Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

[Ecsnow]

definately something wrong with ncep gfs graphics from hr 24 to 30

[Grothar]

I'm thinking 4-8" for the LV right now.

Looks good but would hope 10"-12". I really believe JB has it right with the 18". He has been calling this for 3 days now. MY map says 14" but i went high

[Pohopoco]

The most we had from any 1 storm has been 7" and that took snow the day after that really wasn't expected,yet we've got about 8 OTG yet...I'll take whatever we can squeeze outta this...1 of these storms is gonna do what it want's and change the pattern...it happened last year,it can happen again...BTW,checkout the Temp.s at all the main E PA stations at 10...It's hard to believe,but I'm seeing lot's of 30.9...

[Voyager]

Looks good but would hope 10"-12". I really believe JB has it right with the 18". He has been calling this for 3 days now. MY map says 14" but i went high

JB saying 18".....for the Lehigh Valley????

[WeatherGuide]

JB saying 18".....for the Lehigh Valley????

He's on crack if he is. Must be his global cooling theory and that horrible January forecast interfering with his judgement

18" for the LV is a straight weenie call. Absolutely NOTHING there to support something like that.

[Voyager]

He's on crack if he is. Must be his global cooling theory and that horrible January forecast interfering with his judgement

18" for the LV is a straight weenie call. Absolutely NOTHING there to support something like that.

Indeed. That's why I was questioning his call.

[Grothar]

Indeed. That's why I was questioning his call.

Well thats what he said according to the other threads. Now it looks like we will be under a WAA in the next few hours according to the latest models. I just want to point out that I have never seen a Miller A storm dump less than 6 inches on us. I still say we get 6"to 8"

[RkTec]

I'm figuring 2-4" for the Lehigh Valley, unfortunately.

[rygar]

So, what did we learn? Follow the seasonal trend(s)!

jdt and lab94 - i will be a the mason st pub tomorrow night if you care to join me. then i will come back home and sweep the snow off my walkway.

[Grothar]

So, what did we learn? Follow the seasonal trend(s)!

We learned the following:

1. We do not belong in the same thread as NYC and PHL

2. That CCB will never be over the LV

3. That models that indicate that we are getting 12" are full of sh*&.

4. That even JB had hopes for us but were crushed in tonights runs, which pitiful in my eyes

5. That one failed balloon launch screwed up the NAM run which led to convective feedback

6. That the words convective feedback loop problems or initialization errors are common vocabulary for model runs for those in the NYC or PHL threads when it appears that LV or Schuylkill Cnty is to receive a foot of snow.

7. That the LV thread can have 24 or more pages yet they still have to break up PHL and NYC for infighting

8. Finally, that tombo does a great job helping the LV posters

[NortheastPAWx]

We learned the following:

1. We do not belong in the same thread as NYC and PHL

2. That CCB will never be over the LV

3. That models that indicate that we are getting 12" are full of sh*&.

4. That even JB had hopes for us but were crushed in tonights runs, which pitiful in my eyes

5. That one failed balloon launch screwed up the NAM run which led to convective feedback

6. That the words convective feedback loop problems or initialization errors are common vocabulary for model runs for those in the NYC or PHL threads when it appears that LV or Schuylkill Cnty is to receive a foot of snow.

7. That the LV thread can have 24 or more pages yet they still have to break up PHL and NYC for infighting

8. Finally, that tombo does a great job helping the LV posters

9. Until there's a pattern change...never believe anyone that says "This will be the one for the LV/Pocs/C PA"

[Boreal]

Let's start a thread for all of us that are right in the middle of both forecast areas yet still on the outside!

Sigh.

[lab94]

So, what did we learn? Follow the seasonal trend(s)!

jdt and lab94 - i will be a the mason st pub tomorrow night if you care to join me. then i will come back home and sweep the snow off my walkway.

LOL , Hey we always have the 6z runs.

[Grothar]

LOL , Hey we always have the 6z runs.

Thats like making a 56 yard field goal in the last 3 seconds with a 30 mph wind blowing at you and field covered in 8 inches of snow at Lincoln Field

[Boreal]

Ok. Looks like GGEM threw parts of the area something like a 13-18 mm bone.

[Boreal]

GFS ensemble was also better than any of it's prior runs today, but soon enough it will nowwishing time.

[RkTec]

00Z Euro QPF. Much drier for our area compared to the past few runs.

qpf

phl .75

nyc .75

balt 1

abe .3-.4

fwn .3-.35

avp .1-.2

hazleton .25-.3

mdt .5

ttn .75

rdg .5

acy 1-1.1

dov 1-1.25

[jdt]

So, what did we learn? Follow the seasonal trend(s)!

jdt and lab94 - i will be a the mason st pub tomorrow night if you care to join me. then i will come back home and sweep the snow off my walkway.

Not again. lol Though I think we will do a little better then sweeping.lol Mason Street pup is just over the mountain form me but funny thing I have never been there actually.

[Voyager]

00Z Euro QPF. Much drier for our area compared to the past few runs.

So for all the biching that was going on about the GFS/NAM models, they sniffed out the seasonal trends and the Euro somewhat caved to them. If I remember, they were the first to take everything south and east while the Euro was one to continue to show more of an inland hit.

[Sunny and Warm]

Looks like the storm won't be too bad for the valley. My Holly says a general 4-6". Philly won't do that much better. I know we want more, but be thankful for what you get. I remember the 1997-98 winter. I was doing landscaping in January because of the warmth and lack of snow!

[rygar]

So for all the biching that was going on about the GFS/NAM models, they sniffed out the seasonal trends and the Euro somewhat caved to them. If I remember, they were the first to take everything south and east while the Euro was one to continue to show more of an inland hit.

Complete flip of the Euro for our area. 12z yesterday had it at 1-1.25 for QPF, now it is .35. That is a major cave.

Again, just for my area though.

[penndotguy]

Well I didnt expect to be in this early, Doing the rural route just stopped for coffee steady snow out here temp according to my truck is 28. snow accumulating on the roads? not if I've been through ha ha. Have great day I will try to do updates if possible on road conditions later on. stay safe

[ParanormalWx]

Light snow

29.1F

[RkTec]

Moderate snow

Temp: 28.6

0.2" accumulation, large dendrites falling

[Bulldawg]

Snowing pretty good here in Bethlehem. Got a good coating on everything.

[WeatherGuide]

Well waking up this morning to snow falling was a bit of a surprise.

[wederwarrior]

Looks like the storm won't be too bad for the valley. My Holly says a general 4-6". Philly won't do that much better. I know we want more, but be thankful for what you get. I remember the 1997-98 winter. I was doing landscaping in January because of the warmth and lack of snow!

+1

Coating in Emmaus.

[eastonwx]

Snowing pretty good here in Bethlehem. Got a good coating on everything.

ditto in Easton

[Big Jims Videos]

take what you can get out of this first batch. Sadly its not reaching the ground along I-81 up here and the second batch will slide south and east of us. Im still sticking with my call of nothing to less than an inch for AVP and surrounding areas.

[penndotguy]

Take your time out there it is a mess, were doin the best we can Ive been in since 4:30am, gonna be a long day and night I suppose