrow heavy bands with sharp cutoffs and all of them have been nearly over the same area. Is there any reason that should change? Well besides us up here wanting it to. Several days ago the cities where worried about rain ... hmmmm. lol

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Keith O

Keith O

Posted
Posted

Could not agree more, hoping to find at least a $50 but probably just some quarters. Again, like you, living on the SE side of the NW region is our biggest hope. One thing that we have going for us is that the cold allows us to "keep" our snowfall longer and we are running slightly above average but just hurts to be just on the outside looking in at some of these more epic events the past 2 years. Would love to see some thundersnow that most everyone SE aof here has seen at one point or another in past 2 years.

Once again it will be close it appears. Just have to wait and see exactly how sharp it will be and where it will be. For us on the SE side of the NW region we have the best opportunity to cash in the most. Whether it is just a few pennies found on the street or a &100 bill remains to be seen. Thinking more then pennies but probably not a $100 bill either. Just enough to keep my winter moving forward at a bit above average snow wise. Season total for me not including this mornings coating is 26.5".

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RkTec

RkTec

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup: Lehigh Valley back to a warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NJZ007-PAZ061-062-262330-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/
WARREN-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
1021 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR RAIN
 MIXED IN DURING THE DAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 8 AM AND
 1 PM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM AND
 MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
 COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS: SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
 HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN PICK UP
 AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
 EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED AS ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.
 TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE EVENING
 COMMUTE PROGRESSES.

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
Posted

A good reason Morris need to be split in N and S

new WSW here for 8-12" tonight and 2-3 miles from me is a wwa in sussex for 3-6"

BTW 8-12 insnt going to happen

Keep an eye on that slug moving through SE PA. May clip sections of Morris Co., and the western flank seems to be getting organized.

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

A good reason Morris need to be split in N and S

new WSW here for 8-12" tonight and 2-3 miles from me is a wwa in sussex for 3-6"

BTW 8-12 insnt going to happen

Probably not but it will once again be so so close. Probably another painful evening of watching the radar or maybe just maybe a nice slight westward job. Or maybe I will just not watch and read a book and let nature take its course. lol

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
Posted

Radar looks to be breaking up over parts of western Northampton / Lehigh counties and breaking fast. Can anyone confirm this?

I've been under weak/no echoes for a while and still have light snow falling. Further, I'm liking the trends to our SW/SSW. More echoes developing invof Reading and heading our way. We're not going to be blanketed all day, mind you, so let's manage the expectations. :)

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lab94

lab94

Posted
Posted

I've been under weak/no echoes for a while and still have light snow falling. Further, I'm liking the trends to our SW/SSW. More echoes developing invof Reading and heading our way. We're not going to be blanketed all day, mind you, so let's manage the expectations. :)

I was never thinking more than 6" I would be happy

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goombatommy

goombatommy

Posted
Posted

I've been under weak/no echoes for a while and still have light snow falling. Further, I'm liking the trends to our SW/SSW. More echoes developing invof Reading and heading our way. We're not going to be blanketed all day, mind you, so let's manage the expectations. :)

I was going to say that but was waiting for someone else to say it first lol. The echos to our SW/SSW are filling in nicely. However, it also looks like a tight west-fringe gradient is trying to force its way on to it as well.

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Keith O

Keith O

Posted
Posted

Would agree with that, also appears heavier and further N than any model showed at this time. Does that translate to better amount for us NW fringers tonight, we'll have to wait and see.

Looking at the radar, I just don't see how that slug of precip in WV completely misses northern areas later this evening.

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Boreal

Boreal

Posted
Posted

Looking at the radar, I just don't see how that slug of precip in WV completely misses northern areas later this evening.

While it looks promising, I suspect it will begin to taper down from it's NW flank to the SE as the coastal takes over. It will likely be radar Deja vu later tonight. Unfortunately, while models busted some this AM, they did fine for much of this area and there is little trending in the models for significant qpf north of Bucks/Mont Counties for round 2. Hoping the models are wrong, but just can't see it. Seasonal trend is crazy.

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

Would agree with that, also appears heavier and further N than any model showed at this time. Does that translate to better amount for us NW fringers tonight, we'll have to wait and see.

It will be another close call it seems. That area will not translate directly NE I suspect. But will tend to translate more ENE then sort of breakup and or sort of merge with the coastal as it develops its CCB. Again it seems per almost all the guidance at this point there will be a cut off on the NW side. How sharp and exactly where is the big question. It could go from 2-4" NE PA to 3-6" NW NJ to 6-12"+ remainder of central & NNJ thru NYC and LI. Every storm has its surprises both good and bad depending on where you sit. This one has already had this mornings surprise for many now let us see what round two will bring later. Fingers crossed hoping to verify last nights final call which had my back yard in the 6-10" range. Thinking currently is I will be very happy to verify the 6" but 3-6" may be the better idea for mby and points N&W.

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