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Lehigh Valley to Reading to Southern Poconos to NW NJ ...obs and banter!

mcgin

By mcgin,
in New York City Metro

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PoconoD

PoconoD

Posted
Posted

The gradient in Luzerne County alone goes from nothing to 5 inches of snow...

Nothing just n/w of me, 5 inches down at the Luzerne/Lackawanna/Carbon boarder.

The movement of that low is too west to east according to what the models are spitting out. I believe the only way we could get bigger snow accumilations is for the low be further norh as it tracks southwest to northeast going by us. This will probably impact p-type issues to the south and east. I am new at reading models but to me the angulation of that low movement is causing less phasing until it's northeast of us and is also causeing the tighter precip gradient. Maybe what I am seeing is just me being inexperienced. :whistle:

D

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
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The movement of that low is too west to east according to what the models are spitting out. I believe the only way we could get bigger snow accumilations is for the low be further norh as it tracks southwest to northeast going by us. This will probably impact p-type issues to the south and east. I am new at reading models but to me the angulation of that low movement is causing less phasing until it's northeast of us and is also causeing the tighter precip gradient. Maybe what I am seeing is just me being inexperienced. :whistle:

D

That's exactly right. When the low bombs, the nw areas tend to dry out faster. We've been in a two year pattern where lows tend to BOMB off the Jersey Shore, thus robbing the precip shield from the moisture n/w and sucking in dryer air, while areas to the east get these amazing convective heavy snows, thunder snows, and blizzard conditions. They may stall for a few hours then move ene, which really inhibits any of the substancial precip to move further north and west, giving the folks in NJ a mega storm, and the folks out by me flurries with the sun peeking through clouds and a cold wind... Someone in central NJ is going to make out big time with this storm...middlesex county is my best guess..they will be under a convective band, with a low rapidly deepening...and heavy wet snow and probably thunder snow.

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

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I think the biggest frustration out of all this; given we were never meant to be in the jackpot zone, but this was going to be our storm. The models had it, everything. A good 6 - 12" for our area; also the most shown for any storm to date this season. Given within the past 24 hours nearly most models came back with the gradient lines from hell and sheared most of our area - we'll be lucky to see 2 - 4" out of this storm. And who wins in all this again - you got it, central NJ NE-ward. That is where the frustration in many lie.

EDIT: At this stage, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mt. Holly shave us down to a WWA down to about the bucks co. north / Delaware river West by 0z.

I am surprised nws bing went with a wwa for luzerne--probably because of those areas south and east in the county near the monroe/carbon/lackawanna boarder.

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Grothar

Grothar

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I think the biggest frustration out of all this; given we were never meant to be in the jackpot zone, but this was going to be our storm. The models had it, everything. A good 6 - 12" for our area; also the most shown for any storm to date this season. Given within the past 24 hours nearly most models came back with the gradient lines from hell and sheared most of our area - we'll be lucky to see 2 - 4" out of this storm. And who wins in all this again - you got it, central NJ NE-ward. That is where the frustration in many lie.

I agree. But those who reside fro State College to Harrisburg and from Harrisburg to Tamaqua/Hazelton- well they have seen literally jack crap in snowfall. This has got to be the biggest reverse of snowfall patterns in the history of record keeping for this area of PA . Here 's wishing a screw up in the models for your tomorrow so as you become the jackpot instead of NJ

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chrisNJ

chrisNJ

Posted
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I see people all the time posting things like "the latest GFS shows about .45 of precip here." What is the best spot to find those maps that show the precip maps per model? Sorry if I should already know this

Use these links:

http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmpo.txt

The second one is used for NAM after the 0z and 12z runs..just type in your closest station code after the "k"

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mcgin

mcgin

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You do realize that this is quite normal. Large snowstorms around here are the exception and not the rule.. more common to get medium sized dumps of 4-6" a few times a year than anything more. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Whats not normal is for NYC and Philadelphia to get more than us. Used to be a north to south gradient for my my whole life(almost 40 y.o.). Yeah we get smaller storms normally but never , ever did phl and nyc get consistently more than us here in the interior. Its very, very frustrating and its pretty obvious that you haven't lived here your whole life because you would be pretty angry too.

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penndotguy

penndotguy

Posted
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Im kinda interested to see what our plan is tomorrow, when I left this afternoon we informed that we may only be looking@ 1-3" Im not so sure now. Im sure when I get to work I wont be home till Thurs. eve or maybe Friday morning. sigh.. But I love it Ill take these smaller events anyday maybe an occasional 6-12 ha ha. anyway good luck I hope the snow Gods smile upon everyone.

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mcgin

mcgin

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Im kinda interested to see what our plan is tomorrow, when I left this afternoon we informed that we may only be looking@ 1-3" Im not so sure now. Im sure when I get to work I wont be home till Thurs. eve or maybe Friday morning. sigh.. But I love it Ill take these smaller events anyday maybe an occasional 6-12 ha ha. anyway good luck I hope the snow Gods smile upon everyone.

Thanks so much for posting info in our thread. I hope you get OT.:thumbsup:

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Voyager

Voyager

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Im kinda interested to see what our plan is tomorrow, when I left this afternoon we informed that we may only be looking@ 1-3" Im not so sure now. Im sure when I get to work I wont be home till Thurs. eve or maybe Friday morning. sigh.. But I love it Ill take these smaller events anyday maybe an occasional 6-12 ha ha. anyway good luck I hope the snow Gods smile upon everyone.

Are you a full-timer, or one of those reserve snow guys? I drive a tri-axle dump so I have experience and had thought about applying for a temporary snow position. It just seemed too hit or miss for me so I didn't follow through with it.

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WeatherGuide

WeatherGuide

Posted
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Whats not normal is for NYC and Philadelphia to get more than us. Used to be a north to south gradient for my my whole life(almost 40 y.o.). Yeah we get smaller storms normally but never , ever did phl and nyc get consistently more than us here in the interior. Its very, very frustrating and its pretty obvious that you haven't lived here your whole life because you would be pretty angry too.

First off, chill out. I have lived here all my life, and yes the tracks of these storms in general lately are unusual but it's the pattern we are in. A lot has to do with the placement of high pressure which is preventing storms from coming up the coast. But this has happened before.

The weenies really need to chill in here.

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Grothar

Grothar

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First off, chill out. I have lived here all my life, and yes the tracks of these storms in general lately are unusual but it's the pattern we are in. A lot has to do with the placement of high pressure which is preventing storms from coming up the coast. But this has happened before.

The weenies really need to chill in here.

children- no fighting. this not the NYC thread. Yes, the placement of that frickin high is bothersome but the one issue we need to concentrate on is that it is historical and we will not see this pattern setup in our lifetime. I always say , there is place for all that whitestuff to go and I am glad it is not in my basement

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mcgin

mcgin

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First off, chill out. I have lived here all my life, and yes the tracks of these storms in general lately are unusual but it's the pattern we are in. A lot has to do with the placement of high pressure which is preventing storms from coming up the coast. But this has happened before.

The weenies really need to chill in here.

Weenie, I'm not. Please state when this has happened on a scale like this. I would be delighted to hear your reply.

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mcgin

mcgin

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children- no fighting. this not the NYC thread. Yes, the placement of that frickin high is bothersome but the one issue we need to concentrate on is that it is historical and we will not see this pattern setup in our lifetime. I always say , there is place for all that whitestuff to go and I am glad it is not in my basement

I'm done, thanks :hug:

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
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Weenie,  I'm not. Please state when this has happened on a scale like this. I would be delighted to hear your reply.

i agree with you, all these storms inside the benchmark and precip shields that are very narrow.  Maybe the benchmark moved lol

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_AR_

_AR_

Posted
Posted

TWC is predicting 6 to 10 with 12+ in some areas for philly. Is the sweetspot for this storm moving more to east now? Havent been on since early this morning when it seemed like the lancaster through Lehigh Valley where going to get the best of this one?! Thx.

Yes, unfortunately the higher totals have moved southeast from yesterday's forecasts. Still holding on hope for a surprise.

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